SETTLING THE SCORE:
SECOND ROUND, OR NOT AT ALL?

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The financial benefits for Shavlik Randolph going undrafted? Roughly this big.

[Ed.'s Note: Mag Associate Editor Jordan Brenner claims to be both a Yankees and Mets fan, but you can trust him on pretty much everything else. So who better to take on the burning issues of sport in something we call Settling the Score. Basically, he'll take your questions via email and bug the experts for answers. This week's question: Is it better for an NBA player to get picked in the second round or to go undrafted? For more Jordan and Settling the Score, go here.]

The draft is supposed to reward everyone—teams, prospects, agents—so it would seem counterintuitive for a would-be-pro to dread the sound of his own name. But after talking to members from all three camps, slipping out of the second round can often be in the player's best interest.

Joel Bell (Michael Beasley's agent) has represented several second-rounders and undrafted players. He sums up the situation for non-first rounders this way: "Ideally, if you can play, the best thing is to be undrafted, because then you have freedom."

That word pops up constantly in this discussion—freedom. Undrafted players are free to shop for the best summer league fit. If that doesn't work out, they can peddle their services to the best training camp. And if they stick, they won't receive multi-year offers, so if they produce as rookies, they hit the free agent market quickly with a chance to reap greater rewards than a second-rounder who is locked into a minimum contract.

Take Shavlik Randolph. As expected, no one chose him in the 2005 draft. After the initial sting wore off ("an ego thing," Randolph says), he and Bell went to work. The Sixers were interested, and Randolph liked the way his skills meshed with their system. He impressed the team over the summer, had a strong training camp, made the squad and ended up contributing as a rookie. The payoff? Other teams chased him during the summer of 2006, which forced the Sixers to pony up with a two-year contract that paid him more than $1.1 million last season. That's more than the 23rd through 30th picks in this draft will make in Year Three. And now he's free again.

"It was such a blessing because I was able to play a year, prove myself, and now I'm in a situation where I'm about to sign my third contract where other guys are still on their first," Randolph says.

Randolph's situation was serendipitous, but far from unprecedented. At the end of the 2007-08 regular season, 67 active players were once undrafted, more than 10% of the league. Granted, the second round produced 102 guys, but the success of the once-unwanted proves that draft night isn't the ultimate arbiter. In some ways, it's a hindrance. Example: a second-round pick decides to play in Europe to earn some cash and boost his stock. The team that drafted him owns his rights. But if an undrafted player chooses the same route (Andres Nocioni being the most extreme example), he's free to sign anywhere if the NBA comes calling.

Going in the second round does have some benefits. It certainly offers more security, especially for players chosen between 31-40. Those guys almost assuredly will receive multi-year contracts, sometimes worth as much as late first-rounders, and will hold more clout at camp. Says 76ers GM Ed Stefanski, "It's only natural if you draft a guy, he might get a more favorable look in training camp."

But the safety of a multi-year, first contract comes with a flipside: If a player produces beyond expectations, he's stuck. Asks Stefanski rhetorically, "If Monta Ellis knew he was this good, would he have signed a three-year deal?"

And that's the rub for agents on draft night. Bob Meyers of WMG has worked on multi-year deals for second-rounders ranging from Dan Gadzuric to Jason Kapono. He's a firm believer that landing high in the second round actually can be more beneficial than going late in the first, given that he can negotiate deals instead of abiding by the first-round salary scale. But, he says, "At a certain point, you cross a threshold where, besides ego, it's better not to be drafted."

That threshold varies based on multiple factors. Meyers points to Seattle as an example. The Sonics own six picks in Thursday's draft; there's no way they'll keep that many rookies. So instead of one of his players getting stuck in that logjam with, say, the 46th pick, he'd rather find a better fit by working the phones after the draft. Ditto for a player joining a team stacked at his position. Most of all, though, the later the draft goes, the tougher it is to stick. Better teams rarely need what a late second-rounder can offer. "If you're drafted between 50 and 60," Meyers says, "it's very difficult to get a guaranteed contract and that team usually doesn't have much interest keeping you."

He's not kidding. In the past five drafts, 24 players drafted after the 50th slot made the league, but only eight have played more than 60 games. Most got a quick look, then got dumped. Was the pride of watching their names crawl across the screen worth the tough situations in which they landed? Hardly.

And that's the funny thing about the draft. Its impact has shrunk over time, figuratively and literally. The NBA dropped from 10 rounds to seven in 1985 and then down to two in 1989. Given the fact that there's even an argument to be made for avoiding the second round, maybe that signals the need for another change. After all, is anyone really going to miss Adam Silver?

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