Draft risk study: Defensive tackles
By position: QB | RB | WR | O-line | DE | DT | LB | CB | S | Study wrap
While it is much less a glamour position than defensive end, a fair number of defensive tackles have been taken off the board in recent years. Below, we'll use the simple metric of 80 games played plus a Pro Bowl selection to determine success. The logic being that, despite scheme, if a player is playing consistently and being recognized in the postseason, he was probably worthy of a first-round pick.
A number of very good DTs grade out as first-round busts but would have been very good if not for injuries (such as Steve Emtman).
1989: No first-round DTs
| 1990 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Seahawks | 3 | Cortez Kennedy, Miami | 167 | 7 | No |
| Patriots | 10 | Ray Agnew, N.C. State | 157 | 0 | No |
| 1991 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Cowboys | 1 | Russell Maryland, Miami | 154 | 1 | No |
| Cardinals | 6 | Eric Swann, (semipro) | 127 | 2 | No |
| Redskins | 17 | Bobby Wilson, Michigan State | 42 | 0 | Yes |
| Lions | 20 | Kelvin Pritchett, Mississippi | 208 | 0 | No |
| 49ers | 25 | Ted Washington, Louisville | 231 | 3 | No |
Swann, a semipro player with no real college experience, was taken almost solely on the basis of his measurables and made two Pro Bowl appearances. Washington has been a very good run stopper, and Maryland was good, though probably not overall No. 1 material. Pritchett started forever in Detroit.
| 1992 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Colts | 1 | Steve Emtman, Washington | 50 | 0 | Yes |
| Rams | 3 | Sean Gilbert, Pittsburgh | 147 | 1 | No |
| Raiders | 16 | Chester McGlockton, Clemson | 179 | 4 | No |
Emtman was going to be a star but was undone by his knee and neck injuries. Gilbert went to one Pro Bowl, but is perhaps most famous for signing a huge free-agent deal, and McGlockton was the prototype inside run stuffer.
| 1993 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Broncos | 11 | Dan Williams, Toledo | 86 | 0 | Yes |
| Eagles | 24 | Leonard Renfro, Colorado | 23 | 0 | Yes |
| 49ers | 26 | Dana Stubblefield, Kansas | 154 | 3 | No |
Things tailed off considerably in 1993, with Dan Williams and his multiple knee injuries ending up a disappointment in Denver. He sneaked over our longevity metric but is still, I think, a bust. Renfro only played 23 games for the Eagles, who may have set a record for futility in drafting defensive linemen (see defensive ends).
| 1994 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Bengals | 1 | Dan Wilkinson, Ohio State | 195 | 0 | No |
| Seahawks | 8 | Sam Adams, Texas A&M | 195 | 3 | No |
| Dolphins | 20 | Tim Bowens, Mississippi | 156 | 2 | No |
| Oilers | 26 | Henry Ford, Arkansas | 133 | 0 | No |
Was Big Daddy Wilkinson worth the No. 1 overall pick? Probably not, but he also wasn't an abject failure as much as he was a product of some very effective pre-draft hype (remember the video of him jumping up and down off a table?). Adams and Bowens were very good, and Henry Ford, in addition to inventing the assembly line (sorry) also had a nice NFL career.
| 1995 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Bucs | 12 | Warren Sapp Miami | 182 | 7 | No |
| Colts | 15 | Ellis Johnson, Florida | 149 | 0 | No |
| Lions | 20 | Luther Elliss, Utah | 133 | 2 | No |
The Bucs rolled the dice on a pudgy-but-athletic prospect from Miami named Warren Sapp who had a history of recreational drug use. The result? A seven-time Pro Bowl selection. Sometimes character is overrated. Regarding Ellis Johnson, I am impressed by how many defensive linemen Florida has put into the league.
| 1996 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Dolphins | 20 | Daryl Gardener, Baylor | 102 | 0 | No |
Nobody thinks "star" when the name Daryl Gardener is mentioned. He was, however, a solid NFL starter. Grinders Shane Burton and Steve Martin, as well as star La'Roi Glover all went later in this draft.
| 1997 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Raiders | 2 | Darrell Russell, USC | 83 | 2 | No |
Russell started fast, and then flamed out equally fast as a result of drug issues. Worth it?
