ESPN.com - Is it finally time for the Irish to lose?

ESPN.com: College Football

Friday, October 25, 2002
Is it finally time for the Irish to lose?

By Kirk Herbstreit
Special to ESPN.com

There's a lot of talk that Notre Dame enjoyed its first complete game against Air Force, where the Irish physically dominated the game. Now, a week later, there's more talk heading into Saturday's Notre Dame-Florida State game (12 noon ET, ABC). This time, the people are saying the Irish are the Air Force of this week's game. But if that happens, I'll be shocked.

The Notre Dame defense played as well as it has all year last week against Air Force. The way FSU is playing right now -- establishing the run and being more physical -- plays right into the hand of Notre Dame's defense. Sure, Greg Jones is the best back the Irish have seen to this point, the FSU O-line is big and experienced and the 'Noles are coming off a game (even though it was a loss to Miami) that restored their confidence. But the Irish front seven isn't going to be pushed around by any team they play, including FSU. The Seminoles will line up in the I-formation and try to run right at the Irish, which is exactly what ND wants.

	Upset Specials
	No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 13 Florida State FSU has the talent, Notre Dame has the belief. Tune into GameDay. Cal over Oregon State When are people going to start respecting Kyle Boller and the Bears. Alabama over No. 15 Tennessee Watch the Tide take away the Vols running game and roll to the victory.

I think the real potential concern is when FSU throws the ball. Can Notre Dame CBs Shane Walton and Vontez Duff continue to blanket more talented receivers like FSU possesses. While Charles Rogers may be the best receiver the Irish has faced, they have never faced a group like Robert Morgan, Anquan Boldin and Talman Gardner.

Watch Boldin and Gardner vs. Walton and Duff. That's been the strength of Notre Dame this year -- the defense coming up with turnovers. Duff and Walton symbolize the opportunistic defense. Walton has six interceptions -- including one returned for a TD -- and four pass breakups and Duff also has returned an interception for a TD. Together, they symbolize this opportunistic defense.

If FSU wants to get yardage, the Seminoles will need to get some big plays from Chris Rix and the passing game. Florida State will not be able to run Jones on first, second and third down. They have big play ability with Rix and the receivers. The question is can Rix show maturity? What will happen when there's a breakdown -- will Rix stayed poised and find the outlet receiver or will he just run?

The goal is to make Rix win the game by showing he has the poise to do so with the passing game. He has the ability. Chris Rix is the total package physically, but still adjusting to the new FSU philosophy of running the ball and having more patience. He made great strides in Miami. Will he continue to grow against Notre Dame?

For Notre Dame to win the game, it will have to win it on defense. The Irish D will have to give the offense a short field. Offensively, Notre Dame will not be able to rely on the running of Ryan Grant. Don't expect the domination ND enjoyed last week, running the ball any play they want with the ability to get 7 or 8 yards. ND has to have success on first and second down. It must avoid third and long situations or it will be punting all day.

The X factors are Arnaz Battle and Maurice Stovall. The Irish line should be able to protect Carlyle Holiday well enough, but Battle and Stovall must get open. Something that has hurt the 'Noles all season is their secondary in man coverage. Teams have just picked them apart. Battle has the quickness and they can make plays in the passing game.

I've said there something about Notre Dame. Being on the sidelines during the Notre Dame-Air Force game last weekend, you see the way Tyrone Willingham has the team believing in each other. It gives ND a chance to win every game it plays. The Irish are the epitome of playing as a team, believing in each other and not caring who gets the individual recognition. The Irish may lack the individual talent as some other teams, but they have come together better than any other team in the country. Sometimes, that's more important than talent.

As for the pick, well, tune into College GameDay on Saturday (10:30 a.m. ET, ESPN).

No. 17 Penn State at No. 4 Ohio State
Most associate Ohio State with the running game and the start of Maurice Clarett, but if you follow the team closely, you know that for Ohio State to remain unbeaten and continue to have success on offense, the continued development of the passing game is the key. QB Craig Krenzel and the Ohio State wide receivers are more than capable of giving the Buckeyes balance. Krenzel is competing 62 percent of his passes for 1,275 yards and 9 TDs while Maurice Jenkins and Chris Gamble are a dangerous duo on the outside.


