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Monday, October 18, 2004
QB rankings: Week 6

By Aaron Schatz
Special to Page 2

Note: Go to the bottom of the table for a more complete explanation of how Aaron's QB rating system works.

  • Get overall season rankings at footballoutsiders.com.

    SNAP JUDGMENT'S QB RANKINGS FOR WEEK 6
    Quarterback Skinny DPAR
    1. Brett Favre
    25/38, 257 yards
    2 TDs, 0 INTs
    Favre's a living legend and I'll tell you why, everyone wants to be Favre and Favre's still alive. (apologies to Jay-Z) 12.4
    2. Byron Leftwich
    24/36, 298 yards
    2 TDs, 0 INTs
    On final drive, Leftwich was 7-for-8, 76 yards plus the two-point conversion. Once Kansas City pulled ahead, 16-14, Jacksonville ran nothing but pass plays. 12.4
    3. Daunte Culpepper
    26/37, 425 yards
    5 TDs, 2 INTs
    He's the leading MVP candidate right now. Yet all across America thousands of fantasy football owners just wanted to know if they got any points for a tackle. Adjustments for opponent strength knock him out of this week's top spot because the only thing easier than getting drunk on Bourbon Street is getting passing yardage on the Saints. 10.9
    4. Drew Bledsoe
    15/28, 212 yards
    1 TD, 0 INTs
    Frankenstein lives! This is what happens when you let Bledsoe have time to throw. Dolphins only sacked him once. 10.7
    5. Ben Roethlisberger
    21/25, 193 yards
    2 TDs, 0 INTs
    10-for-10, 77 yards and two touchdowns on Dallas' half of the field. 10.7
    6. Vinny Testaverde
    23/36, 284 yards
    1 TD, 0 INTs
    At halftime, that weird "West Coast Offense" Vinny left the building and normal Vinny returned with four passes over 20 yards. 9.7
    7. Chad Pennington
    20/30, 222 yards
    0 TDs, 0 INTs
    Leads the league in pass attempts to running backs with 58. 9.1
    8. Tom Brady
    19/30, 231 yards
    1 TD, 1 INT
    3rd-and-8 strike to Bethel Johnson for 48 yards was same play used by Brady and Troy Brown to beat Miami in overtime last season. 7.2
    9. Jake Plummer
    11/20, 190 yards
    3 TDs, 1 INT
    Only quarterback in Week 6 with more value per play than Plummer was Ahman Green. 7.0
    10. Michael Vick
    12/21, 218 yards
    2 TDs, 1 INT
    Key first down at the end of the game when he scrambled, forced the defense to commit to the run, and then dumped it to the running back. Vintage Elway. 6.1
    11. David Carr
    16/26, 266 yards
    1 TD, 1 INT
    Twice the Texans called my least favorite play, "wide receiver screen with no blockers," and twice Andre Johnson made it work by faking out Samari Rolle. 5.5
    12. Trent Green
    23/33, 315 yards
    2 TDs, 1 INT
    Only two sacks a game in first four weeks; six sacks yesterday. 5.3
    13. Tim Rattay
    18/28, 286 yards
    1 TD, 1 INT
    Rattay's pick to Jonathan Vilma was reminiscent of Freddy Brown's turnover via direct pass to James Worthy in the 1982 NCAA hoops final. 5.1
    14. Drew Brees
    23/31, 227 yards
    1 TD, 1 INT
    He put the Chargers in position to win on the road, and can't be blamed for the fact that Vick finally found a phone booth and came out as Superman. 5.0
    15. Matt Hasselbeck
    27/50, 349 yards
    0 TDs, 2 INTs
    10.2 DPAR after the first quarter. What was with that pass interference call with no time left in the fourth quarter and Seattle 10 points behind with no chance to win? Did the officials take Seattle and the points? 3.6
    16. Jeff Garcia
    16/23, 310 yards
    4 TDs, 2 INTs
    4.5 DPAR passing, -4.6 DPAR rushing. Six scrambles for a combined two yards and a lost fumble. Passing rating is low because Garcia had a number of three-and-outs when he wasn't throwing touchdown bombs. -0.1
    17. Donovan McNabb
    14/26, 209 yards
    0 TDs, 1 INT
    This game was won by the defense, not McNabb. -5.1 DPAR if you take out passes to Terrell Owens. A meager 4-for-8 for 23 yards and an interception on first down passes. -0.3
    18. Aaron Brooks
    22/38, 249 yards
    1 TD, 1 INT
    He's the poor man's Daunte Culpepper. We're talking about a really, really poor man. -1.9
    19. Mark Brunell
    8/22, 95 yards
    1 TD, 1 INT
    Probably leads the league in tipped passes returned for touchdowns. -3.3
    20. Carson Palmer
    20/36, 148 yards
    1 TD, 1 INT
    On NFL Prime Time, Tom Jackson said you can't really blame Palmer for the Bengals' performance, but there is enough bad football here to spread a little blame around to everyone on the Bengals, Palmer included. -4.1
    21. Kerry Collins
    15/31, 136 yards
    0 TDs, 1 INT
    The Broncos gave him the middle of the field and hardly put any pressure on him until they were well ahead, and he still couldn't get anything done. -4.3
    22. Jonathan Quinn
    10/22, 65 yards
    0 TDs, 1 INT
    While D.C. may be excited about a win, those of us in the reality-based community know that stopping Jonathan Quinn is not a difficult task. -5.9
    23. Jay Fiedler
    12/23, 136 yards
    1 TD, 1 INT
    At least there won't be any heartbreak come December. -6.3
    24. Joey Harrington
    12/23, 101 yards
    1 TD, 1 INT
    Lowest-rated QB so far this season in terms of rushing DPAR, he has developed a disturbing habit of running when he has absolutely no chance to pick up long yardage. Seven of 16 runs have been for one yard or less. -9.0
    25. Jake Delhomme
    24/42, 205 yards
    1 TD, 4 INTs
    It looks like the disintegration of the team is finally affecting him, causing him to force passes that just aren't there. -12.4
    26. Steve McNair
    19/41, 210 yards
    1 TD, 4 INTs
    After Monday night, who would have expected Favre on top of these ratings and McNair on the bottom? McNair had interceptions of every kind -- a ball thrown directly to the defense, a ball tipped, and an incorrect route run by Drew Bennett. -12.9

