BUSTER OLNEY'S BASEBALL AT THE BREAK

PACK YOUR BAGS

Billy Beane will swap players no matter where the Athletics are in the standings. So RHPs Rich Harden, Huston Street and Joe Blanton are fodder for trade speculation leading up to the July 31 deadline. Here are three even bigger names:

C.C. SABATHIA
LHP, Indians
Since his lousy start, his ERA is a shade under 2. He could transform a rotation down the stretch—and in October. The Indians won't trade him unless they give up on 2008, and right now the mediocre AL Central is still up for grabs. But many GMs expect Sabathia to move if Cleveland continues to limp along. Although the Cubs are hunting for another top starter, they don't have enough top prospects to deal. The Brewers do. And if the Red Sox are worried about Dice-K, or if the Rays decide to go for October glory in an effort to get a new ballpark, each of those well-stocked teams is capable of making a lucrative three-prospect offer for Sabathia.

MATT HOLLIDAY
LF, Rockies
GM Dan O'Dowd is caught in a tricky situation. Holliday, a Scott Boras client, will be a free agent after 2009, so it might make sense for the Rockies to move him now. On the other hand, while Holliday has been Albert Pujols at Coors Field, he's Jason Bay on the road, hitting about 80 points lower. "You just don't know what you're getting," says a rival GM. "You're not going to give up a lot if the player you're getting might not have much impact." Either way, it seems, O'Dowd can't win. If he trades his best player, he probably won't get as much as he'd like. If he keeps Holliday, it's almost a lock that Boras will steer him to the top bidder after next season.

MARK TEIXEIRA
1B, Braves
With Atlanta reeling from injuries and Teixeira headed to free agency, he might be leaving early. There's precious little power available on the market, and after the Braves got him last July, Teixeira averaged more than an RBI per game. Any interested team would have to give significantly more than the value of the two draft picks Atlanta would get as free agent compensation for Teixeira. He'd make sense for the Angels, the Red Sox (if David Ortiz's injury is more serious than originally thought) and the White Sox.

THIS TIME IT REALLY COUNTS

.643

Bucking the trend, the Angels are at home on the road. Through June, they had an MLB-best .643 winning percentage away from Angel Stadium.

In 2003, Major League Baseball began awarding homefield advantage in the World Series to the league that wins the All-Star Game. This might be the year it finally matters. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, MLB's composite home team winning percentage (.565 through June 28) is higher than in any season since 1978, and the top teams have been especially dominant. The Cubs (33–10 at Wrigley, thanks in no small part to rightfielder Kosuke Fukudome's .373 BA and 1.039 OPS at the Friendly Confines) went more than a month between home losses, and the Red Sox (31–10) and Rays (30–13) have also crushed visiting teams. We've all heard varying theories to explain this—from the exhausting computer-generated travel schedule to an increasing population of young players who don't know how to handle life on the road. Veterans such as Astros catcher Brad Ausmus will tell you it's all just an aberration, and that might be true. But with the possibility of a Game 7 at Fenway Park on the line, you can bet that on July 15 at Yankee Stadium, AL All-Star manager Terry Francona is not going to use the ninth inning of a close game to showcase a player from a subpar team.

BE AFRAID. BE VERY AFRAID …

… OF THE BREWERS
Ryan Braun normally answers questions as if he were reading from the Crash Davis manual, but after the Brewers were swept by the Red Sox in May, he abandoned the clichés. "We didn't expect to win," Braun said in frustration. A week later, the Brewers started rolling, their deep and dangerous lineup finally stirring. Ace Ben Sheets, in the last year of his deal, is healthy and dominating, Ned Yost is managing for his job and GM Doug Melvin is scanning the trade market. If he deals prospects for a prime-time pitcher—C.C. Sabathia, for example—expect big things from the Brewers.

… AND THE YANKEES
It should come as no shock that a team with a record $209 million payroll will be scary down the stretch, but consider that the injury-riddled Yanks spent nearly half of May in last place. Derek Jeter, Melky Cabrera and Robinson Canó all slogged through the first three months, and will anybody be surprised if they rebound the way Jason Giambi has? The Bombers were all but given last rites a year ago—just before their offense exploded for nearly six runs a game and carried them to a 13th consecutive playoff appearance.

3 DUMBEST PREDICTIONS

WHAT I SAID: The Indians will win the World Series!
WHAT I MEANT: The Indians will win the World Series sometime this century!
WHAT WENT WRONG: The pitching was supposed to be exceptional and the offense functional. Instead, the bullpen collapsed and the bats have shattered like maple. (Where have you gone, Travis Hafner?)

WHAT I SAID: The Cardinals will stink!
WHAT I MEANT: Powered by Skip Schumaker and Rick Ankiel, the Cardinals will surprise everyone!
WHAT WENT RIGHT: Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan are masters at rescuing pitchers from the scrap heap. What they've accomplished this year is remarkable.

WHAT I SAID: The Mariners will win the AL West!
WHAT I MEANT: The Mariners will lie down like dogs!
WHAT WENT WRONG: Pretty much everything, like replacing José Guillén with Brad Wilkerson (now a Blue Jay), signing Carlos Silva (4–9, 5.69) and trading for Erik Bédard, who has shown he's not an ace.

THE TALENTED MR. ROTO

By Matthew Berry

"Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
-John Belushi, as Bluto in Animal House

At the 2002 All-Star break, I was mired in 12th place in one of my leagues and managed to claw my way into first on the penultimate day of the season, only to lose the title by half a point when Luis Castillo stole three bases in the final game. Not that I'm bitter. The point is, before you give up on your cellar-dwelling squad, consider this four-step comeback approach that worked so well for me.

STEP 1 Target slow starters in trades. A.J. Burnett and Robinson Canó, come on down! They're scuffling this year, but Burnett had a 3.01 ERA after the break last season, and Canó hit .343.

STEP 2 It's almost impossible to make up significant ground in the rate categories, so go hard after guys who'll rack up counting stats. A starter such as Oliver Pérez is perfect for this, because his K's will come cheap and you're ignoring ERA and WHIP anyway.

STEP 3 Put your guys in the lineup as much as possible to hoard RBIs, steals and wins. Get as many spot starts as you can, and if your league has a start limit, max out ASAP, then collect high-K relievers such as Jared Burton.

STEP 4 You can't toe-dip into the pool. Dive in, then pray that your players produce. Bluto was right, at least in spirit—and your season isn't over until you decide it is.

FIVE FEARLESS FORECASTS

1. By mastering a changeup and continuing to refine his mid-90s heat, Rays lefty Scott Kazmir will be the difference-maker in the AL wild-card race.


2. Bolstered by Troy Tulowitzki's return from a quad injury, the Rockies will rebound from their awful start and rejoin the race in the equally awful NL West.


3. The Mets will miss the playoffs, but GM Omar Minaya won't be fired in the middle of the night. (Maybe in the morning, though.)


4. Despite a frighteningly thin rotation, the Tigers are off the critical list. "They can hit their way back," says a rival GM.


5. I'm sticking with my best preseason pick: The Cubs are going to the World Series for the first time since 1945. But the Red Sox will win the big ring again.

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