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Note: Go to the bottom of the table for a more complete explanation of how Aaron's QB rating system works.
One of the most important parts of these ratings is the adjustment for opponent. Passing for 300 yards on the Saints is not the same as passing for 300 yards on the Steelers. So this week, I thought I would switch things around and show the rankings of the best and worst defenses in terms of PAR given up to opposing quarterbacks.
This is especially noteworthy this week because the two biggest quarterback performances were significantly affected by the quality of the opposing defense. If we don't adjust for opponent, Donovan McNabb's 464 and 5 TDs against Green Bay was easily the best performance, followed by Carson Palmer, Kerry Collins and Peyton Manning. But Green Bay has given up more big passing games than any other team, and the Ravens have been the best defense in football. When you adjust for that, Palmer's game actually scores as more valuable than McNabb's game, with Manning third and Collins a bit farther down because a big offensive performance came against Kansas City.
Carson Palmer's big day also shows that, just like the quarterbacks they face, great defenses can have bad days and bad defenses can have surprisingly good days. I'm guessing that fantasy football players everywhere did a double take watching the ticker at the bottom of the screen as Buffalo and Miami racked up the points and St. Louis and San Francisco had a defensive struggle. It was like "Freaky Friday," only without Lindsay Lohan.
Anyway, here's a list of this season's 10 best and worst defenses, ranked by how many Points Above Replacement they've given up to opposing quarterbacks. The difference here is that instead of adjusting for the defense, the numbers are adjusted for the opposing offenses. After all, you don't want to penalize those poor AFC South teams that have to face Peyton Manning twice.
Top pass defenses Worst pass defenses Team PAR Team PAR BAL -14.7 GB 86.9 PIT -11.5 NO 86.3 NE -6.5 STL 80.6 TB -4.7 SF 80.0 CHI -3.6 MIN 77.5 DEN 3.2 OAK 69.3 TEN 5.4 DAL 63.9 PHI 11.2 KC 55.3 WAS 11.8 IND 41.7 BUF 13.9 JAC 40.7
*Not counting Monday Night Football this week.
| SNAP JUDGMENT'S QB RANKINGS FOR WEEK 13 | ||
| Quarterback | Skinny | DPAR |
| 1. Carson Palmer 29/36, 382 yards 3 TDs, 1 INT |
At the age of 13 weeks, the little boy became a man before our eyes. I think I'll send him a bar mitzvah card. | 17.6 |
| 2. Donovan McNabb 32/43, 464 yards 5 TDs, 0 INTs |
As great as this was, Manning's Week 3 against the Packers was even better, 17.2 DPAR after adjusting for the poor Green Bay secondary. | 14.1 |
| 3. Peyton Manning 25/33, 425 yards 3 TDs, 2 INTs |
Hopefully Edge's two rushing TDs end that "selfish Manning" nonsense. | 13.7 |
| 4. Patrick Ramsey 19/22, 174 yards 3 TDs, 0 INTs |
The "Brady Anderson hits 50 homers" game of the week. | 12.8 |
| 5. Drew Bledsoe 19/30, 277 yards 4 TDs, 0 INTs |
"Euhus" is apparently pronounced "HEW-is" but I'm still skeptical. | 12.6 |
| 6. Byron Leftwich 16/27, 268 yards 1 TD, 0 INTs |
Great game throwing to Bizarro Troy Edwards, 90 yards and a TD after averaging 33 yards a game with no TDs this year. | 11.8 |
| 7. Ben Roethlisberger 14/17, 221 yards 2 TDs, 0 INTs |
One of these weeks, Pittsburgh is going to win a game with Big Ben throwing fewer than 10 passes. | 10.9 |
| 8. Kerry Collins 27/41, 343 yards 3 TDs, 0 INTs |
This had to be one of the more exciting "playing out the string" games of all time. | 9.2 |
| 9. Trent Green 23/35, 340 yards 3 TDs, 1 INT |
One reason KC underachieves? Only 5-for-16 in goal-to-go situations this season, with two interceptions and two sacks. | 8.2 |
| 10. Jake Delhomme 22/29, 294 yards 1 TD, 0 INT |
Disappointing day for senior Daily Show football correspondent Keary Colbert, with only one catch. Jon? | 6.1 |
| 11. Luke McCown 20/34, 277 yards 2 TDs, 2 INTs |
Better than he looked, since he was playing against a top defense and always stuck in 3rd-and-long because the Browns have no running game. Even converted two fourth downs. | 4.5 |
| 12. Chad Pennington 20/27, 155 yards 2 TDs, 1 INT |
Jets fans dry-eyed over end of Quincy Carter era. | 4.4 |
| 13. Kyle Boller 19/33, 172 yards 0 TDs, 1 INT |
Can you really see him going into Pittsburgh or Foxboro and winning in January? | 3.7 |
| 14. Eli Manning 12/25, 113 yards 0 TDs, 0 INTs |
Sure, no interceptions, but also only one pass for more than 11 yards. | 1.7 |
| 15. Tom Brady 11/20, 157 yards 1 TD, 1 INT 69 rush |