	Zack Mills' record setting day against Ohio State made coach Joe Paterno the winningest coach in major college football history.

The real question is whether the Buckeye O-line will be able to handle the best pass rush in the Big Ten. Led by Michael Haynes and Jimmy Kennedy -- 9.5 and 4 sacks, respectively -- the Nittany Lions have 20 sacks. Now, the Buckeyes are without their best OL Shane Olivea, who underwent an emergency appendectomy earlier in the week. That means freshman Rob Sims now starts at LT with Ivan Douglas moving to RT to replace Olivea. Now, a freshman will be going head-to-head with the Big Ten sack leader Haynes. Think Penn State doesn't like that matchup? Expect a TE or FB to help Sims out.

But regardless of who plays, the Buckeyes need to throw the ball early to take the pressure off Clarett. They need to make sure the Nittany Lions respect the pass and then Ohio State can go back to the running game.

Offensively, Penn State has the best QB in the conference in Zack Mills. His running, throwing and ability to improvise is what separates him from the rest. He has the ability to make big plays under pressure and that give the Nittany Lions a legitimate chance of winning every game on the road. Ohio State has been tough against the run and it will need to to continue that against Larry Johnson, one of the best backs in the country.

The Ohio State secondary -- especially the cornerbacks -- has been exposed in recent weeks. Dustin Fox is solid at one corner, but E.J. Underwood and Harlan Jacobs have been inconsistent. Look for Penn State to attack their side of the field.

If this game were in Happy Valley, I'd pick Penn State to win. But the fact this is in Columbus -- a place Penn State has lost the last four meetings -- I'm going with the Buckeyes. Look for another hard-fought game with the Ohio State D coming up with some big turnovers and the Ohio State offense will rally despite the loss of Olivea. The balance of Krenzel and Clarett will be too much for PSU. Ohio State wins 30-24.

No. 14 Iowa at No. 8 Michigan
This is a huge game. Iowa has become the trendy pick to win the Big Ten because of the way he's been able to win games against Penn State and Purdue. It shows the Hawkeyes have faced adversity and been able to come up with big wins, which creates a lot of confidence.

I think Iowa's offense -- along with Penn State -- is the probably the most versatile and explosive in the conference Brad Banks has really come on week after week. He's thrown for 1,575 yards, 15 TDs and completed 58.7 percent of his passes. He has the ability to win games with his arm and with his ability to create, buy time and throw the ball downfield. He has a very good group of receivers in Maurice Brown, C.J. Jones, Ed Hinkel and Dallas Clark. Combined, they have 88 receptions for 1,436 yards and 15 TDs. With the shifty running of Fred Russell (946 yards, 8 TDs), the Hawkeyes have more than enough weapons to make this offense dangerous and difficult to handle.

The big question is will Michigan be able to make Iowa one-dimensional. Can the Wolverines slow down Russell and put Banks in obvious passing situations. If not, Michigan can be in big trouble. Michigan's pass defense have improved the past couple of weeks, but it's still been known to give up a lot of yards to good teams.

The Michigan offense is starting to click. John Navarre has been getting the ball downfield and I think Navarre is making better decisions. WR Braylon Edwards has emerged as the Wolverines' go-to guy. He leads the team in receptions (36), yards (615) and TDs (8). Add in Ronald Bellamy and TE Bennie Joppru, and Navarre has some weapons.

What's missing is a RB that is a difference maker. While Chris Perry has been good enough to get three or four yards, but he's hardly been a threat to break the big one, at least he hasn't shown that since the opener against Washington. Michigan needs that threat. The way you attack Iowa is run, run and run some more and then throw the ball. Iowa gives up an average of 320 passing yards per game. They have started getting more pressure on the QBs -- nine sacks in the last two weeks -- and will need to do that against Navarre.

Even tough Iowa has become the trendy pick in the Big Ten and as much as I like its offense, Michigan always seems to find ways to win these kind of games in October, especially when the game's in Ann Arbor. Banks and Russell will get their yards, but Michigan will make plays when they have to. Navarre continues to show improvement and watch Edwards - he'll have a big game. Michigan win 27-23.