    How DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) works

    The success of each play is judged based on yardage gained towards both a touchdown and a first down. Then each play gets compared to the NFL average on similar plays, based on down, distance, and other variables. Quarterbacks are judged not based on how many yards they get, but on how important those yards are in the context of the game.

    Ratings are also adjusted for the quality of the opposing defense. The quarterback's performance is then translated into an approximate number of actual points that such success (or failure) is worth when compared to a "replacement level" quarterback (defined as any quarterback named "Billy Joe").

    When all offensive, defensive, and special teams plays are added together for one team, the result comes very close to the actual difference between points scored and allowed.

    Among the advantages of this system:

    1. Gives value for first downs, which are not really included in any other QB rating system but are hugely important.

    2. Does not punish quarterbacks who are always in bad field position because of a poor defense, nor does it punish quarterbacks who are always stuck in third-and-long because of a poor running game.

    3. With enough data to begin including defensive adjustment, quarterbacks receive bonuses when they play well against good defenses, and they don't get rated as world-beaters when they shred the 49ers

    4. Includes both passing and rushing plays, which obviously helps a QB like Michael Vick.

    5. DPAR punishes quarterbacks for turnovers but also for fumbles that his own team recovers. Different kind of fumbles have different penalties depending on how often defense recovers for a turnover. Sacks are punished as well.

    6. 5-yard scramble on 3rd-and-10? Worthless!

    7. Actual points! Easy to understand!

    An even longer explanation of these numbers can be found here.

    Aaron Schatz is editor-in-chief of FootballOutsiders.com.