Draft risk study: Linebackers
By position: QB | RB | WR | O-line | DE | DT | LB | CB | S | Study wrap
They are brought in for different reasons -- to provide a pass rush, to shore up a suspect run defense, or because they are a good "scheme fit." They are linebackers, and while some -- like Brian Bosworth and LaVar Arrington -- have achieved glamour status, most come off the board mid-to-late first round.
Linebackers can rocket up predraft rankings by running fast at pro days and combine workouts, which often are not true indicators of those players' skills on the field. Below, we'll take a look at the stars, the busts, and everything in between.
Success criteria, first-round linebackers
Metric-wise, this is a tough one to gauge. There are many factors -- such as scheme -- that will determine a player's statistics from the linebacker position. Some guys are used more as pass rushers and some are used as run stoppers. That said, we've gone with the baseline of at least 80 games played, or at least one Pro Bowl appearance.
| 1989 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Chiefs | 4 | Derrick Thomas, Alabama | 169 | 9 | No |
| Bucs | 6 | Broderick Thomas, Nebraska | 144 | 0 | No |
| Cardinals | 16 | Eric Hill, LSU | 160 | 0 | No |
| 49ers | 28 | Keith DeLong, Tennessee | 64 | 0 | Yes |
| 1990 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Chargers | 5 | Junior Seau, USC | 241 | 11 | No |
| Patriots | 8 | Chris Singleton, Arizona | 91 | 0 | No |
| Bengals | 12 | James Francis, Baylor | 143 | 0 | Yes |
| Chiefs | 13 | Percy Snow, Michigan State | 40 | 0 | Yes |
| Saints | 14 | Renaldo Turnbull, West Virginia | 14 | 1 | No |
| Packers | 18 | Tony Bennett, Mississippi | 108 | 0 | No |
| 1991 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Broncos | 4 | Mike Croel, Nebraska | 101 | 0 | No |
| Steelers | 15 | Huey Richardson, Florida | 16 | 0 | Yes |
| Bengals | 18 | Alfred Williams, Colorado | 128 | 0 | No |
After a promising rookie year, in which he was named ROY by various publications, Croel tailed a bit, and had an undistinguished career. Richardson was a huge bust, appearing in only 16 career games, and Williams was adequate for the Bengals. Some solid 'backers including Bryan Cox, Corey Miller, and Mark Maddox came out of this draft's later rounds.
| 1992 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Colts | 2 | Quentin Coryatt, Texas A&M | 82 | 0 | No |
| Cowboys | 24 | Robert Jones, East Carolina | 151 | 0 | No |
Coryatt was drafted on the basis of a Herculean physique, workout, and one hit that he made on a quick slant in which he nearly ended the life of an unfortunate college receiver. Coryatt was decent for the Colts, but never developed into the dominant force they thought they were getting. In fact, he barely snuck over the bust metric, appearing in 82 games.
| 1993 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Jets | 4 | Marvin Jones, Florida State | 142 | 0 | No |
| Packers | 15 | Wayne Simmons, Clemson | 90 | 0 | No |
| 49ers | 27 | Todd Kelly, Tennessee | 46 | 0 | Yes |
See a trend developing here? The 49ers take a LB/DE tweener from Tennessee, and it quickly becomes apparent that there isn't a place for him at the next level. Simmons was solid, Jones a stalwart for the Jets.
| 1994 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Patriots | 4 | Willie McGinest, USC | 185 | 2 | No |
| Colts | 5 | Trev Alberts, Nebraska | 29 | 0 | Yes |
| Cardinals | 10 | Jamir Miller, UCLA | 121 | 1 | No |
| Bears | 11 | John Thierry, Alcorn State | 131 | 0 | No |
| Raiders | 22 | Rob Frederickson, Michigan State | 128 | 0 | No |
Again, a treasure trove of LBs quantity-wise, and a pretty good quality as well. McGinest sort of defined the 3-4 OLB/DE during his tenure in New England, while Miller and Frederickson were solid if not spectacular. Alberts, due in some part to a series of injuries, was the only obvious bust in this group.
| 1995 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Saints | 13 | Mark Fields, Washington State | 137 | 1 | No |
| Bucs | 26 | Derrick Brooks, Florida State | 192 | 9 | No |
| Browns | 30 | Craig Powell, Ohio State | 14 | 0 | Yes |
This was a great year all-around for linebackers, with Fields and Brooks, a potential Hall of Fame candidate, both starring, and the very productive Johnson going in Round 2. John Holocek and Stephen Boyd -- two more very productive linebackers -- went in Round 5. Powell, however, appeared in only 14 games.
| 1996 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Jaguars | 2 | Kevin Hardy, Illinois | 134 | 1 | No |
| Broncos | 15 | John Mobley, Kutztown | 105 | 1 | No |
| Ravens | 26 | Ray Lewis, Miami | 148 | 5 | No |
Hardy and Mobley were both very productive NFL linebackers, and the cream of this crop is, of course, your favorite player, God's own linebacker, Ray Lewis. We're starting to see a trend and that trend is that it is pretty safe to pick a linebacker in the first round.
