FANTASY

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Santana's NL numbers are frighteningly good.

NATURAL HIGH
Johan the Great just got a lot greater with his trade to the Mets
By Tristan H. Cockcroft

Johan Santana is about to take his numbers to a crazy, ludicrous, insane level. But there's no reason for Congress to freak. Santana will only be benefiting from one of the oldest performance enhancers in the medicine cabinet—a move to the NL.

Baseball fans have long suspected that the senior circuit, with its DH-free lineups (1), turns good starters into great ones and greats into legends. But suspicion doesn't pay the fantasy bills—hard facts do. So we looked at all the pitchers since the 2001 season who A) made the leap from the AL to the NL, B) started at least 10 games in the seasons before and after switching leagues and C) ranked among MLB's top 25 in ERA at least once. There were 23 such pitchers, and wouldn't you know it, our league swappers saw their collective ERA drop from 4.71 to 3.83 to go along with an 8% spike in K rate. That's some serious juice.

Of course, there's a simpler way to project how Santana will perform as a Met: Look at his career interleague splits (2) as a full-time starter. Wow. And just in case you think Santana's numbers are merely the fluky product of a small sample size, we point you to the corresponding splits for Dan Haren (3), who traded in his A's uniform for a D-backs one over the winter. Again, wow.

With all these mind-blowing stats in mind, a 20-win, 2.50 ERA, 250K season is certainly possible for Santana, making him worthy of a top-five draft spot. Meanwhile, with his move to Arizona, Haren cements his status as a top-10 starter.

Not even Brian McNamee could provide that kind of boost.

(1) AL DESIGNATED HITTERS VS. NL NO. 9 HITTERS, 2007
                    AVG  OBP  SLG  AB/K
  AL DHs       .265  .351  .443  5.00
  NL No. 9 hitters   .182  .236  .261  3.24

(2) SANTANA'S INTERLEAGUE SPLITS
                                            GS    W-L     ERA     WHIP     BAA     K/9     SHO      IP/GS
Santana vs. AL teams 133    68–31    3.02    1.02    .215    9.69    2    6.68
Santana vs. NL teams    16    10–3    2.16    0.83    .184    9.18    2    7.29

(3) HAREN'S INTERLEAGUE SPLITS
                                            GS    W-L     ERA     WHIP     BAA     K/9     SHO      IP/GS
Haren vs. AL teams    90     36–32     3.74     1.23     .258     7.30     0     6.44
Haren vs. NL teams    12     7–2     2.93     1.10     .219     6.61     0     6.92

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19-year-old Young is a great pickup for keeper leagues.

COURT ORDER
It's promotion/demotion time in the NBA, as teams fall out of the race. John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER)—a per-minute rating of effectiveness, with 15 being average—can guide your roster moves.

MEHMET OKUR (12.8 PER)
The Jazz center has lost his stroke (42.3% FG). Now it's time for him to lose minutes, too. Second-year stud Paul Millsap (16.13) and vet Matt Harpring (15.66) give Jerry Sloan better options.

THADDEUS YOUNG (16.1)
As the Sixers fade, the high-flying rookie wing will get more burn over tired scrubs like Reggie Evans (10.06) and Willie Green (12.26). Pounce on Young in keeper leagues—he's only 19.

HAKIM WARRICK (15.69)
Even before Pau Gasol's trade to LA, Warrick was pushing for more minutes in Memphis' frontcourt. Think Kwame Brown and his 9.91 PER will hold Hak back? No way. Grab him cheap.

RICKY DAVIS (11.72)
Bad sign: Youngster Dorell Wright (14.19) has the better PER. Doomsday: The Heat's trade for Shawn Marion (20.25), who plays the wing like Davis—only Marion plays it much better.

KRIS HUMPHRIES (16.39)
He's 22—just like heralded teammate Andrea Bargnani. But if Il Mago keeps playing like Il Scrubo (10.43 PER), bound-hound Humphries (13.4 rebounds per 48 minutes) will grab more PT.

JOE JOHNSON (15.76)
He's wearing down from overuse (40.6 mpg). If he cedes even five minutes per game to underrated backup Josh Childress (18.1), that will take a major bite out of Johnson's value. Sell high.

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