Commentary

Sports Guy's Week 11 picks

Originally Published: November 19, 2010
By Bill Simmons | ESPN.com

Packers (-3) over VIKINGS
Booooooooooooo! BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Although this blowout Packers win will be marred by Aaron Rodgers getting suspended for unveiling his Cell Phone Dong touchdown dance.

CHIEFS (-7) over Cardinals
I'm riding the Chiefs at home until they lose, although it kills me to pick Todd Haley after he was such a loser last week. Here's what you do for the postgame handshake if you're ticked off: Smile thinly, shake his hand, lean in, pull a Maximus and say, "I will have my vengeance. Whether it's in this lifetime or the next one, I will have my vengeance." Then walk away.

Ravens (-10.5) over PANTHERS
Brian St. Pierre alert! Brian St. Pierre alert! Any time you can lay 10.5 points against a 31-year-old QB with no career starts who backed up a current ESPN analyst in college, you have to do it.

JETS (-7) over Texans
The Jets haven't blown anyone out since Week 4. They're overdue. By the way, Houston's season ended on a Hail Mary -- can we say they were Fredo'ed?

TITANS (-7) over Redskins
Season on the line for Tennessee; season over the line and off a cliff for Washington. By the way, Moss, Haynesworth, McNabb and Young … I think this game breaks the record for highly paid, high-profile stars you'd be afraid to go to war with in a big game under any circumstances.

COWBOYS (-6.5) over Lions
Can't shake this nagging feeling that Dez Bryant is going to shred Detroit's secondary and throw his hat into the "Best Receiver Right Now" ring. How did he go 18th again?

Bills (+5.5) over BENGALS
Law of Gus! Law of Gus! Law of Gus! Yet it's the first Cincy TV blackout since 2003. What does this mean? Does this neutralize the Law of Gus? And shouldn't it be illegal to black out Gus Johnson under any and all circumstances?

Raiders (+7) over STEELERS
My upset special: Oakland 23, Pittsburgh 17. How great is it that this game means something? I might watch this game, play some Atari, then cap it off with reruns of "The Love Boat," "Charlie's Angels" and "Fantasy Island."

Browns (+1.5) over JAGS
I'm riding the Browns these next five games: at Jacksonville, Carolina, at Miami, at Buffalo, at Cincy. Also, a reader suggested that we start calling Peyton Hillis "The Avalanche" -- he's white, he goes downhill and he leaves a slew of bodies in his path. Co-sign.

Falcons (-3) over RAMS
Put it this way: If you're a potential No. 1 seed coming off 10 days of rest, you win this game.

Bucs (+3.5) over NINERS
"I … love … JAAASH … FREEMAN!"

SAINTS (-11.5) over Seahawks
I'm excited for the Reggie Bush/Pete Carroll reunion. During their postgame handshake, they should hire a third party to give Reggie $50,000 in cash while Pete looks the other way.

PATS (-4) over Colts
In my John Kreese voice: "Finish them! FINISH THEM!" You know really frightens me? This is the most confident I've felt going into a Colts-Pats game in like seven years. Crap. Now I'm getting nervous …

EAGLES (-3) over Giants
Add me to the list of people with a fantasy lead Monday night who got Michael Vicked. (I actually enjoyed it. If you're going to blow a 32-point fantasy lead in less than an hour, you at least want to make history in the process.) Hey, I have a question: Is Eli Manning ever going to have a bad game without me screaming at the TV "I CAN'T BELIEVE YOU COST ME 19-0, YOU STIFF!!!!!!!!!"

Broncos (+10) over CHARGERS
A little too much "Phil Rivers is the new Dan Marino" talk this week for my liking. Wow, Phil, you're a warm-weather QB going against the two worst divisions in football every week. … I can't believe you're putting up great stats for a 4-5 team! Look, I knew Dan Marino, I rooted against Dan Marino, I was perpetually terrified of Dan Marino. … Phil Rivers, you're no Dan Marino. I'm picking the crappy Broncos out of principle.

This week: 0-1
Last week: 8-6
Season: 76-63-5

Bill Simmons is a columnist for ESPN.com and the author of the recent New York Times No. 1 best-seller "The Book of Basketball," out in paperback on Dec. 7 with new material and a revised Hall of Fame Pyramid. For every Simmons column and podcast, check out Sports Guy's World or the BS Report page. Follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/sportsguy33.

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Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) is the editor-in-chief of Grantland and the author of the New York Times no. 1 best-seller The Book of Basketball. For every Simmons column and podcast, log on to Grantland. To send him an e-mail, click here.