| 1997 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Ravens | 4 | Peter Boulware, Florida State | 127 | 3 | No |
| Jets | 8 | James Farrior, Virginia | 152 | 1 | No |
| Vikings | 20 | Dwayne Rudd, Alabama | 109 | 0 | No |
Another really solid year. Boulware, in spite of injuries, and Farrior have both enjoyed standout careers, and Rudd made the rounds as a solid starter. Jamie Sharper, Derek Smith, Dexter Coakley and Mike Vrabel all came out of this draft as well.
| 1998 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Falcons | 12 | Keith Brooking, Georgia Tech | 129 | 4 | No |
| Bengals | 13 | Takeo Spikes, Auburn | 126 | 2 | No |
| Seahawks | 15 | Anthony Simmons, Clemson | 88 | 0 | No |
| Bengals | 17 | Brian Simmons, North Carolina | 121 | 0 | No |
Four picks -- four extremely solid NFL players. And how about the Bengals drafting two starting LBs in the same first round? A rare stroke of good drafting from a franchise better known for taking Akili Smith, David Klingler and Ki-Jana Carter.
| 1999 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Lions | 9 | Chris Claiborne, USC | 99 | 0 | No |
| Patriots | 28 | Andy Katzenmoyer, Ohio State | 24 | 0 | Yes |
| Broncos | 31 | Al Wilson, Tennessee | 125 | 4 | No |
All good things must come to an end. Claiborne has been ordinary at best, and Andy Katzenmoyer was a big-name washout. Count me in among those who thought Katzenmoyer would be a stud at the NFL level. Al Wilson redeems this group. For what it's worth, Mike Peterson and Dat Nguyen went later.
| 2000 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Redskins | 2 | LaVar Arrington, Penn State | 85 | 3 | No |
| Bears | 9 | Brian Urlacher, New Mexico | 105 | 5 | No |
| 49ers | 16 | Julian Peterson, Michigan State | 95 | 3 | No |
| Colts | 28 | Rob Morris, BYU | 97 | 0 | No |
| Titans | 30 | Keith Bulluck, Syracuse | 111 | 1 | No |
A very solid group here, with Urlacher, a future Hall of Famer, leading the pack, followed closely by Bulluck and Peterson. Morris has been a starter most of his career, which considering his draft slot (28th) makes me wary of affixing the bust label. Arrington, like Mike Vick, is a player you give multiple chances to because of his prodigious athletic ability. After a fast start he has disappointed.
| 2001 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Panthers | 11 | Dan Morgan, Miami | 56 | 1 | No |
Morgan and his multiple injuries comprise the entirety of this first-round class. Morgan was a great player -- remember his inspired performance in the Super Bowl a few years ago -- but has been undone by his inability to stay out of the training room. It's hard to call a guy this good a bust.
| 2002 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Raiders | 23 | Napoleon Harris, Northwestern | 74 | 0 | No |
| Rams | 31 | Robert Thomas, UCLA | 68 | 0 | Yes |
Compared to what we've seen in previous years, these guys are both pretty blah. Harris is preparing to play for his third team, and Thomas hasn't made an impact. The fact that Harris is still considered a viable NFL starter keeps him off the bust list.
| 2003 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Packers | 29 | Nick Barnett, Oregon State | 62 | 0 | No |
Another quiet year, with only the productive Barnett going off the board. The second round was fruitful, however, producing Boss Bailey, E.J. Henderson and Victor Hobson. Pro Bowler Lance Briggs came in the fourth.
Crunching the Numbers: First-Round LBs, 1989-2003
Number of LBs drafted: 48
Notable busts: Andy Katzenmoyer, Huey Richardson, Percy Snow
Number of busts: 8
Bust percentage: 16 percent
Number of wideouts with at least one Pro Bowl appearance: 19
Pro Bowl percentage: 39 percent
Borderline guys who could be called busts: Quentin Coryatt, Mike Croel
For the sake of comparison
Percentage of first-round RB busts: 45 percent
Percentage of first-round QB busts: 53 percent
Conclusions
Linebacker appears to be a safe position, generating lots of Pro Bowl appearances and very few busts. There are reasons for this, the first possibly being that linebacker is an easier position to project physically, and it is also a fairly "instinctive" position, as opposed to a position like quarterback with a higher learning curve. Another reason is that I could have been too easy on my criteria; however, I think linebackers just panned out more often.
Also, a linebacker generally isn't expected to come in and be the "savior" of a franchise, in the way that many first-round RBs and QBs are. This bodes well for a bad team like Detroit, which might have reached to grab Ernie Sims last season, when it could have had Matt Leinart. Sims might not develop into a big star but is a safe bet to have a long career.
Ted Kluck is not a scientist, rather he is the author of three books, including "Facing Tyson: Fifteen Fighters, Fifteen Stories" (Lyons Press 2006) and a full-fledged draft geek. He recently spent a season playing professional football as a member of the Battle Creek Crunch (GLIFL) where he was, without a doubt, a bust.