Browns were really getting a pass rush on him, and he was missing guys all day. Rest of the Patriots picked up the slack. | 0.8 |
| 16. Aaron Brooks 20/40, 251 yards 3 TDs, 2 INTs |
211 passes this season when losing by more than a TD, 55 more than anyone else. | 0.4 |
| 17. Joey Harrington 15/27, 196 yards 1 TD, 1 INT |
The Cardinals said, "We'll stop the pass and dare the run to beat us." And so it was. | 0.0 |
| 18. Daunte Culpepper 23/33, 279 yards 2 TDs, 3 INTs |
Beware the power of Brancato: dome and warm-weather teams fold when playing in a cold-weather city in December. | 0.0 |
| 19. Chad Hutchinson 18/30, 213 yards 3 TDs, 0 INTs |
Bears fans, don't get giddy just yet -- eight QBs have thrown for more yards on the Vikings, and Hutchinson got sacked five times. | -0.1 |
| 20. Chris Chandler 18/27, 216 yards 1 TD, 1 INT |
Chandler and Marshall Faulk must have quite a battle for the Metamucil and Efferdent in the St. Louis trainer's room. | -0.4 |
| 21. Brian Griese 13/21, 131 yards 1 TD, 1 INT |
Just happy to not have Tim Brown as his No. 1 receiver anymore. | -2-2 |
| 22. A.J. Feeley 25/51, 303 yards 3 TDs, 5 INTs |
Three TDs in the first quarter to put Miami ahead, three interceptions in the fourth quarter to give Buffalo the game. | -3.3 |
| 23. David Carr 12/25, 157 yards 0 TDs, 2 INTs |
Finally, the answer to "If man is five, and the devil is six, and God is seven, who is eight?" | -3.6 |
| 24. Drew Brees 14/27, 106 yards 0 TDs, 1 INT |
He was the old Drew Brees, but that was still better than the current Jake Plummer. | -6.0 |
| 25. Tim Rattay 10/21, 121 yards 0 TDs, 1 INT |
That's four straight games below replacement level. What's happened to this guy? | -7.6 |
| 26. Michael Vick 13/27, 115 yards 0 TDs, 2 INTs |
Vick was worth 3.7 DPAR rushing (81 yards), so this was actually the second-worst passing performance of the day. | -7.8 |
| 27. Billy Volek 21/35, 269 yards 3 TDs, 2 INTs |
I have a macro on my laptop so when I press Ctrl-V, it types, "Volek, in for the injured McNair." | -8.2 |
| 28. Brett Favre 14/28, 131 yards 0 TDs, 2 INTs |
Career 0-4 record in Philadelphia. Allergic to cheesesteaks? | -8.4 |
| 29. Jake Plummer 16/40, 228 yards 0 TDs, 4 INTs |
A performance like this in a must-win game has to earn Plummer the biggest goat horns of the year, although I'm never quite sure how much blame a QB deserves when a ball is tipped by a receiver and then intercepted. | -11.2 |
| 30. John Navarre 18/40, 168 yards 1 TD, 4 INTs |
Hey, it's another low-round draft pick QB from Michigan! What could go wrong? | -14.0 |
How DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) works
The success of each play is judged based on yardage gained towards both a touchdown and a first down. Then each play gets compared to the NFL average on similar plays, based on down, distance, and other variables. Quarterbacks are judged not based on how many yards they get, but on how important those yards are in the context of the game.
Ratings are also adjusted for the quality of the opposing defense. The quarterback's performance is then translated into an approximate number of actual points that such success (or failure) is worth when compared to a "replacement level" quarterback (defined as any quarterback named "Billy Joe").
When all offensive, defensive, and special teams plays are added together for one team, the result comes very close to the actual difference between points scored and allowed.
Among the advantages of this system:
1. Gives value for first downs, which are not really included in any other QB rating system but are hugely important.
2. Does not punish quarterbacks who are always in bad field position because of a poor defense, nor does it punish quarterbacks who are always stuck in third-and-long because of a poor running game.
3. With enough data to begin including defensive adjustment, quarterbacks receive bonuses when they play well against good defenses, and they don't get rated as world-beaters when they shred the 49ers
4. Includes both passing and rushing plays, which obviously helps a QB like Michael Vick.
5. DPAR punishes quarterbacks for turnovers but also for fumbles that his own team recovers. Different kind of fumbles have different penalties depending on how often defense recovers for a turnover. Sacks are punished as well.
6. 5-yard scramble on 3rd-and-10? Worthless!
7. Actual points! Easy to understand!
An even longer explanation of these numbers can be found here.
Aaron Schatz is editor-in-chief of FootballOutsiders.com.
Schatz
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