Reasons Why Roger Federer Will Never Win the French Open

He is the best player in tennis, maybe the greatest in history, the winner of 10 Grand Slams and 48 singles titles, the only male to win three Slams three times each. In short, Roger Federer is one of the world's most dominant athletes.

Twice in the past three years, the 25-year-old native of Basel, Switzerland, has won three of four Slams, and he's been crowned Wimbledon champ four years running. But Federer's résumé lacks one significant callout: a championship on the terre battue, the crushed red brick of Roland-Garros (where play begins on May 27). Why? Read on.

ONE FOR TONIGHT
Grand Slam events are unique in tennis. Rather than one week of three-set matches, Slams are two-week marathons of five-setters. Winning a typical ATP event requires five victories; winning a Slam demands seven. On hardcourts, Federer is so dominant he can struggle through a bad patch and still crush any player in the world. On the soft stuff, not the case. Sure, he has won tournaments on clay—six times, to be precise, most recently in Hamburg on May 20—but all were one-week events. Over the two weeks of the French Open, Federer's attacking style works against him. The specialists—the Spaniards and Argentines—sit on the baseline and return every shot, waiting as Federer grows impatient. Sooner or later, he cracks. Game. Set. Match.

SECOND SERVES
Federer's serve has been solid but not overwhelming in 2007. And while it's fine on hardcourts, he has issues on clay. Federer wins the point on 76% of first serves that he puts into play. That's the good news. The problem? He's been accurate with a woeful 58% of first serves (46th on the ATP). As a result, on more than 40% of his points, he plays behind his weaker second serve, which clay opponents lustily crush to take control of the point. In his loss to Rafael Nadal at the Monte Carlo final in April, Federer was accurate with only 54% of his first serves. When he lost to Italian Filippo Volandri in Rome, it was just 44%. "On clay, you don't get many free points if you don't serve well," Federer said after his loss in Rome. And on clay, he is only as good as his first serve, because he doesn't have the game to dig himself out of second-serve hell.

THIRD WHEEL
Federer has stamped his place in tennis folklore as a go-it-alone guy, with only girlfriend Mirka Vavrinec at his side. That means no entourage and, since May 12, when he fired part-time coach Tony Roche, no one to analyze his game and scout opponents. That's a mistake. Federer hasn't had a full-time coach since December 2003, yet he has flourished on hard surfaces because he's so supremely skilled that other players are simply unable to decipher his code. (Exhibit A: Andy Roddick is 1—13 against Federer.) But against the grinders, Federer needs help. A coach would help him prepare for matches, make adjustments on-site and study opponents year-round to help devise strategy. Sure, Federer wants to maintain the swagger developed from years as a solo slinger. But he also needs a Plan B to dust off when the player across the net isn't melting in the face of the usual Federer onslaught.

FOUR LOSSES
After winning Wimbledon last July, Federer dominated tennis. In late summer, he won the U.S. Open for the third time, knocked off the Tennis Masters Cup in the fall, then in January won the Australian Open without dropping a set. But after 41 consecutive match wins, he reached break point. Starting in March, Federer lost four tournaments in a row, his worst dry spell since he assumed the world No. 1 mantle in early 2004.

The first two losses, at Indian Wells and Miami, were delivered by Guillermo Cañas, a feisty Argentine who plays a counterpunching baseline game out of the clay-court instruction manual: Run like hell and don't miss. Federer then lost to Nadal in the final at Monte Carlo, before falling in Rome to Volandri, who pounced on Federer's serving lapses and wiped him out in straight sets.

The losses were the first indication in years that Federer can be rattled. Opponents feel they can attack his serve and put him on the defensive. They sense a weakness, and the whispers in the locker room are growing louder. Perhaps the mighty Federer has slipped a notch.

FIFTH-SET TIEBREAK
The French is the most demanding event because points last longer and men "play out" the fifth set without a tiebreak, meaning the winner must win the final set by two games. Sure, Federer is fit, but long matches on clay tend to favor the strong, mentally tough baseline-hugging specialists with defense-oriented games. Every Roland-Garros champion of this decade fits the mold: Gustavo Kuerten, Albert Costa, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Gaston Gaudio and Nadal. Federer has little patience for drawn-out matches, particularly five-setters. Overall, he's a woeful 9—10 when going the distance, including 2—3 on clay.

