By Dan Shanoff
Special to Page 3

With the 12th annual ESPY Awards being held Wednesday night in Hollywood (and the broadcast Sunday at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN), here's the second half of Page 3's "ESPY-nalysis" of all the awards on the table.

We've already looked at the "Cross-Cutter" nominees. Now, let's break down the "Individual" nominees, based on who should win -- and who will win (keeping in mind that fans did all the voting this year).

BEST MLB PLAYER
Contenders: Barry Bonds, Eric Gagne, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez
Who Should Win: If you were filling out a lineup card today, you'd take Pujols. If you were starting a team today, you would take A-Rod ...
Who Will Win: If you wanted the best player in baseball -- at an ungodly old age, no less -- it would be Bonds. Funny how the media is so polarized about him, but the fans respect his amazing résumeé.

BEST NBA PLAYER
Contenders: Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O'Neal
Who Should Win: Duncan. Simply because he's not flashy or charismatic (his hilarious NBA Finals ads notwithstanding), he is likely to finish his career as the most slept-on player in the Top 10 players ever.
Who Will Win: KG, who has all the personality that Duncan lacks, but still can't touch Duncan's jewelry collection.

BEST WNBA PLAYER
Contenders: Swin Cash, Tamika Catchings, Chamique Holdsclaw, Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie
Who Should Win: Jackson, and not just because she posed in that Aussie nudie mag! (OK, maybe.)
Who Will Win: Leslie, who continues to be the most marketable name in the league.

BEST BOWLER
Contenders: Brad Angelo, Mike Koivuniemi, Pete Weber, Walter Ray Williams Jr.
Who Should Win: Brad Angelo, who is first in the world rankings and match-play appearances.
Who Will Win: Weber or Williams, who are (apparently) the only bowlers that mainstream sport fans have heard of. Weber won this ESPY in '02, with Williams winning every other year. Doubt it'll be different this year.

BEST BOXER
Contenders: Laila Ali, Cory Spinks, Antonio Tarver, Winky Wright
Who Should Win: Wright, because any boxer who can pull off a nickname like "Winky" deserves it.
Who Will Win: Tarver, for his "Upset of the Year"-nominated performance of knocking out the best boxer in the universe, Roy Jones Jr.

BEST DRIVER
Contenders: Scott Dixon, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth, Tony Pedregon, Michael Schumacher
Who Should Win: That driver who's married to Ashley Judd, but that's neither here nor there. Schumacher, but the F1 stuff doesn't play in the U.S.
Who Will Win: Little E, who rules NASCAR. And NASCAR, as we know, rules us all. (What, no '03 winner Tony Stewart on the ballot? That guy's antics are propping up the sport right now.)

BEST NFL PLAYER
Contenders: Tom Brady, Priest Holmes, Jamal Lewis, Ray Lewis, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair
Who Should Win: Lewis (Ray), who remains the most dominating defensive player of his (or possibly any) generation.
Who Will Win: It's going to be a tight one between Brady and Manning, which is sad, because I'd take McNair over either if I needed a QB for just one game.

BEST MALE GOLFER
Contenders: Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, Mike Weir, Tiger Woods
Who Should Win: Mickelson, who turned the corner at the Masters to become the best golfer in the world.
Who Will Win: Tiger, because there's no justice when it comes to a popularity vote.

BEST FEMALE GOLFER
Contenders: Se Ri Pak, Grace Park, Annika Sorenstam, Michelle Wie
Who Should Win: Wie, who doesn't just have the skills that you wish your kid had -- she has the skills that you wish you had.
Who Will Win: Sorenstam. When it comes to a male-dominated voting pool, Annika will be living off that playing-with-guys thing in May 2003 for the rest of her career.

BEST NHL PLAYER
Contenders: Jarome Iginla, Brad Richards, Joe Sakic, Martin St. Louis
Who Should Win: Richards, who was Tampa Bay's go-to guy in its title run.
Who Will Win: Iginla, who emerged from Calgary's amazing Stanley Cup run as the league's most marketable player ("marketable" routinely equating to "best," like it or not).

BEST JOCKEY
Contenders: Jerry Bailey, Stewart Elliott, Edgar Prado, Alex Solis
Who Should Win: Prado, for riding the horse that beat Smarty Jones, one of the year's biggest upsets.
Who Will Win: Elliott, who, along with the trainer, the owner and that ratty track in Philadelphia, was carried into the spotlight by Smarty.

BEST MALE SOCCER PLAYER
Contenders: David Beckham, Landon Donovan, Thierry Henry, Zinedine Zidane (What, no Freddy Adu?)
Who Should Win: Zidane, the FIFA player of the year and the first pick in any Euro Soccer fantasy league (you are in one, aren't you?)
Who Will Win: Beckham, but only because we're pulling for a TV shot of Posh Spice.

BEST FEMALE SOCCER PLAYER
Contenders: Mia Hamm, Maren Meinart, Birgit Prinz, Brianna Scurry, Abby Wambach
Who Should Win: Wambach, who has supplanted Hamm as the best American women's player.
Who Will Win: Hamm, who has us wondering when she'll finally be finished.

BEST MALE TENNIS PLAYER
Contenders: Andre Agassi, Roger Federer, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Andy Roddick
Who Should Win: Federer, who completely waxed Roddick at Wimbledon. It's not even close right now.
Who Will Win: Roddick, because he's good-looking and American (though not necessarily in that order).

BEST FEMALE TENNIS PLAYER
Contenders: Kim Clijsters, Justine Henin-Hardenne, Serena Williams (what, no Sharapova?)
Who Should Win: Clijsters or Henin-Hardenne. I couldn't pick one out of a lineup over the other. Didn't they end up in a couple of Slam finals together?
Who Will Win: Serena, who is America's favorite female athlete, with no competitors even close.

BEST MALE TRACK AND FIELD ATHLETE
Contenders: Hisham El Guerrouj, Allen Johnson, Tom Pappas, Tyree Washington
Who Should Win: Insert your own BALCO joke here.
Who Will Win: '03 winner Tim Montgomery might not get the write-in vote, but maybe Maurice Greene could.

BEST FEMALE TRACK AND FIELD ATHLETE
Contenders: Hestrie Cloete, Gail Devers, Stacy Dragila, Deena Drossin-Kastor
Who Should Win: Dragila, the telegenic pole vault world-record-holder who will take the U.S. by storm this summer in Athens.
Who Will Win: Devers, the '03 winner, in a repeat. (What, like you thought I was going to say un-nominated Marion Jones?)

Dan Shanoff is a columnist for Page 2. His "Daily Quickie" column appears every weekday morning.