SO YOU THINK YOU'RE HARDCORE

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You've heard it all before, a thousand times. Take two running backs with your first two picks. Wait on QBs, because they're all roughly the same. Receivers are a crapshoot, kickers don't matter, defense/special teams are random, blah blah blah. Problem is, your opponents have heard it all before too, and so you're all doing the same thing at your draft, and more often than not, it's rotten luck that ends up separating the one winner from the many losers. What's the point?

We're here to help you reclaim your edge. In addition to our basic rankings and tips, ESPN.com fantasy expert Christopher Harris shares his advanced strategies—the ones he uses to win his own leagues. Plus, stats freak Ken Daube opens up his spreadsheet to reveal some game-changing metrics. Turns out, no matter how you slice it, kickers are kind of useless. But the rest of their tips will have you rocking your draft table—and kicking luck straight to the curb.

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QBs are the new RBs.

BY THE NUMBERS
Want to know the difference between a good fantasy QB and a great one? Elusive receivers who can turn 10-yard catches into 25-yard gains. Check out the active QBs who benefited most from yards after catch in '07.

ADVANCED PLAY
Tom Brady didn't just lead the universe in yards, touchdowns, completion percentage and QB rating last season. He also finished first in Value-Based Drafting (VBD) points. What's that, you say? VBD is a measure of a player's fantasy points compared to the worst fantasy starter at the position in a typical 10-team league. In Brady's case, he scored 378 points—or 179 more points than the 10th-best QB, Kurt Warner. That relative advantage made Brady the clear-cut fantasy MVP. With the current advent of committee backfields, tightening of pass interference rules and dominance of aerial attacks, we may be entering a golden age of the outlier QBs. So if you're convinced Brady has another big season in him or that Peyton Manning or Drew Brees is set to explode, there's good reason to take that guy earlier than you've ever considered taking a signal-caller. As in: Round 1. Because if you can call your shot and divine the NFL's best QB, you might just be drafting the best player in all of fantasy.

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It's no coincidence that last season saw the fewest 300-carry backs (six) since 1999. The era of the three-down RB is over.

BY THE NUMBERS
He might not be a franchise fantasy back, but Jamal Lewis is money where it matters the most: at the goal line. In fact, among all running backs with at least 200 carries last season, the Browns vet ranked first in total carries inside the 5.

ADVANCED PLAY
For all of Adrian Peterson's crazy highs, he rushed for three yards in Week 14, 27 yards in Week 16 and 36 yards in the season finale. Face it, this is one streaky phenom. So if you're going to tag him, consider smoothing out his high variability with a steady performer. To measure consistency, my colleague AJ Mass came up with the Safety Rating, a formula that combines each player's durability, opportunity and consistency into a single value. Guys who had low Safety Ratings in 2007 include Peterson (No. 22 among RBs), Reggie Bush (No. 17) and Brandon Jacobs (No. 30). LT and Brian Westbrook ranked 1-2, but neither guy will be available to AP owners in the second round. But the next group—Clinton Portis, Edgerrin James and Willis McGahee—might be. All Day and The Edge? Man, that even sounds invincible.

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Definition of depth: Torry Holt is still going strong but doesn't even crack our top 10.

BY THE NUMBERS
No, you're not crazy if you're thinking of taking Randy Moss in Round 1. No receiver dominates the red zone like this guy.

ADVANCED PLAY
It's time to give wideouts some long overdue respect. In two of the past three seasons, three WRs have ranked among the top 10 in VBD; in other words, the studliest receivers have been seriously studly. Yet most owners still cling to the RB-RB strategy in the draft's first two rounds. Not you, not this season. While your rivals are finishing off their backfields in Round 2 with the shaky likes of Willie Parker and Maurice Jones-Drew, cross 'em up with Reggie Wayne, Braylon Edwards, Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. They're all far likelier to exceed the average performer at their position than rushers who almost certainly won't sniff 300 carries. You can always finish off your backfield in Round 3 with, say, Earnest Graham or LenDale White. Trust us, most weeks, you'll barely notice the difference.

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Tier 1 is no longer a party of one.

BY THE NUMBERS
Dazzling he's not. But Owen Daniels is a bona fide fantasy sleeper because he keeps himself on the field by converting a high rate of first downs.

ADVANCED PLAY
We love Antonio Gates. We get misty just thinking about the memories. But noway, nohow should you be drafting him in Round 4 or 5 of your draft anymore. Whereas he was a top-10 VBD player in 2004 and 2005, he ranked just 16th in 2007—in large part because the TE field has gotten much stronger. And in case you missed it, Gates underwent foot surgery in February, putting his status for San Diego's season opener in doubt. So let someone else reach for Gates. When you draft, say, Chris Cooley in the ninth and get only slightly fewer points from him than you'd have gotten from Gates in the fifth, you'll feel mighty smart. And just think about what you could use that fifth-rounder on instead. Know who went No. 60 overall on average last season? Guy by the name of Adrian Peterson. Forget misty. That makes us weepy.

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Don't take one until the final round. Ever.

BY THE NUMBERS
That whole "Look for a kicker whose offense will stall inside the red zone" theory? It's about as reliable as "Take kickers only from top offenses."

ADVANCED PLAY
And a rookie shall lead them. Or not. You see, kickers are random. Last season, 2007 sixth-rounder Mason Crosby was fantasy's most valuable kicker. Meanwhile, the consensus preseason No. 1 kicker (Adam Vinatieri) finished tied for 10th. Look, kickers play a big (and kind of annoying) role in fantasy. But predicting who'll be ranked where by season's end is essentially impossible. Besides, over the entire season, the difference between the No. 10 kicker and the No. 20 kicker is about 10 lousy points.

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Be bold—late. Even if you make a bad pick, at least half the D/STs will be sitting on your waiver wire.

BY THE NUMBERS
Is the best defense a good offense? Last season, 11 D/STs scored more than 133 fantasy points. Of them, only one didn't come from a team that finished in the top 18 in offensive points per game.

ADVANCED PLAY
At first glance, defense appears to be just as random as kickers. The Ravens, last year's preseason No. 1 D/ST, finished 23rd in fantasy points. But history says there's great value in picking D/STs from teams you're fairly sure will have a winning record. That doesn't mean you should grab the Patriots in Round 6 or anything. But once the skill positions thin out, go ahead and snatch the Cowboys in Round 11, the Jaguars in Round 13 or the Jets in Round 15. (Yes, we're kidding about the Jets. But it's good to see you're still paying attention.)

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