ESPN.com - Draft risk study: Wide receivers

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Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Updated: May 9, 1:49 PM ET
Draft risk study: Wide receivers

By Ted Kluck
Special to Page 2

By position: QB | RB | WR | O-line | DE | DT | LB | CB | S | Study wrap

A trend has haunted bad teams like the Detroit Lions over the past several years: taking wide receivers in the first round of the NFL draft.

Historically, a good many of the NFL's more successful wideouts have been taken in later rounds: Isaac Bruce went in Round 2; Hines Ward, Steve Smith and Terrell Owens were third-rounders; Cris Carter and Andre Reed were fourth-round picks. However, there have also been a number of success stories like Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison coming out of the first round.

Success criteria, first-round wide receivers

We've set the bar at five years in the league, in addition to an average of more than 40 receptions per season. A Pro Bowl selection is the wild card that will potentially trump a shortcoming in another area. In this age of 100-catch seasons, that's setting the bar pretty low, you might say. But I feel like this accounts reasonably for injuries, bad quarterbacking (you know who you are, Falcons wideouts) and other uncontrollables. And for players who have yet to play five years in the league, we'll use a combination of stats accrued to this point and gut feelings about the player.

1989
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Avg. catches	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Browns	13	Eric Metcalf, Texas	179	41.6	3	No
Patriots	16	Hart Lee Dykes, Oklahoma State	26	41.5	0	Yes
Colts	22	Andre Rison, Michigan State	184	57.1	5	No
Falcons	27	Shawn Collins, Northern Arizona	49	19.6	0	Yes

Metcalf was a unique situation in that he saw as much time at RB as he did at WR early in his career, but still logged a very respectable career as a receiver and kick returner, averaging over 41 catches per season. Dykes appeared in only 26 games for the Pats, and Rison had a long, productive and erratic (see: TLC) career with several NFL clubs.

1990: No first-round wide receivers

1991
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Avg. catches	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Lions	10	Herman Moore, Virginia	149	60.9	4	No
Cowboys	12	Alvin Harper, Tennessee	100	27.2	0	Yes
Falcons	13	Mike Pritchard, Colorado	127	46.8	0	No
Cardinals	23	Randal Hill, Miami	103	32.8	0	Yes

Remember Randal "Thrill" Hill? Though he appeared in 103 games, he averaged only 32 catches per season, with no Pro Bowls, so we're attaching the bust label. Pritchard, who at first glance might be bust-worthy, carved out a decent career in Atlanta and Denver. Harper was a disappointment, and Moore starred for bad Lions teams throughout the '90s.

1992
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Avg. catches	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Redskins	4	Desmond Howard, Michigan	136	13.6	1	Yes

Hard to call a player with a Pro Bowl appearance and a Super Bowl MVP on his résumé a bust, but then again, I'm guessing Washington expected more than 13 catches per season when it spent the fourth pick on Howard.

1993
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Avg. catches	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Bears	7	Curtis Conway, USC	167	49.5	0	No
Colts	16	Sean Dawkins, California	139	49.4	0	No
Dolphins	25	O.J. McDuffie, Penn State	115	46.1	0	No

All three were solid if not spectacular, no Pro Bowls, but all hovering around 50 catches per season over long NFL careers.

1994
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Avg. catches	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Steelers	17	Charles Johnson, Colorado	128	39.3	0	No
Lions	21	Johnnie Morton, USC	182	52.0	0	No
Giants	24	Thomas Lewis, Indiana	35	18.5	0	Yes
Browns	29	Derrick Alexander, Michigan	127	46.3	0	No

Johnson was on the bubble, but his midround status, coupled with the fact that he was very close to 40 catches per season and had a long career, kept him off the bust list. Thomas Lewis, however, appeared in only 35 games and was a nonfactor. Alexander and Morton were both solid over the course of long careers. The best receiver in this draft, though, was Isaac Bruce, taken in Round 2.

1995
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Avg. catches	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Redskins	4	Michael Westbrook, Colorado	87	35.6	0	Yes
Seahawks	8	Joey Galloway, Ohio State	161	51.0	0	No
49ers	10	J. J. Stokes, UCLA	118	38.0	0	Yes

We're affixing the bust label to Westbrook, who, as the No. 4 pick, averaged only 35.6 catches per season over an 87-game career. Galloway has been solid throughout, spectacular at times, and Stokes was underproductive.

1996
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Avg. catches	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Jets	1	Keyshawn Johnson, USC	167	73	3	No
Patriots	7	Terry Glenn, Ohio State	137	53.0	1	No
Rams	18	Eddie Kennison, LSU	168	44.5	0	No
Colts	19	Marvin Harrison, Syracuse	170	92.9	8	No
Bills	24	Eric Moulds, Mississippi State	170	66.5	3	No

1996 was a banner year for first-round wideouts, boasting the standout Harrison, who embodies very few of the diva-esque qualities of the typical NFL wideout. There, I used the word "diva." I promise it won't happen again.

1997
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Avg. catches	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Giants	7	Ike Hilliard, Florida	130	43.7	0	No
Dolphins	15	Yatil Green, Miami	9	18.0	0	Yes
Bucs	16	Reidel Anthony, Florida	68	28.8	0	Yes
Panthers	27	Rae Carruth, Colorado	22	20.6	0	Yes

As solid as 1996 was, 1997 was equally terrible. Fans in the state of Florida will remember Yatil Green and Reidel Anthony. Fans of the penal system will remember Rae Carruth. Ike Hilliard was solid for the Giants, just barely sneaking over the bust bar.

