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Note: Go to the bottom of the table for a more complete explanation of how Aaron's QB rating system works.
For the last couple weeks, America's No. 1 movie at the box office was an animated superhero tale called "The Incredibles." If you haven't seen it, you should, because not only is it very funny, it also has an important lesson for Michael Vick.
Between the visual jokes and comic-book references, the moral of the story says people should be allowed to be themselves and utilize their inherent talents. Somebody must have got an early copy of the movie to the Atlanta Falcons coaching staff because over the past few weeks they have allowed Michael Vick to finally use his superhero power of "best running quarterback who ever lived" and he's playing a lot better because of it.
The dividing line seems to be the Week 7 debacle against Kansas City. Prior to that game, Vick had more than seven rushes only once: Week 2 against St. Louis, when he ran 10 times for 112 yards and the Falcons obliterated the Rams. After that game Vick went through weeks of struggle, and forests were decimated with people talking about how he didn't understand Atlanta's new "West Coast Offense."
Well, if you Atlanta has been playing the same scheme the past couple of weeks as it did the first few weeks, you probably also think that "The Rebel Billionaire" is a monument to original television programming. The last three weeks Vick has run 12 times for 115 yards, eight times for 74 yards, and 13 times for 106 yards. And what do you know, Atlanta has won three straight, even though the defense isn't playing quite as well as it was at the beginning of the season.
More importantly, though, Vick plays his best PASSING games when he runs more The three games with at least 10 rushes -- wins over St. Louis, Denver, and the Giants -- score as three of Vick's top four games according to my ratings. When they let Vick be Vick instead of trying to restrain him with a system designed for a different quarterback, he runs better and he passes better. That makes a better quarterback overall and that means more wins. Yes, he's going to get injured. Yes, he needs to learn to throw the ball away a bit more often, or slide, or get out of bounds without taking a hit. But like a great jazz saxophonist, Vick is better when improvising than playing from the sheet music.
(Note: official NFL numbers differ from my numbers because they include quarterback kneel downs and aborted snaps as rushes.)
| SNAP JUDGMENT'S QB RANKINGS FOR WEEK 11 | ||
| Quarterback | Skinny | DPAR |
| 1. Donovan McNabb 18/26, 222 yards 4 TDs, 1 INT |
Washington's defense, it turns out, is a bit of a paper tiger. They've controlled the young guys but veterans do well unless they are named "Brad Johnson." | 10.5 |
| 2. Brett Favre 33/50, 383 yards 1 TD, 2 INTs |
After engineering comeback win, also patched up R. Kelly's beef with Jay-Z. He's amazing. | 9.1 |
| 3. Michael Vick 12/20, 115 yards 2 TDs, 0 INTs 104 rushing |
Three of Vick's top four passing games have come in the weeks he has run at least 10 times. You have to let Vick be Vick. | 8.3 |
| 4. Kerry Collins 18/30, 227 yards 2 TDs, 0 INTs |
Remember, San Diego is good now, and losing to them by only six is an accomplishment (for the Raiders anyway). | 7.5 |
| 5. Peyton Manning 18/27, 320 yards 5 TDs, 2 INTs |
Yes, yes, I know, four touchdowns, Marino's record, etc ... but this was Edge's game. He had 14.0 DPAR rushing, best RB performance of the year (yes, we do RBs too). | 7.4 |
| 6. Drew Brees 18/34, 226 yards 1 TD, 0 INTs |
LT had 137 pass targets last year. This year he is on pace for 45. That's a lot less use of the safety valve. | 5.8 |
| 7. Jake Plummer 19/29, 224 yards 2 TDs, 0 INTs |
Troy Aikman said on Sunday, "There are no easy defenses in the NFL." Troy obviously has not done a New Orleans game. | 4.9 |
| 8. Kyle Boller 23/34, 232 yards 2 TDs, 0 INTs |
Once he does this against a real defense, I'll be convinced. Next week, in New England, he'll get his chance. | 4.7 |
| 9. Daunte Culpepper 22/32, 233 yards 2 TDs, 1 INT |
Playing this solid without Moss to depend on says a lot about Culpepper. | 4.2 |
| 10. Carson Palmer 13/25, 165 yards 2 TDs, 1 INT |
To fit in better on team, may change name to "Johnson." | 3.9 |
| 11. Drew Henson 6/6, 47 yards 1 TD, 0 INTs |
Somehow I think he wouldn't have gone 6-for-6 if the score had been 0-0 instead of 30-3. | 3.6 |
| 12. Jeff Garcia 10/17, 88 yards 1 TD, 0 INTs |
Do you realize that at one point in this game the Browns and Jets were 0-for-20 on third-down conversions? | 3.2 |
| 13. Ben Roethlisberger 15/21, 138 yards 1 TD, 0 INT |
Yikes, sacked twice in the red zone and got stuck with intentional grounding. | 2.8 |
| 14. David Garrard 13/27, 129 yards 0 TDs, 1 INT |
I always enjoyed him as Buck Rogers. | 2.2 |
| 15. Jake Delhomme 12/25, 157 yards 2 TDs, 1 INT |
We interrupt today's episode of "Jake Delhomme, One-Man Team" to bring you "The Nick Goings Show!" | 2.1 |