SIX FIGURES
Take your pick: Federer's clay game suffers either from force of habit or from crazy appearance money. Why? Each spring, he is paid a rumored $500,000 to play Dubai. Not to win. Just to show up. But what if, instead of playing Dubai and other spring hardcourt matches, Federer hit the South American clay court circuit and learned to grind, learned the nuances of clay, learned to take some edge off his tennis aggression? What if he turned down half a million bucks to become a dirtballer?

Good question, but it won't happen. Tennis players, particularly the A-listers, are victims of habit, fearful of adjusting winning routines. Look what happened when Pete Sampras added a few clay events before the 1995 French Open. He lost early and never tried it again. But the change could work for Federer. Mentally, he's strong enough to alter his preparation without wrecking his hopes, and he has the tools to excel on any surface. To make his game clay-friendly, all he needs are a few nips and tucks.

SEVEN ROUNDS
To survive in Paris, Federer needs luck, as in luck of the draw. Take 2006, for example: It may have been the most Federer-friendly draw he'll ever see at Roland-Garros. And he still finished second.

In the first two rounds, Federer dispatched No. 157 Diego Hartfield and No. 139 Alejandro Falla in straight sets. Next, he pounded out a four-set win over 2004 Olympic gold medalist Nicolas Massu. In Rounds 4 and 5 he took out Tomas Berdych and Mario Ancic, both aggressive, Federer-like, offensive-minded players (read: nonclay specialists), in straight sets. In the semifinals, David Nalbandian, who once beat Federer five matches in a row, came up lame in the third set and retired. In the final, Federer met Nadal, and not even luck could help him then. It's unlikely Federer will ever again find his path to the final so accommodating. And if he does, a certain Spaniard likely will be waiting to spoil the party.

EIGHT YEARS
Federer has not had great fortune at Roland-Garros, but at least he gets to see Paris before the summer crowds descend.
> 1999 Playing in his first Grand Slam, Federer fell in Round 1 to Patrick Rafter.
> 2000 After advancing to the fourth round of a Slam for the first time, Federer lost to Alex Corretja of Spain.
> 2001 Federer reached the quarters of a Slam for the first time, but again lost to Corretja.
> 2002 Ranked No. 8 in the world, Federer lost in the first round to Moroccan Hicham Arazi.
> 2003 Ranked No. 5, Federer fell in straight sets to No. 88 Luis Horna of Peru in the opening round.
> 2004 Ranked No. 1, Federer fell to three-time champ Kuerten in the third round.
> 2005 Ranked No. 1, Federer lost to Nadal in the semifinals.
> 2006 Ranked No. 1, Federer lost to Nadal in the final.

NINE PLANETS (HELLO, PLUTO!)
All the elements, including Mother Nature, must line up perfectly for Federer to have a chance in France. Unfortunately, the weather report for Paris calls for rain on more than half the days of May and June. And that's an issue. Dry clay is fast clay, which Federer welcomes. He can dictate points, put opponents on the defensive, win sets in less than an hour. Soggy conditions slow the game and give Federer the rainy day blues. Damp clay not only takes pace off the ball by absorbing rebound energy, but the balls become heavy when clay nodules cling to the nap. Both disrupt Federer's game. He hit 58 unforced errors when he lost to Arazi in 2002 in a match held during light rain.

Bottom line: Federer doesn't want to play long, slow rallies with frequent stops to knock sticky clay off his shoes. That game's the choice of a certain Spanish southpaw.

TEN TESTS (OKAY, 11)
Federer may be the greatest all-around player in history, but it's his misfortune to be playing in the era of Nadal, the most gifted dirt player of all time. Until he fell to Federer at Hamburg, Rafa had won a record 81 straight matches on clay, dating back to April 2005. Over the past six years, Federer has faced Nadal 11 times and lost seven of those matchups, including five of six on clay.

WHY DOES Federer struggle against Nadal? Simply put, the 20-year-old Spaniard plays the perfect clay game. He bursts with energy and is relentless. He's strong, moves well, and hits impressively off his backhand and forehand sides. As a lefty, Rafa cracks his powerful forehand cross-court high to Federer's weaker backhand, and he hits the ball with such heavy topspin opponents complain their arms ache from returning his shots. Nadal also hits high-percentage shots and is rarely out of position, critical on clay because the slippery surface makes recovery difficult.

"Federer has to rely on Nadal's weaknesses rather than his own strengths," says Mats Wilander, threetime French Open champion. "And no one is really sure what those weaknesses are."

Federer has won 10 Slams, but leaving Paris with No. 11 and securing the title Greatest of All Time will require out-of-this-world intervention.

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