FANTASY

Steal Sign

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by Tristan H. Cockcroft

Allow us to set the scene. It's August, you're struggling to stay afloat in stolen bases and you're scouring the trade market for a much-needed boost. Who do you want, a proven vet like Ichiro or an inexperienced flyer like Michael Bourn?

We know what you're thinking: The stretch drive is no time to take risks. You should play it safe. And we agree. It's just that the safe play isn't Ichiro.

We looked at every player who swiped 25 or more bags in a single season from 1998 to 2007. We broke these thieves into various age groups (as of Opening Day) and crunched each group's pre- and post-All-Star Game stats. The results told a very clear story. The younger set tends to boost SB production down the stretch, while older players attempt to steal less often in the second half. Plus, they're less successful when they do run. So think Carlos Gomez (22 years old), not Carlos Beltrán (31); Melky Cabrera (23), not Orlando Cabrera (33).

And if you're wondering the exact age at which basestealers hit the wall, it's 33. Stolen bases by players that age drop 8.7% after the Midsummer Classic. Not coincidentally, that's the same age at which full-year stolen-base production effectively tanks: Our group of 33-year-olds attempted steals 11.1% less often than our 32-year-olds.

Ichiro, for the record, is 34.

Put Me In, Coach

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by Will Harris

We all love upside. It's the elixir of the fantasy life. But you won't win your league solely by drafting a young stud such as Johnny Cueto late. As the season wears on, you'll also need to score some under-the-radar reserves with the skills to shine in a regular role. Here are five benchwarmers who should be on your watch list.

JUAN RIVERA, ANGELS, OF He's a forgotten man due to the broken left leg that cost him most of 2007. But he still has the pop he showed in 2006 (.310, 23, 85). An injury to the ancient Garret Anderson is all it would take to give Rivera the ABs he needs
to emerge once again.

ESTEBAN GERMÁN, ROYALS, 2B/3B Looking for this year's Brendan Harris? Germán's combo of speed and contact skills will pay big dividends if the Royals decide he can play shortstop well enough to replace the punchless Tony Peña.

ERIC HINSKE, RAYS, 1B/OF With him buried on Boston's bench last season, it was easy to forget that this guy was the AL Rookie of the Year as a Blue Jay in 2002. In Tampa, Hinske backs up less-proven starters at several positions and still has the bat to supplant one of them.

WILSON BETEMIT, YANKEES, 3B His poor contact rate (82 K's in just 240 ABs last season) means he won't be an asset in average, but Betemit's power indicators are all trending upward. An injury on the Yankees infield would lead to 400 ABs for Betemit, which could mean 20 home runs for you.

CHRIS BURKE, D-BACKS, 2B/OF Burke bounced around in Houston behind Craig Biggio, but is still young enough, at 28, to break out. Now in Arizona, he has the perfect opportunity to showcase his versatility all over the diamond.

The Talented Mr. Roto

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They say the best part of spring training is that every team has a chance. So it goes with fantasy. Even if you left the draft knowing you have a bigger collection of stiffs than a metallic robot army (f I ever start a band, that's what I'm calling it!) you still hold out hope. "Maybe I'm wrong," you say. "Maybe these guys will do something that isn't entirely crappy."

I know that feeling all too well. So join me, won't you, for a column that prefers to see Bartolo Colón as half full, not half covered in gravy. It's a column for the lovers, the dreamers and Kermit the Frog.

1. I invoke the even-Fred-Taylor-stays-healthy-sometimes precedent to say Rich Harden pitches at least 175 innings this year with a sub-3.50 ERA and 150-plus K's.

2. Harden's Oakland teammate Bobby Crosby has his back all season, swatting 25 home runs.

3. Curt Schilling comes back in the second half and wins at least six games.

4. Scott Podsednik (now a backup outfielder for the Rockies, in case you missed it) steals at least 30.

5. All of these current nonclosers end up with double-digit saves: Tampa Bay's Al Reyes, Arizona's Tony Peña, Oakland's Joey Devine, Milwaukee's Derrick Turnbow, Jonathan Broxton of the Dodgers and Carlos Mármol of the Cubs.

6. Orlando Hernández wins at least 10 for the Mets.

7. So does Shawn Hill for the Nationals.

8. Angels C Mike Napoli hits 20 homers and swipes at least 10 bases.

9. Astros OF Michael Bourn steals 100.

10. Reds SS Jeff Keppinger goes 15 and 15.

11. Corey Hart puts up better numbers than Grady Sizemore.

12. Randy Johnson gets to 300 this year. Yes, that means he wins at least 16 in '08.

13. Andruw Jones hits at least .265 along with 30 home runs.

14. A team other than the Yankees and Red Sox wins the World Series.

You can also catch Matthew Berry on ESPN; ESPN2; ESPNEWS; ESPN.com; ESPN Mobile TV; and, as soon as he learns to say "ground ball/fly ball ratio" in Spanish, on ESPN Deportes.

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