1998
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Avg. catches	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Titans	16	Kevin Dyson, Utah	58	29.6	0	Yes
Vikings	21	Randy Moss, Marshall	138	75.1	5	No
Broncos	30	Marcus Nash, Tennessee	7	4.0	0	Yes

Kevin Dyson is known for almost scoring in the Super Bowl, Marcus Nash is known for his Arena League career and Randy Moss is known for being sensational but a locker room cancer. Still, you know a lot of teams wish they'd taken him.

1999
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Avg. catches	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Rams	6	Torry Holt, NC State	126	89.0	5	No
Cardinals	8	David Boston, Ohio State	75	52.5	1	No
Steelers	13	Troy Edwards, Louisiana Tech	88	29.0	0	Yes

Troy Edwards is now playing for the AFL's Grand Rapids Rampage, and Boston now weighs an astounding 350 pounds with 2 percent body fat and runs a 3.9-second 40. He is now a fringe player, but his Pro Bowl season makes it hard to call him a bust. Torry Holt will be in the Hall of Fame.

2000
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Avg. catches	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Bengals	4	Peter Warrick, Florida State	80	45.8	0	Yes
Steelers	8	Plaxico Burress, Michigan State	101	57.5	0	No
Vikings	10	Travis Taylor, Florida	99	44.0	0	No
Chiefs	21	Sylvester Morris, Jackson State	15	24.0	0	Yes
Jaguars	29	R. Jay Soward, USC	11	14.0	0	Yes

Though Warrick technically (barely) met our criteria, I still labeled him a bust, due to the fact that he was the fourth pick, had a short career and never developed as a deep threat. He was last seen playing for the Las Vegas Gladiators of the AFL. At least Las Vegas is a good, stable environment for professional athletes to flourish as people. Soward and Morris were among the worst draft choices in recent history.

2001
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Avg. catches	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Bears	8	David Terrell, Michigan	54	25.6	0	Yes
Seahawks	9	Koren Robinson, NC State	75	40.3	0	Yes
Redskins	15	Rod Gardner, Clemson	90	34.5	0	Yes
Jets	16	Santana Moss, Miami	81	48.3	1	No
Eagles	25	Freddie Mitchell, UCLA	63	22.5	0	Yes
Colts	30	Reggie Wayne, Miami	93	65.0	1	No

This was another ugly, ugly, first round for WRs, made serviceable by the presence of Reggie Wayne and, to a lesser extent, Santana Moss. KoRo has seen his share of the police blotter, while Terrell, Gardner and Mitchell have basically vanished. Robinson was really on the bubble (his Pro Bowl selection was as a kick returner); however, for a top-10 choice, his catches per year and future outlook are too grim to endorse.

2002
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Avg. catches	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Saints	13	Donte' Stallworth, Tennessee	68	46.6	0	No
Broncos	19	Ashley Lelie, Hawaii	79	39.2	0	Yes
Packers	20	Javon Walker, Florida State	64	45.2	1	No

Overall, not a terrible year for the wide receivers, and the mantra for this class may very well be "Big-Play Potential." Walker and Stallworth have more than had their moments, while Lelie has struggled but keeps getting opportunities. According to the criteria, Lelie is a bust, and I'm comfortable with this label for now.

2003
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Avg. catches	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Lions	2	Charles Rogers, Michigan State	14	18.0	0	Yes
Texans	3	Andre Johnson, Miami	61	77.5	2	No
Cardinals	17	Bryant Johnson, Penn State	61	41.0	0	No

While Joey Harrington received the majority of the hate, Rogers may well be the biggest waste of resources in the Matt Millen era, which is saying something. Andre Johnson looks like a star on a bad team, and Bryant Johnson has been a complimentary guy in a deep corps in Arizona.

Crunching the Numbers: First-Round WRs, 1989-2003
Number of WRs drafted: 51

Notable busts: J.J. Stokes, Ike Hilliard, Reidel Anthony, R. Jay Soward, Marcus Nash, David Terrell, Charles Rogers

Number of busts: 23

Bust percentage: 45 percent

Number of wideouts with at least one Pro Bowl appearance: 16

Pro Bowl percentage: 31 percent

Teams with multiple busts: Broncos, Redskins

For the sake of comparison
Percentage of first-round RB busts: 49 percent

Conclusions
According to the numbers, wide receiver seems to be a slightly safer pick than running back, though both are risky positions. Wide receivers tend to play longer -- more a function of WR being a safer position -- than their backfield counterparts, who tend to be injured more often and burn out faster.

Based on my aforementioned prejudices, the 45 percent number seems pretty indicative of bust potential, but there were several players on the borderline. Guys like Desmond Howard and Ashley Lelie, who graded out as busts, arguably could have gone the other way, but when a club drafts a first-round wideout it is expecting a Reggie Wayne or even a Joey Galloway, not a 35-catch guy.

Still, if our numbers teach us anything, it's that a number of the can't-miss wide receivers in this year's draft will actually miss.

Ted Kluck is not a scientist, rather he is the author of three books, including "Facing Tyson: Fifteen Fighters, Fifteen Stories" (Lyons Press 2006) and a full-fledged draft geek. He recently spent a season playing professional football as a member of the Battle Creek Crunch (GLIFL) where he was, without a doubt, a bust.