Note: Go to the bottom of the table for a more complete explanation of how Aaron's QB rating system works.

Here's a typical e-mail I've received:

"I am a Giants fan, please tell me that Eli will be alright! Do you think that Coughlin even knew who was coming on the schedule when he decided to play Manning?"

Manning played better in Week 15, but has had many reasons to hang his head so far.

Saturday's game probably quieted talk about Eli Manning as a bust for the time being, but there's no doubt his rookie year hasn't been what Giants fans were expecting. Even after a good game, his numbers look nothing like his brother's rookie year, or what people expect from the No. 1 overall pick. Here are Eli's stats, prorated to include two more starts:

81 for 186 (43.6 percent completion rate), 977 yards, 4 TD, 10 INT

Yep, that's bad. How bad? Eight quarterbacks since 1978 have had a completion rate below 50 percent and at least twice as many interceptions in the first season of their careers with at least 125 pass attempts. It isn't exactly the roll call of victory: Steve DeBerg (1978 49ers), Jeff Komlo (1979 Lions), Art Schlichter (1984 Colts), Bruce Mathison (1985 Bills), Mike Tomczak (1986 Bears), Jack Trudeau (1986 Colts), Browning Nagle (1992 Jets), and -- oh, no -- Ryan Leaf (1998 Chargers).

Those quarterbacks, however, don't necessarily make the best comparison for Manning because they put up terrible numbers in more games. Saturday's game is reason to believe Manning will improve with more playing time, and that his completion rate and touchdown-to-interception ratio would be better if he had played from Week 1.

A good way to compare Manning to other rookies who played only part of the year is with similarity scores. Similarity scores are a Bill James invention familiar to baseball fans, but I have a similar formula that I use to compare football seasons. (A couple of other football writers use variations on the idea as well. You can read more about the specifics in this article about Drew Brees. I took the prorated Manning numbers above and compared them to every quarterback since 1978, the year the modern passing rules went into effect and the season expanded to 16 games.

The new list of similar QBs looks a little better than the list above, but it isn't tremendously better. It is hard to find quarterbacks who had a completion rate as bad as Manning's and threw for as few yards per attempt (and only played a few games). Instead you get guys who were somewhat close in each area. The most similar quarterback is actually another No. 1 overall pick who has had a very long career -- but not kind of career that Giants fans are hoping to see out of Manning. The rest of the top 10 are a mix of guys who had reasonable but unspectacular careers, guys who really went nowhere, and guys who are famous for attacking Jim Rome. Here is the top 10, along with two players who would be in the top 10 except that the formula also includes rushing yardage:

Putting Michael Vick aside for the moment, this is not an encouraging list for Giants fans. The two first-round picks, Testaverde and Everett, had long and successful careers, but only three combined Pro Bowl appearances. The other guys never really put it together, except for Don Majkowski for a couple years, and a number of them did have high expectations. Remember that Steve Walsh was a supplemental draftee who cost Dallas a first-rounder, Billy Joe Tolliver and Quincy Carter were second-rounders, and a couple more of these guys were third-rounders.

Obviously, a look at similar rookies doesn't mean Vinny Testaverde represents Manning's limit at this point. All this struggle could be the fault of the offensive line, or the receivers, instead of Manning. This method doesn't include any adjustment for strength of schedule, and Manning has faced a gauntlet of this year's top pass defenses. And he's probably going to get better over his last two games. But even when I looked at similar rookies assuming that Manning's final two games would be like his game against Pittsburgh instead of the ones that came before it, the list of similar quarterbacks is pretty much the same, with a couple of unexciting additions like Craig Whelihan and Chad Hutchinson.

Actually, Manning's good game on Saturday got rid of the most successful of the players with similar rookie seasons. When I did this based on Manning's first five games instead of six, the most similar rookie was eventual Super Bowl MVP Doug Williams, who had a horrific 37.6 percent completion percentage his first season. After a few years in Tampa, Williams had to switch leagues and then switch to a new NFL team before he won a Super Bowl.

What about Eli's big brother? In Peyton's rookie year he threw more interceptions than touchdowns and completed only 56.7 percent of his passes for 6.5 yards per attempt, both numbers far lower than any of his other seasons. But Peyton's rookie season was so unique that there is only one similar rookie since 1978 (Jim Kelly).

This week's rankings: