QB rankings: Week 4
Note: Go to the bottom of the table for a more complete explanation of how Aaron's QB rating system works.
| SNAP JUDGMENT'S QB RANKINGS FOR WEEK 4 | ||
| Quarterback | Skinny | PAR |
| 1. Tom Brady 17/30, 298 yards 2 TDs, 0 INTs |
On a day where no quarterback was spectacular, he was steady with a number of long passes and (thanks to replay) no turnovers. Paul Maguire always says they don't draw up plays for 1st-and-35, but Brady found one, completing a 44-yarder on a drive that ended in the first TD. | 14.1 |
| 2. Byron Leftwich 29/41, 318 yards 1 TD, 0 INTs |
Although it came against a shaky defense, Leftwich's performance was the silver lining in Jacksonville's first loss. A 40-yard bomb on 4th-and-1 was a bold play call that showed confidence, both in Leftwich and the defense's ability to stop the Colts if the play had failed. | 11.9 |
| 3. David Carr 14/23, 228 yards 1 TD, 0 INTs |
Last week, when he ran four times for 26 yards, I joked that he was riding the "Michael Vick Experience." After four rushes for 40 yards this week, maybe they should call it the "David Carr Experience." | 10.1 |
| 4. Drew Brees 16/20, 206 yards 3 TDs, 0 INTs |
His limp gradually became a normal walk, and to our shocking surprise we discovered that the gimp from Weeks 2 and 3 was actually the dreaded Kaiser Soze. | 9.1 |
| 5. Marc Bulger 17/25, 186 yards 1 TD, 0 INTs |
Why context is important for QB numbers, part one: only threw two passes in second half (both incomplete) as Rams ran the clock. | 9.0 |
| 6. Tim Rattay 31/47, 299 yards 2 TDs, 1 INT |
Why context is important for QB numbers, part two: 7-12, 70 yards, 0 TD in first half (-4.0 PAR) and 24-35 for 229 yards, 2 TD in second half (12.1 PAR despite the fact that PAR system adjusts for easier yards in garbage time). | 8.1 |
| 7. Jeff Garcia 14/21, 195 yards 1 TD, 0 INTs |
Kellen who? Garcia 4-of-5 with 47 yards and a TD to tight ends Aaron Shea and Steve Heiden. | 7.2 |
| 8. Ben Roethlisberger 17/25, 174 yards 1 TD, 0 INTs |
Conventional wisdom says playing a rookie will doom Pittsburgh's season, but history says teams with rookie QBs usually play poorly because they were bad teams before drafting a quarterback. Pittsburgh was mediocre last year, but mediocre might win this division. | 6.4 |
| 9. Peyton Manning 20/29, 219 yards 2 TDs, 1 INT |
Who would have expected Manning to pass for 100 fewer yards than Leftwich -- with the Colts still winning the game. | 6.3 |
| 10. Michael Vick 10/18, 148 yards 0 TDs, 0 INTs |
The "Dunn fakes right, Vick bootlegs left" routine is freezing defenses: Vick this year has 17 yards rushing right, 45 rushing up the middle, and 170 rushing left. | 6.0 |
| 11. Billy Volek 39/58, 278 yards 2 TDs, 0 INTs |
In his valiant attempt to undue the damage done by the Tennessee defense, Volek actually converted on four of six 4th-down attempts -- two rushing and two passing. | 5.1 |
| 12. Mark Brunell 17/32, 192 yards 0 TDs, 0 INTs |
Only 1-of-4 for 5 yards in the red zone. | 5.0 |
| 13. Donovan McNabb 24/38, 237 yards 1 TD, 1 INT |
If you're going to have a mediocre game, do it now -- not the NFC title game (sorry, Eagles fans). | 4.8 |
| 14. Brad Johnson 15/23, 162 yards 1 TD, 0 INTs |
While there are a number of calls to put Chris Simms in, does it make sense to get him used to a bunch of teammates who, other than Michael Clayton, won't be around next year? | 4.7 |
| 15. Kurt Warner 20/26, 187 yards 1 TD, 1 INT |
He's winning again, but those medium-range passes that hit receivers in stride are gone, replaced by accurate short passes. Shaky in the red zone, throwing into triple coverage for an interception when he had a running lane and then later sliding at the one to avoid a hit instead of diving into the end zone. | 4.4 |
| 16. Josh McCown 12/18, 157 yards 0 TDs, 0 INTs |
That's only twice as much passing PAR as Emmitt Smith. | 4.0 |
| 17. Aaron Brooks 24/40, 242 yards 0 TDs, 0 INTs |
There are always many surprises in a new NFL season, but surely the most inexplicable story of 2004 has been Arizona's sudden ability to play defense. | 2.8 |
| 18. Jonathan Quinn 26/43, 215 yards 1 TD, 0 INTs |
