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by Chad Millman

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Chad Millman once spent so much time with Vegas bookies, wiseguys and gambling junkies that he wrote a book on the subject. The Odds is a tale about those characters, their big scores, their bad beats and why they can't quit the game. His weekly column, Behind the Bets, jumps off from there, examining the massive world of gambling—from how the lines are set to who is setting them to what's on the horizon for the sports betting industry. It's a mix of tips, tactics and the stories about the players who have failed. And those who hit it big.



Blowing $66,000 on a College World Series game ... yeah, that qualifies as a meltdown.
Summer's close, temperatures are rising, pretty soon every highway in the country will be a parking lot. Which means people are going to be melting down. And that gave me an idea (well, actually, it gave my editor an idea): What are the greatest meltdown scenes in sports betting history? Granted, I haven't been in every stadium, sports book, basement, warehouse, speakeasy or living room since the Romans first wagered on the Christians and the lions. But I called around and got a sampling of some stories from guys who have seen or been a part of the worst of it over the past 30 years. Here are some doozies:
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The NFL isn't a hypocritical league on gambling, it just lacks serious vision.
NFL owners, already life's biggest winners, want to try their luck with the lottery. That was the news out of their meetings last week, where team bosses voted unanimously to allow stamping state and local lottery tickets with franchise logos, if, ahem, any governments wanted to do a deal.
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Tennis is underrated and under-utilized as a bettors' sport
Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?" A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."
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Passing a bill that would legalize sports betting took a legislature deep into discussion, and the night.
"Don't freak out." That's the email I got from Delaware Governor Jack Markell's spokesman, Joe Rogalsky, on Tuesday, May 5th. It was 8:30 p.m., I had just come downstairs from putting my boys to bed, and checked my Blackberry.
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Online gambling, much of it poker, is ready to challenge for freedom and regulation
Everybody is showing their hands. And the World Series of Poker doesn't start for another three weeks. Yesterday, Congressman Barney Frank (D. Mass.) unveiled a bill called the "Internet Gambling Regulation, Consumer Protection, and Enforcement Act." What's that mouthful of jargon mean? Simply, the congressman wants online gambling, not including sports, to be legal, regulated and taxed.
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There's a big difference between the favorite and the horse wiseguys bet on
(This is an update of a piece I wrote for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine). The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late. "You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
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How an astrologist has the ear of serious NBA bettors.
Whenever Courtney Roberts uses the A-word, this is what happens: "Eye rolls," she says. "A lot of expletives from hardcore science types. I prefer not to use the phrase 'astrology' when I collect data for research." I'll be honest—mine rolled too. My mom is an astrology nut. She once handed me a horoscope for my life that predicted I'd either be president, or a serial killer. No joke. So I was skeptical when readers emailed me about Roberts, whose website, courtneyrobertshome.com, has a nice following among amateur wise guys. Still I wanted to know: Is there really a system here?
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I made the country's first bet on the 2009 NFL season. Seriously.

