FANTASY

Switch Hitters

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Cabrera is a .312 career batter, and it won't be long before he starts showing it.

Fear not, Miguel Cabrera owners. He'll bring the hammer soon.
By Tristan H. Cockcroft

What in the name of Alan Trammell was going on with Miguel Cabrera? Acquired from the Marlins over the winter, he was supposed to maul AL pitching from the get-go. But after hitting a solo shot on Opening Day, it took Miggy Pop another eight games to collect his second RBI.

But maybe we shouldn't have been that surprised. After all, a league switch means adapting to a whole new set of pitchers while playing in unfamiliar ballparks. Plus, a little number-crunching shows that almost every hitting stalwart who switched leagues over the past five years struggled out of the gate. See for yourself.

Of our 16 test cases below, only Bobby Abreu made a smooth transition, but keep in mind that he was wedged between Derek Jeter and A-Rod in the 2006 Yankees lineup. On average, our hitters needed 35 games—about a month and a half—to return to their career norms. Take note that a slump took hold regardless of whether the switch was AL to NL or vice versa.

The good news: Only one of our league-switchers failed to return to form during his first year. And Shawn Green found his way in his second NL go-around. So if you own Cabrera, enjoy his resurgence. If you don't, go get him. You'll thank us in September.

Everyone Must Go

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Ortiz's knee surgery may have taken a bigger toll than anyone expected.

By Jason Grey

You've heard it once, you've heard it a quintillion times: Buy low, sell high. But sometimes it pays to ignore that advice. If you can get 80 cents on the dollar for the following spring slumpers, don't think twice—just do it. Because in two months, you might be lucky to get 50 cents.

C.C. SABATHIA, INDIANS SP
The big lefty didn't top 200 IPs from 2003-06, then threw 256 (including postseason) in '07. His 13.50 ERA through four starts could be an indication of fatigue.

ANDRUW JONES, DODGERS OF
A popular preseason pick to bounce back to 40-homer form, Jones might not even break 20. He looks pudgy, his bat speed has slowed and he's swinging through pitches he once crushed.

DAVID ORTIZ, RED SOX DH
Does Papi '08 = Pronk '07? Maybe not, but Ortiz's 3-for-43 season-opening slump could be a sign he's feeling the effects of off-season knee surgery. Even in the best-case scenario, you have to worry that he'll need regular rest.

RUSSELL MARTIN, DODGERS C
He caught 295 games the past two seasons. So is it any wonder he's straddling the Mendoza Line and has attempted just 1 SB after swiping 21 in 2007?

ERIK BÉDARD, MARINERS SP
This supposed ace strained an oblique last August and has already hit the DL this season with an inflamed left hip. Think this will be the year he breaks the 200 IP barrier for the first time? Yeah, we don't think so either.

ALFONSO SORIANO, CUBS OF
Last summer, the former 40-40 man put the brakes on his running game after returning from a hamstring injury. Now he's back on the DL, this time with a right calf strain. At age 32, Soriano will find it even tougher to get his speed back.

The Talented Mr. Roto

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Forget about Bradley staying physically healthy. What about him staying mentally healthy?

Got the following in my inbox the other day from Clay in Minnesota: "You said you'd never own J.D. Drew. Who are some other guys you would never own, and why?"

Great question. A rational person would answer: no one. Fantasy is about statistical pieces of meat, and whatever names are attached to those numbers shouldn't matter at all. Fair enough. But there are certain guys I just hate. I don't like the way they play. I don't like the way they approach the game. I don't like them, period. I'd rather lose than have to root for J.D. Drew.

Who else is on my list?

1. A pitcher with a K/9 rate under 6. If you're striking out hitters, they aren't putting wood on the ball. If they're not putting wood on the ball, nothing bad is happening.
2. Mark Kotsay, Braves OF. No power, no speed. Either he's going to play every day and be useless or he's going to get hurt and be useless.
3. Liván Hernández, Twins SP. That he's off to a great start matters not to me. He always pitches more than 200 innings and always gives up a zillion hits. Always.
4. Jason Marquis, Cubs SP. Normally I root for Jewish ballplayers. But I'm convinced Marquis actually sets our cause back.
5. Any hitter who strikes out three times more than he walks. I protect batting average like a drunk down to his last beer.
6. Shaq. I realize he has nothing to do with baseball, but I'd just like to point out that not only does he kill your FT%, he's an ungrateful guy who threw Phil Jackson under the bus while riding D-Wade's phantom fouls to a title.
7. Milton Bradley, Rangers OF. He can't stay healthy, and he can't stay sane. Bad combo.
8. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees 3B. I know it's crazy to say the best player in the game will never be on my team, but there's something karmically wrong with the guy. I never get the No. 1 pick anyway, and I don't like paying what it takes to get him. I seriously can't stand him. Or his fans. Or his commemorative coin.

Now you can hear Matthew Berry every day on the Fantasy Focus baseball podcast, available at Podcenter at ESPNRadio.com.

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