FANTASY

CLOSING THE GAP

Before you punt saves, take our advice and get some relief.

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Through June 15, Jones was the only reliever with 10-plus saves and more walks (11) than K's (9).

Did you listen? Did you pay attention when we told you (in the preseason) not to overpay for closers? No, you didn't-and you dropped big bucks on J.J. Putz or Izzy or Manny Corpas (d'oh!), didn't you? Serves you right. Well, we're here to say there is redemption in the waiver wire. Because even though a bunch of new closers have already emerged (hello, Jon Rauch), there are bound to be more on the way.

This is why we're so sure. We examined every month of the past three seasons to see when saves entered the fantasy marketplace. Our findings (see chart below) prove that closers are born all the time, even if the birthrates may be somewhat unpredictable.

Before we go further, let us explain our methods. First, we totaled the new closers who hit the mound in each month of the past three seasons. We defined a new closer as anyone who had three saves in a two-week period after taking over or who held the job for a month. We then added up all the saves those closers collectively contributed from their breakout until season's end. For instance, two closers emerged in June 2005 and contributed 27 saves from that month on.

Naturally, given all the volatility coming out of spring training, the first month is a hot one for new closers. Then again, those April numbers are skewed by our old friend Todd Freakin' Jones. He wasn't technically the closer in Florida or Detroit when the 2005 and 2006 seasons began. But then he grabbed the job and ran with it for 77 saves over those two years. Still mind-blowing.

If you're in the hole in saves as we speak, the good news is that July and August are the two months that saw at least 25 saves enter the market in each year. So get ready to strike. To help save your season, we're here to point out which closers are about to relinquish their jobs and which under-the-radar types will pick up the slack.

Are you ready to listen now?

THE FINISH LINE

Hey, we know how it is. The great saves race is so intense this time of year that every half-decent setup guy has probably already been rostered in your league. So what's a closer-deprived owner to do? Dig deep, way deep.

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CHRIS PEREZ, CARDINALS
Meet the likely heir to Jason Isringhausen. The 2006 first-rounder out of Miami is large and imposing (6'4", 225 pounds), and he has the moxie to go after hitters with his filthy stuff.

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CASEY WEATHERS, ROCKIES
Colorado's lost season continues, which is why closer Brian Fuentes is a popular target on the trading block. Don't assume 2007 wunderkind Manny Corpas will reclaim his old job. Weathers, a 2007 first-rounder out of Vanderbilt, is dominating Double-A (9.2 K/9) with his mid-90s heater and is just about major league ready.

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J.P. HOWELL, RAYS
At 38, Troy Percival is hardly the picture of youth, plus he's already spent time on the DL this season. Setup man Dan Wheeler has suffered bouts of wildness in his brief closing experience. Meanwhile, in a long-relief role, Howell is holding lefties and righties to a sub-.200 BA.

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JOEY DEVINE, A's
Despite his team's surprising success, GM Billy Beane won't hesitate to part with Huston Street if the right offer comes along. That would open the door for Devine, who's aiming to return this summer from the elbow strain that has sidelined him since late May. Before his injury, he was fanning 11.5 per nine.

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DENNIS SARFATE, ORIOLES
After seven pro seasons spent mostly in the minors, the 27-year-old is finally getting a chance to shine. He leads the Orioles with 9.3 K's per nine. And with George Sherrill a 50-50 shot to get dealt at the deadline, Sarfate could top the team in second-half saves, too.

CRASH UNIT

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You know the saying. The day a guy is named closer is the day he starts to lose his job. Here are six guys teetering on the brink.

JOE BOROWSKI, INDIANS
He regained his gig after returning in late May from an early-season triceps injury, but that was only because four other relievers failed miserably when they got a chance to close. Borowski isn't striking many hitters out (4.5 K/9), so his room for error is prosciutto-thin.

TODD JONES, TIGERS
Yes, him again. Fireballers Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney are both angling to return this month from shoulder injuries. That means the always-hittable Jones (1.36 WHIP) can't afford to slip a notch.

JOSÉ VALVERDE, ASTROS
Sure, he led the NL with 47 saves in '07, but that was the first time he'd made it through a full season without an injury or a demotion. Here's the bigger uh-oh: Word is, Valverde has been pitching through knee trouble.

C.J. WILSON, RANGERS
He has blown just two chances but been knocked around in some nonsave outings. A small string of botched ops could open the door for someone like savvy vet Eddie Guardado.

BRIAN FUENTES, ROCKIES
The more the Rockies struggle, the more likely it is that this free agent-to-be will be moved before the trade deadline. And it may not be to a team that wants to use the southpaw as a closer.

BRIAN WILSON, GIANTS
San Fran appears to view the 26-year-old as its closer of the future. But even though he leads the NL in saves, the present doesn't look so hot. His 4.3 BB/9 shows he's living dangerously. A prolonged bout of wildness may mean a temporary demotion.

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