| 1998 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Packers | 19 | Vonnie Holliday, North Carolina | 107 | 0 | No |
Vonnie Holliday = solid-if-not-spectacular (see Daryl Gardener).
| 1999 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Bucs | 15 | Anthony McFarland, LSU | 93 | 0 | No |
| 49ers | 24 | Reggie McGrew, Florida | 24 | 0 | Yes |
| Vikings | 29 | Dimitrius Underwood, Michigan State | 19 | 0 | Yes |
The Vikings overlooked some bizarre behavior to grab Dimitrius Underwood, the ultimate boom-or-bust type of player. He busted. Ditto for Reggie McGrew.
| 2000 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Eagles | 6 | Corey Simon, Florida State | 91 | 1 | No |
| Vikings | 25 | Chris Hovan, Boston College | 109 | 0 | No |
The Eagles finally got one right, as Simon went to a Pro Bowl. Hovan's career has been up and down, but that face paint really is something isn't it?
| 2001 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Browns | 3 | Gerard Warren, Florida | 91 | 0 | Yes |
| Rams | 12 | Damione Lewis, Miami | 85 | 0 | Yes |
| Jaguars | 13 | Marcus Stroud, Georgia | 91 | 3 | No |
| Steelers | 19 | Casey Hampton, Texas | 85 | 3 | No |
| Rams | 29 | Ryan Pickett, Ohio State | 91 | 0 | Yes |
These studies have given me a whole new respect for how badly Cleveland has drafted over the years. Add to that list, Gerard Warren. The Rams whiffed twice in this class, with Lewis and Pickett both doing very little. Stroud and Hampton, though, have been stars.
| 2002 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Chiefs | 6 | Ryan Sims, North Carolina | 59 | 0 | Yes |
| Jaguars | 9 | John Henderson, Tennessee | 80 | 1 | No |
| Cardinals | 12 | Wendell Bryant, Wisconsin | 29 | 0 | Yes |
| Titans | 15 | Albert Haynesworth, Tennessee | 63 | 0 | No |
Bad teams are bad for a reason (see: Arizona and Wendell Bryant). The Chiefs are still waiting for Ryan Sims to pan out, but John Henderson and Albert Haynesworth have both been very good.
| 2003 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pick | Player, School | Games | Pro Bowls | Bust? |
| Jets | 4 | Dewayne Robertson, Kentucky | 61 | 0 | No |
| Saints | 6 | Jonathan Sullivan, Georgia | 37 | 0 | Yes |
| Vikings | 9 | Kevin Williams, Oklahoma State | 62 | 2 | No |
| Rams | 12 | Jimmy Kennedy, Penn State | 53 | 0 | Yes |
| Giants | 25 | William Joseph, Miami | 55 | 0 | Yes |
Kevin Williams is an NFL star, while Dewayne Robertson, though it is too early to attach "bust" has struggled. Kennedy (3 NFL sacks) and Sullivan (1.5 NFL sacks) have both done very little, and William Joseph is proof that going back to "Da U" to train isn't an automatic recipe for NFL success.
Crunching the Numbers: First-Round DTs, 1989-2003
Number of DTs drafted: 42
Notable busts: Wendell Bryant, Dimitrius Underwood, Leonard Renfro
Number of busts: 14
Bust percentage: 33%
Number of DTs with at least one Pro Bowl appearance: 17
Pro Bowl percentage: 40%
For the sake of comparison
Percentage of first-round LB busts: 16%
Percentage of first-round DE busts: 31%
Conclusions
The DT position was comparable in risk to the DEs, busting out at a slightly higher 33 percent. That said, the Rams have really struggled in picking defensive tackles, and the Eagles have struggled with D-linemen in general, grabbing Jerome McDougle, Jon Harris and Leonard Renfro during the study cycle. All were busts. Jacksonville has built its defense around John Henderson and Marcus Stroud, two Pro Bowl-quality DT picks in back-to-back years.
Ted Kluck is not a scientist; rather, he is the author of three books -- including "Facing Tyson: Fifteen Fighters, Fifteen Stories" (Lyons Press 2006) -- as well as a full-fledged draft geek. He recently spent a season playing professional football as a member of the Battle Creek Crunch (GLIFL) where he was, without a doubt, a bust.
