THE END IS NIGH

by Rick Paulas

As Yogi Berra famously said, "it's getting late early out there." There are only six short weeks of regular season baseball left, meaning this is the last stretch to fiddle with your roster. Most league trading deadlines are coming up (mine is September 1st) and after that, you're left with nothing but the mine field that is the waiver wire. Blow these next few weeks, and you'll risk actually being productive by not having to constantly check your team anymore. Take this advice, however, and you won't have to worry about a single fruitful day in September!

Let's break down some EndGame Roto strategies, Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse-style!

Pestilence
In the dog days of August, fatigue and wear-and-tear add up quickly. And with more and more teams leaving the "contenders" category, players are dropping like flies with season-enders; Carl Crawford, Orlando Hudson, Jose Contreras and C.J. Wilson have all recently gone down. If you have them you'll obviously need replacements, but the important thing to look for is other teams hit by the injury bug.

The name of the game is exploitation. As the old Chinese proverb goes, "lend a hand not, lest you lose it." Or something like that. The important thing is to take advantage of someone else's poor luck: "Oh, Carl Crawford went down for you? I have Aaron Rowand on my bench. All it's going to cost you is A.J. Burnett … and your soul!" (Note: Request for their soul is completely optional.)

War
As another old saying goes, "All's fair in love and war." And since fantasy baseball is both, everything is fair!

Like Risk, the game of world domination, you want to look at all angles. Even stockpiling in Australia. One approach that isn't utilized enough is the so-called "backdoor strategy", where you gain ground by taking points away from the opponent you're chasing. For example, if you're in 2nd place by only a few points, and the guy in front of you is in a dogfight for stolen bases, try to send some of your stolen bases to the teams chasing him. While you won't gain any points yourself, since he'll lose them the difference will be reduced. Plus, you'll feel like a devious criminal mastermind, which is always good.

(Now's a good time to take a break and offer some advice to those less fortunate, by which I mean, those in head-to-head leagues: Get good players, drop bad players, pray.)

Famine
Biblically, famine rides in on a black horse carrying a balance like that Blind Justice lady. You know, to weigh stuff. In the same way, you must balance out your team. Have a large lead in steals? Ship off your one-dimensional folk like Michael Bourne (33 SBs, .230 BA) or Jason Bartlett (18 SBs, .260 BA) to a team in need of speed. Need some strikeouts and are comfortable with your ERA? Go after a Bronson Arroyo (120 Ks, 5.44 ERA) or Javier Vazquez (141 Ks, 4.74 ERA).

At this point 75% of the season is complete, meaning you should be able to guesstimate your end of the season totals. It's easiest with the "sum categories" like home runs and stolen bases: just multiply your current stats by 1.33 and, presto!, that's what you're on pace for. With "ratio categories" like batting average and WHIP, you're pretty much stuck where you are. It's tough to make up ground at this point in the year. But look on the bright side: You're not losing ground either!

Like Risk, the game of world domination, you want to look at all angles. Even stockpiling in Australia. One approach that isn't utilized enough is the so-called "backdoor strategy", where you gain ground by taking points away from the opponent you're chasing. For example, if you're in 2nd place by only a few points, and the guy in front of you is in a dogfight for stolen bases, try to send some of your stolen bases to the teams chasing him.

Death
The scariest horseman of the four (he rides a Pale Horse, for Pete's sake!) should remind you that it's time to cut your losses. While mostly this means tanking categories—let's face it, you're not going to catch that next person in saves—it also means cutting bait on some prized players.

Throughout the year you've probably have a handful of folks who would eventually "turn it around" because their stats will "even out in the end". Well, guess what? That's not going to happen this year; some seasons are just lost. Look at Erik Bedard, Todd Helton or Andruw Jones. There's no point in trading them since the only thing you'll get in return is a strongly-worded email regarding your horrible offers. So your best bet is to cut them and try your luck on the waiver wire. At least the people you'll be getting back have a chance at helping. Stop feeling obligated to keep them rostered! They're grownups. They can take it.

Which leads us to the all-important fifth horseman …

(Or maybe he's one of the original four; a lot of this End Times stuff kind of contradicts itself.)

Conquest
Conquest is, obviously, the success you will find by following the above steps. But the main reason to even mention him is to drive home the key point of all this: you can't spell Carlos Quentin without the word "Conquest". Go ahead and try. It's impossible.

And that, my friends, is definitely not the case for Josh Hamilton. Just sayin'.

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Player on My Team of the Week: Mark Teixeira, who warmed up to his new digs in Anaheim—and more important, on my team—by hitting over .400 in his first week. Make yourself nice and comfortable, Tex.

How to Heckle One of My Players of the Week: "I bet it's fun to claim that you're day-to-day and then miss 10 straight games, Milton Bradley. But karma's going to be coming to collect one of these days. And I'll be there, laughing and laughing."

Best Sucker Punch of the Week: Michael Young owners. After a long, hard day at work Tuesday night, you couldn't wait to check your fantasy team. During the train ride home you caught a glimpse of the Red Sox-Rangers final score (19-17?!) and, with Young on your roster, you figured you were in for a pretty decent day. Then you get home and see that he went 1-for-6 with nothing else to speak of. Oh well. At least you had your horrible job to go to the next day.

Buy High: The excitement for gridiron enthusiasts, especially now that Gregg Easterbrook's first TMQ of the new season is up. I suggest printing it out and giving yourself a good 14 hour-stretch to get through it all.

Sell Low: International trust, after revelation of the cold deception during the Beijing opening ceremonies, including fake fireworks and a lip-syncher. Next you're going to tell me everything on TV is fake, even John Edwards' marriage!

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