Bears actually had a good scheme set up to protect the journeyman Quinn, leaving him a short receiver if the blitz got to him; but most of the time Quinn just threw the ball away. | 2.3 |
| 19. Jake Delhomme 23/38, 308 yards 0 TDs, 2 INTs |
Only two of 10 passes on third down resulted in first downs, although one resulted in a touchdown. Unfortunately, that touchdown was for the Falcons. | 0.9 |
| 20. Jake Plummer 13/31, 138 yards 1 TD, 0 INTs |
Major deduction here for fumbled snap on Denver 9-yard line which, if Tampa had recovered it, would have probably lost the game. | 0.2 |
| 21. Brett Favre 12/18, 110 yards 1 TD, 1 INT |
I'm not sure whether returning to the game after a concussion to throw a touchdown on fourth down counts as astonishing courage, rank stupidity, or both. Was the Green Bay training staff just asleep? | -0.3 |
| 22. Doug Pederson 7/17, 86 yards 0 TDs, 1 INT |
Giants had a shot at picking off nearly all his passes. Had a three-play sequence in the third quarter where he had an interception called back due to defensive pass interference, an interception prevented by offensive pass interference, and a pass batted down at the line of scrimmage. | -1.9 |
| 23. Drew Bledsoe 18/30, 247 yards 1 TD, 1 INT |
Once again, sacked seven times; on the last one, Patriots came in from the right, knocked the ball out of his hand, and returned it for a TD while left tackle Jonas Jennings and left guard Lawrence Smith stood around blocking nobody. | -2.6 |
| 24. Chad Pennington 14/24, 143 yards 0 TDs, 1 INT |
Hey, look, Miami still has a defense -- and they must be the most miserable people on earth right now. | -4.4 |
| 25. Carson Palmer 20/37, 164 yards 1 TD, 2 INTs |
On pace to throw 12 touchdowns and 28 interceptions, stats that might be called Akilian. | -4.9 |
| 26. Kerry Collins 21/38, 237 yards 0 TDs, 3 INTs |
Raise your hands if you participated in the fantasy stampede for Kerry Collins this week. OK, now raise your hands if you ended up with him and are still happy about it. | -8.0 |
| 27. Jay Fiedler 18/33, 206 yards 0 TDs, 2 INTs |
Given that whoever gets plugged in to this position ends up at the bottom of these ratings, perhaps quarterback is not actually the problem in Miami. Nevertheless, what's the countdown on the Sage Rosenfels watch? | -8.4 |
How PAR (Points Above Replacement) works
The success of each play is judged based on yardage gained towards both a touchdown and a first down. Then each play gets compared to the NFL average on similar plays, based on down, distance, and other variables. Quarterbacks are judged not based on how many yards they get, but on how important those yards are in the context of the game.
Once we have enough data for the season, we also adjust for the quality of the opposing defense. The quarterback's performance is then translated into an approximate number of actual points that such success (or failure) is worth when compared to a "replacement level" quarterback (defined as any quarterback named "Billy Joe").
When all offensive, defensive, and special teams plays are added together for one team, the result comes very close to the actual difference between points scored and allowed.
Among the advantages of this system:
1. Gives value for first downs, which are not really included in any other QB rating system but are hugely important.
2. Does not punish quarterbacks who are always in bad field position because of a poor defense, nor does it punish quarterbacks who are always stuck in third-and-long because of a poor running game.
3. Later in the season, when we have enough data to begin including defensive adjustment, quarterbacks receive bonuses when they play well against good defenses, and they don't get rated as world-beaters when they shred the 49ers
4. Includes both passing and rushing plays, which obviously helps a QB like Michael Vick.
5. PAR punishes quarterbacks for turnovers but also for fumbles that his own team recovers. Different kind of fumbles have different penalties depending on how often defense recovers for a turnover. Sacks are punished as well.
6. 5-yard scramble on 3rd-and-10? Worthless!
7. Actual points! Easy to understand!
An even longer explanation of these numbers can be found here.
Aaron Schatz is editor-in-chief of FootballOutsiders.com.