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Baseball is hurt because it's not a good betting sport. Let's fix it.
The calendar says this weekend is opening day, even if I can still see my breath. But, honestly, I've been too caught up in Jay Cutler's and Josh McDaniels' he said/he said, Gossip Girl audition to notice. Spring training has been what baseball always seems to be until cold and flu season rolls around again, a pleasant bit of background noise. Now, I have a theory about why baseball long ago became the day's second or third most interesting story, unless a Yankee is busted: It is a horrible sport to bet on.
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This guy owns four of the top 15 in the Tourney Challenge field. How?
Joe Jamroz has put in his time. There were three years in the marines during the early 1970s. Then three decades spent as a North Providence mailman, until he retired last October. There's the volunteering he does as the treasurer for his hometown's historical society, which hosted Johnston, Rhode Island's 250th anniversary bash at the senior citizens center on March 15th, Selection Sunday. So forgive him if he entered not one, not two, not even three, but 10 different brackets in this year's Tourney Challenge.
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A New Jersey State Senator is taking his case for sports betting to the courts.
First it was Delaware, could New Jersey be next? ESPN The Magazine has learned that New Jersey State Senator Ray Lesniak, who has been building support in his state to legalize sports betting, will file a lawsuit in Newark's U.S. District Court on Monday claiming the 1992 Professional Amateur Sports Protection Act is unconstitutional and violates state's rights. "We just want to free New Jersey up to adopt sports betting so we can get revenue and boost tourism," says Lesniak.
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Behind the Bets goes ahead and picks a Final Four winner.
For the past three weeks I've done everything I can to make you richer. I asked wiseguys and bookmakers about which coaches they trust most during the tourney (Hint: Stay away from Coach K). The stat geniuses at ESPN helped me come up with new criteria to identify the teams most likely to make not just the Final Four, but the finals (the now or never teams). And the other day BTB offered up the maxims all the sharps believe help guide them through the madness. Then I realized something: Who in the name of Gary Waters wants to do all that work? It's a heckuva lot easier to just ask my favorite wiseguys who they like.
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Which maxims are true when it comes to picking NCAA Tourney teams?
The world is full of maxims: "Above all, try something" (FDR), "Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades" (Bill, my Camp Horseshoe counselor), and "No regrets" (Tim Riggins). College basketball is no different. What do pro bettors have if not hard and fast rules that guide them through the kaleidoscope of moods exhibited by 18 year olds playing in front of 20,000 people? These are the handrails on the roller coaster. Without them, even the handicapper with the strongest liver would turn green every time the ball is tipped.
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Delaware Governor Jack Markell is ready to legalize sports betting in his state.
During his campaign for Delaware Governor last fall Jack Markell often hinted that, if elected, he'd support sports betting in his state. Now that he's got the job, Markell is done hinting. ESPN The Magazine has learned that sometime next week, according to a statehouse source, Markell will introduce a proposal which, for the first time in more than 30 years, makes gambling on sports legal east of the Mississippi River. The plan, which could be approved by the state legislature as early as April, would likely be operational come fall, just in time for the NFL season.
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These are the teams from which the Final Four will emerge.
Cross these teams off the list of NCAA title contenders right now: Memphis, LSU, Villanova, Michigan State. I don't care where they end up seeded or who they open against. I am telling you these four teams will not be serenaded to One Shining Moment. In fact, I'll take it even further: Your 2009 college hoops champs will come from this group: Gonzaga, Louisville, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, UCLA or UConn. Really, my readers, this is important. While your square buddies are cramming on power ratings and Cinderellas, I'm giving you the answers to the final exam.
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The coaches you can trust in March Madness.
I don't know if you've been listening to our prez, but we are in the midst of an economic catastrophe, people. This is no time to be wasting hard-earned dough, even just $20 (sorry, units) on an NCAA bracket. Which is why, even though the tourney is still weeks away, I've decided to turn the next three installments of BTB into a mini stimulus bill. It'll be nothing but tips, hints and traps to avoid so you can win your pool and be totally flush. Then you should do the patriotic thing and buy stuff (like my books, or the Mag, or a subscription to Insider. Or perhaps something useful).
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Sid Tanen, the greatest of puckheads, took his system to the grave.
This is how Sid Tanen died: In his favorite chair, holding his remote, a pad of paper and a pencil on the armrest, Sportscenter on TV. "Until the day he died in 1993, he structured everything around games," says his son, Mitch. More than anything, Sid was a puckhead.
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Millman: The Super Bowl, the safety, and prop betting records
With all the hype about this prop and that prop leading up to the game, I decided to check in with the bookmakers to see how everyone made out after such an epic Super Bowl. Like the game itself, some of the results in Vegas were historic.
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Millman: The art of the prop bet
And the winner is … … not the guy whose email handle is "Hsangston." He wanted to see an over/under on how many shoes or helmets will fly off during the Super Bowl (he had it at three). … or Dan Keefe, who wanted to post how many times they'd do a close up of Russ Grimm (eight).
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Setting the Super Bowl line, determining the action.
My sportswriting hero, Rick Telander, taught me a neat trick the year the Niners played the Chargers in Super Bowl XXIX. As soon as the conference title games ended he closed his eyes and picked a winner and the score. He didn't analyze a thing; he just closed and picked. His prediction: Niners in a blowout.
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Football is over, so now the real betting can start.
Alan Boston's day starts at 5:30. At this early hour, he scans the local papers for stories about all the college hoops teams that have a game that night and makes notes in his bloated three-ring binder. Every season gets a binder; every team has a page. Everything he reads and hears is filed away.
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How an intrepid governor might shake up sports betting ... and politics.
A prediction: Sometime soon—after Tim Tebow brings peace to the Middle East but before the Lions become contenders—you'll walk into your local deli and bet on sports. You won't get pinched. You won't go on the lam if you can't pay up. Seriously. It's a lock. For this, you may have Jack Markell to thank. Which is funny because Markell, Delaware's governor-elect, is not a betting man. Hasn't been to Vegas in 15 years, can't remember ever playing one of his state's slot machines, never gambles on football or basketball.
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When the playoffs roll in, the linesmakers turn to you for help.
Four road favorites to open the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs? It's historic! It's unfathomable! It's the British laying points to beat the Colonies! But you know what makes this moment even more special? The postseason is the one time in the NFL calendar when bookmakers care about you, John Q. Public, much more than they care about the wiseguys.
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How a gift for a good bet became a gift of life.
Once would have been a fluke. Twice a coincidence. But Cassie Vidal's 16-year-old son, Ethan, kept picking winners. He nailed 10 of 11 thoroughbred races at Sunland in New Mexico two winters ago; he picked 68% of all college basketball games straight up last season; 523 out of 763 in college football this year. Finally, Cassie thought, she had proof. Her boy is special.
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Behind the danger of the sure thing
Newsflash: Understanding risk is what separates everyday squares from the big-money wiseguys who live off their gambling wits. Now, here's a piece of candy: Since 2000 the New England Patriots are 50-16-3 vs. the spread when they've won at least 50% of their games and the over/under line is 42 or less. It's true. The tip comes from a math genius with a data-mining program that can apparently find gold. Again: 50-16-3! What's this mean? Well when the Pats face against Oakland on Dec. 14 in a contest whose over/under total is 40, you should probably lay the seven points most bookies are offering.
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Karen Wright is so good it'll break your heart.
[Ed's Note: Chad Millman is a Senior Deputy Editor at ESPN The Magazine, and once wrote a book called The Odds. His column takes a close look at the culture surrounding the bet.] Karen Wright is so good it'll break your heart. I don't mean because she works two shifts a day as a school bus attendant for special needs kids in Tucson; or because the western-frontier twang in her voice snaps with pragmatism; or because she's still upbeat even after spending part of this year in the hospital with burn-like blisters over 70% of her body.
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When an NFL team goes public, the betting scene shifts
[Ed's Note: Chad Millman is a Senior Deputy Editor at ESPN The Magazine, and once wrote a book called The Odds. His column takes a close look at the culture surrounding the bet.] All hail Rams O-lineman Richie Incognito, heretofore known as the NFL wise man. No joke. He may get into trouble, but the guy makes some keen observations. Heading into the Rams-Bears game this past weekend in St. Louis, Incognito called out his hometown fans, saying, "They don't know how to cheer, when to cheer. We get the other team's fans coming in, and they cheer real nice for us. It provides for a good football atmosphere having the Chicago fans down here."
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