No. 16 USC at No. 12 Oregon
You can absolutely forget about trying to figure out the Pac-10. Other than the fact we know there will be a combined 1,000 yards of total offense between USC and Oregon and a combined 70-plus points, who knows what will happen here.

USC Carson Palmer, Sultan McCullough and one of my favorite freshman in the country, WR Mike Williams, should put up some big points. Oregon loves to play man coverage, which should open things up for the USC passing game. Williams, Kareem Kelly and Keary Colbert will put up big numbers against that Oregon secondary.

Oregon's offense has to keep up with USC score for score. Last week, Jason Fife threw 3 TDs, Onterrio Smith ran for 172 yards and 3 TDs and the Ducks scored 42 points and it wasn't enough against Arizona State. Can they do that against one of the better defenses in the Pac-10.

This is one of those games that depends on where the game is played and who has the ball last. With the game being played in Eugene with the Ducks coming off a heartbreaker, here's guessing the Ducks have the ball last and find a way to win. Oregon 41-38.

No. 5 Georgia at Kentucky
With Georgia's injuries - Freddie Gibson and Musa Smith (thumb surgeries) and OL Jon Stinchcomb (knee) are out - the 'Dawgs must go on the road and be able to take Kentucky's best shot. Is Georgia going to show up with the same mindset they've had all season even though they're going against a perennial SEC bottom feeder? They better now.

This is a much improved Kentucky team that can score with Jared Lorenzen at the helm and a defense that is much more athletic. There's a blue-collar mentality. Kentucky is bowl ineligible and this is just another way to keep the 'Cats motivated. Kentucky will be fired up. Georgia better show up with serious intentions.

David Greene is coming off his best game as a starting QB. He was 20-of-23 for 319 yards and 2 TDs. He even ran for another score. Georgia will win, but they need to be very, very careful. 'Dawgs 30, 'Cats 27.

Alabama at No. 15 Tennessee
No team in the country has been more affected by injuries than the Volunteers. It's amazing they can field an offense with everything they've endured. There's talk of Casey Clausen playing, but I wouldn't be surprised to see James Banks at QB this weekend.

Alabama was able to get back on the winning track with a big win over Ole Miss. Whether it's Brodie Croyle or Tyler Watts, Bama has been winning by playing smart on offense and running the ball with Santonio Beard (435 yards, 5.4 ypc) and Shaun Williams (437 yards, 7.3 ypc) and playing solid defense. I think that's what carries the Crimson Tide to the victory on Saturday. Bama goes on the road and wins 24-20.

No. 18 Iowa State at No. 7 Texas
Seneca Wallace looks to get back on track after a miserable performance against Oklahoma on the road. Unfortunately, he goes up against a similar defense in Texas. But expect him to perform much better. Texas is not as complex on defense with zone blitzes like OU. The Horns are more straight man-to-man which should allow Wallace to make a few more plays. But watch out for DL Cory Redding and Kalen Thornton putting pressure on Wallace. These two could make Wallace's day a whole lot tougher.

It's about time Texas shows it can run the football. Cedric Benson needs to have a big game in this one. While Wallace and Iowa State will play better, I think Redding and Thornton will be too much. Texas wins 34-20.

No. 1 Miami at West Virginia
After struggling against Florida State, many people are talking about when and if Miami can lose. Lot of people are pointing to the game against Virginia Tech. The once chance Miami has to lose this year is when they show up with their C game. When they are not mentally sharp and playing with a great deal of intensity. My only question about Saturday's game is do they respect West Virginia enough to show up in a hostile environment motivated and fired up. Since they are coming off a near-loss to FSU, the 'Canes should be ready to get on the field.

Watch this game. If Miami is flying around, high-fiving and playing with a great deal of enthusiasm then this game will get ugly in a hurry. If they're not out there playing hard, I think West Virginia behind the running of Avon Cobourne and the decision making of Rasheed Marshall. But I think Miami is ready and wins 38-23.

Kirk Herbstreit is an analyst on ESPN College GameDay.