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April Fool's

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"My pitching is as wicked as KC BBQ."

Evaluating the real value of April K/9 ratings.
By Tristan H. Cockcroft

What a relief.

When Royals starter Zack Greinke fanned nine Rangers in seven innings on May 1, he reassured his owners that all was well with his right arm. Not that his April numbers were awful. In fact, on the surface, they were brilliant. We're talking a 1.25 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. But underneath those stats was a worrisome sign: a 4.79 K/9 ratio, well below his career norm of 6.41. Rare is the pitcher who can thrive for long with such a low strikeout rate, so many "shrewd" GMs sold high on Greinke after his first few starts, convinced he was destined to come crashing down to earth. Oops.

Let that Rangers game serve as a lesson to us all: April K rates don't always set the tone for the rest of the season. In fact, over the past three years, the average starter saw his K/9 ratio increase from May 1 on. It was only by about a 10th of a point, but hey, it's progress. We've listed the biggest gainers and losers from 2005-07 in the chart below.

Of course, not everyone improves. Among pitchers who qualified for the ERA crown in 2007, 39 saw their K/9 ratio decrease after May 1, while 40 saw that rate go up. That's a crapshoot, indicating that your best bet when looking for a K boost is to check each pitcher's individual track record.

As for Greinke's likely trajectory, it appears the best is yet to come. Entering 2008, his career splits were 5.36 K/9 through April and a sweet 6.54 from there on out.

Minor Improvements

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"I just pray Dusty doesn't overwork me."

By Jason Grey

If you missed out on Diamondbacks fireballer Max Scherzer, here are six future arrivals who will be worth high waiver-wire priority.

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers SP
The best pitching prospect in the minors could explode on the scene just like Scherzer. Kershaw, 20, brings high-90s heat with a curveball so filthy Vin Scully dubbed it Public Enemy No. 1.

Homer Bailey, Reds SP
Last season, he was called up before he was ready and struggled throwing strikes. This year, the 22-year-old is dominating Triple-A hitters with vastly improved command (3.6 K/BB ratio).

Jay Bruce, Reds OF
Cincy's centerfield picture is unsettled. Meanwhile, the 21-year-old Bruce has been raking at Triple-A, following up a season in which he ranked among minor league leaders in hits, total bases and slugging.

Chase Headley, Padres 3B/OF
He's off to a slow start in Triple-A, but don't worry. He'll regularly hit .300 with 20 homers in the bigs. Considering the Padres' anemic offense, the 24-year-old Headley could be in the lineup sooner rather than later.

Colby Rasmus, Cardinals OF
Like Headley, he's yet to get going in Triple-A, but he does have five homers and almost as many walks (17) as strikeouts (19). Bottom line: Rasmus, 21, is an unusually polished prospect for his age (think Nick Markakis) and should earn his big league ticket by the second half.

Carlos Gonzalez, A's OF
He's the top prospect Oakland received in the Dan Haren deal. González, 22, is hitting .343 in Triple-A and likely will be starting for the A's by midsummer. He should provide fantasy value in every category except steals.

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