Monday, May 14, 2007
Updated: October 18, 6:10 PM ET
Carlos Gomez called up
When was the last time a top prospect for one of the New York teams was called up without a mountain of hype surrounding his arrival?
When Phil Hughes got the call, you would have thought he was the right-handed Johan Santana. When Lastings Milledge arrived last season, he was expected to be the next Tony Gwynn. Dare I even mention Generation K of the early 90s?
Carlos Gomez made his major league debut for the Mets on Sunday, and the New York media barely took notice. What's happened here is that Gomez has arrived before the Gotham hype machine could get warmed up. This presents a rare opportunity for fantasy players in keeper leagues; you actually can pick up an elite prospect before most of the world knows he's an elite prospect.
If you look over Gomez's minor league stats, you're not going to be overwhelmed. He's never hit .290 at any level of the minors, never posted an OBP of .365 and never slugged even .430. So what's the big deal?
The big deal is that, while Gomez hasn't dominated in the minors, he consistently has competed and even excelled despite usually being one of the youngest players in his league. Gomez just turned 21 in December, which means he was only 20 for the entire 2006 season, when he hit .281 with a .350 OBP and a .423 SLG for Double-A Binghamton. Why was Gomez in Double-A to begin with? He hit an unspectacular .275/.331/.336 for Low-A ball Hagerstown in 2005, but the Mets were so impressed with his offseason progress that they had him skip the High-A level.
So when scouts -- or even handsome ESPN fantasy editors -- look at Gomez, they can't help but see his massive potential. At 6-foot-4 and 195 pounds, Gomez obviously has room to grow, and it's well within the realm of possibility that he could develop into a power hitter. At the age of 20, Gomez's new teammate, Carlos Beltran, slugged only .363 in High-A ball. Gomez doesn't hit the ball into the ground at an excessive rate, so there's no reason he can't hit at least 20 homers in his peak years.
Now we're talking about a player who should hit for average and could hit for power. If he's going to get a whole blog entry to himself, there's got to be something else ... right?
Oh yes. I forgot to mention this: He stole 105 bases in his last two seasons in the minors, and this year for Triple-A New Orleans he was 17-for-21 on stolen-base attempts in just 36 games. So what we're talking about here, potentially, is a right-handed Carl Crawford.
That audacious comparison might prove true, but that's looking a few -- maybe even several -- years down the road. Right now, a more appropriate comparison for Gomez might be Willy Taveras: a hitter with limitations who will nonetheless steal a ton of bases so long as he gets regular playing time.
So how much playing time will Gomez get? Let's face it: If Moises Alou doesn't go on the disabled list this week with a strained quadriceps, he'll go on the DL with some other injury before too long. Milledge is already on the DL (at Triple-A) with a foot injury. The Mets don't have to give Gomez regular playing time, but there's no compelling reason not to.
If you're looking for speed in NL-only leagues or even deep mixed leagues, Gomez should provide some. Keep your expectations realistic, because Gomez might struggle with the bat, but the good news is that you know he'll run when he does get on base. When Alou (and perhaps even Milledge) is healthy, Gomez will head back to New Orleans, which is probably best for his development. Looking forward, Gomez could be a full-fledged starter as early as next April, and keeper-league players should invest based on that expectation.