| 16. David Carr 13/26, 164 yards 1 TD, 0 INTs |
In case you missed it, Brett Favre is his idol. | 1.7 |
| 17. Drew Bledsoe 15/24, 185 yards 3 TDs, 1 INT |
Raise your hand if you had Mark Campbell on your fantasy team. OK, that's three of you. | 1.1 |
| 18. Aaron Brooks 34/60, 377 yards 1 TD, 3 INTs |
Leads the league with 1080 yards passing -- when losing by more than a touchdown. | -0.2 |
| 19. Patrick Ramsey 21/34, 162 yards 0 TDs, 1 INT |
Pretty good for a while, then crashed in Q4 with no first downs, no passes over 10 yards, and an interception. | -0.2 |
| 20. A.J. Feeley 23/45, 229 yards 1 TD, 2 INTs |
This game said a lot more about Seattle than it did about Miami. | -0.3 |
| 21. Brian Griese 15/21, 210 yards 2 TDs, 2 INTs |
Threw only four second-half passes. Thanks for coming, tip your waitresses. | -0.4 |
| 22. Kelly Holcomb 4/10, 32 yards 0 TDs, 0 INT |
Anyone who wanted to see Garcia benched changed their minds after seeing this performance. | -1.0 |
| 23. Quincy Carter 11/20, 116 yards 1 TD, 1 INT |
Exhibit A why a QB is partially responsible for getting sacked: Carter has been sacked 11 times in 2 games. Pennington was only sacked 8 times in 7 games. | -2.8 |
| 24. Tim Rattay 15/31, 147 yards 0 TD, 1 INT |
Rattay isn't really the problem with the 49ers. Tampa forced him to throw lots of checkdowns on 3rd-and-13s to Barlow, who dropped most of them. | -3.1 |
| 25. Trent Dilfer 14/28, 196 yards 1 TD, 2 INTs |
He just wins games! | -3.5 |
| 26. Vinny Testaverde 9/22, 109 yards 0 TDs, 2 INTs |
Only player to hold passing yards record both for a team and against that team. Now that team may have just ended his career as a starter. | -4.3 |
| 27. Marc Bulger 27/45, 287 yards 2 TDs, 3 INTs |
A return visit from our old friend "Marc Bulger of 2003." | -5.0 |
| 28. Eli Manning 17/37, 162 yards 1 TD, 2 INTs |
Unfortunartely, the NFL's record keeping on dropped passes is too sketchy to consider them in the ratings formula. | -5.6 |
| 29. Joey Harrington 12/19, 91 yards 1 TD, 1 INT |
To quote my FO co-writer Al Bogdan: "I can't take any team seriously as a playoff threat when they're thinking about voluntarily starting Mike McMahon." | -7.0 |
| 30. Steve McNair 18/30, 209 yards 1 TD, 2 INTs |
Yes, he marched the Titans for the winning TD ... on his FOURTH TRY. He threw an interception on the first try, was sacked for a safety on the second try, and had a sack and incomplete on a three-and-out on the third try. He only got the fourth try because the defense was strong and Josh Scobee was not. | -7.7 |
| 31. Shaun King 28/52, 343 yards 1 TD, 3 INTs |
Steals the "garbage time stat padding performance of the year" award away from Jake Plummer. 343 yards of nonsense. | -9.2 |
| 32. Craig Krenzel 14/24, 175 yards 1 TD, 2 INTs |
You may remember a couple weeks ago that I noted Chicago's upcoming schedule and said that bad defenses can make a mediocre quarterback look good. Well, apparently nothing can make Craig Krenzel look good. | -11.6 |
How DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) works
The success of each play is judged based on yardage gained towards both a touchdown and a first down. Then each play gets compared to the NFL average on similar plays, based on down, distance, and other variables. Quarterbacks are judged not based on how many yards they get, but on how important those yards are in the context of the game.
Ratings are also adjusted for the quality of the opposing defense. The quarterback's performance is then translated into an approximate number of actual points that such success (or failure) is worth when compared to a "replacement level" quarterback (defined as any quarterback named "Billy Joe").
When all offensive, defensive, and special teams plays are added together for one team, the result comes very close to the actual difference between points scored and allowed.
Among the advantages of this system:
1. Gives value for first downs, which are not really included in any other QB rating system but are hugely important.
2. Does not punish quarterbacks who are always in bad field position because of a poor defense, nor does it punish quarterbacks who are always stuck in third-and-long because of a poor running game.
3. With enough data to begin including defensive adjustment, quarterbacks receive bonuses when they play well against good defenses, and they don't get rated as world-beaters when they shred the 49ers
4. Includes both passing and rushing plays, which obviously helps a QB like Michael Vick.
5. DPAR punishes quarterbacks for turnovers but also for fumbles that his own team recovers. Different kind of fumbles have different penalties depending on how often defense recovers for a turnover. Sacks are punished as well.
6. 5-yard scramble on 3rd-and-10? Worthless!
7. Actual points! Easy to understand!
An even longer explanation of these numbers can be found here.
Aaron Schatz is editor-in-chief of FootballOutsiders.com.
Schatz
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