No Payments 'Til 2007!

The Magazine's Buster Olney checks out baseball's risky marketplace and finds very few bargains and only one guarantee: Buyers, beware

With revenues riding all-time highs,baseball is healthier and wealthier than ever. But wise? Let's not get carried away. In a free agent lot packed with clunkers, GMs are lining up to bid on Barry Zito. While only one gets to spend $80 million on the 28-year-old lefty, the rest won't hesitate to splurge on would-be, should-be or could-be. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Japan's dominant starter, is out there, but you don't get to kick the tires. Roger Clemens could be available for monthly payments of $3.5 million, but he's going on 45 and has bad wheels. Says one AL exec, "A lot of teams are going to do something crazy." Buckle up—it's going to be a bumpy ride.

1 KEY THING THE TIGERS OUGHTA DO
They managed to overcome their low OBP (.329, 24th in MLB) by banging a whole bunch of homers, but to make the playoffs out of a very tough AL Central in 2007, the Tigers will need more lefty hitters. The perfect fit: Barry Bonds. He's the most patient hitter in history, and he and Jim Leyland go way back. Bonds would fill the park, though we hear he'd come with a little baggage.

1 KEY THING THE CARDINALS OUGHTA DO
Chris Carpenter is staying. Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, Jason Marquis and Mark Mulder could be going. No problem. The Cards have proved they can win the NL Central with mediocre pitching. Their real problem is at third base, now that Scott Rolen and Tony La Russa are barely on speaking terms. They need to work things out, because their public spat has diminished Rolen's trade value, and there isn't anyone comparable on the market other than A-Rod. Hmm …

5 GUYS WHO'LL BE OVERVALUED
Ted Lilly With little good pitching available, the 30-year-old lefty's 59—58 career record will stand out. One GM estimates that Lilly will get a $40M deal. Another predicts that for this kind of loot, "he's going to break somebody's heart."

Jason Schmidt He's one of the few power pitchers on the market, but he'll be 34 by spring training, and his 7.6 K's/9 IPs was his worst ratio since 2000. Even so, somebody will pay him A.J. Burnett money ($55M for five years). Aramis Ramírez His monster second half (.328, 22 HRs) quieted talk about a lack of hustle. The Cubs would like to extend him, but if the numbers get crazy, they'll turn him loose. He'll get his money somehow.

Alfonso Soriano After all the turmoil of moving to left, he led MLB outfielders with 22 assists. He'll get more than the $70M the Nationals reportedly offered, despite his dismal numbers in the heart of the order (.153 hitting third).

Carlos Lee He's driven in at least 99 runs in four straight seasons; with teams starved for pop, that translates into loads of cash. The bidding starts at $60M.

5 GUYS WHO'LL BE UNDERVALUED
Moisés Alou He's 40 and coming off a year in which he had only 345 ABs with the Giants. But as a DH/part-time outfielder, he might be the Frank Thomas of '07. Alou drove in 74 runs despite his limited PT, and he kills lefties (.349 in '06).

Vicente Padilla Though the Nicaraguan righty might have the best pure stuff of any free agent pitcher outside of Matsuzaka, his inconsistency so far may temper bidders. Check his numbers—they're better than you think.

Mark Loretta The Padres dealt him after 2005, and the Red Sox tried to do the same last season. He won't get long-term offers, because he's 35 and his is sliding. But he still hits, still catches it at second and still helps you win.

Dave Roberts He gets on base and has stolen 110 bags over the past three years for the Dodgers, Red Sox and Padres. At 34, he remains a solid catalyst who comes cheap ($2.25M this season). Plus, he's a good clubhouse guy.

Jamie Moyer The Phillies may pick up his $4.75M option, but if they don't, someone should grab him. Yes, he'll be 44 in November, but he has already won 52 games since turning 40. And he hasn't thrown fewer than 200 innings since 2000.

3 TOUGHEST DECISIONS
Should the Rays trade Carl Crawford?
The star leftfielder, who doesn't turn 26 until August, is just 194 hits away from 1,000. But dealing him might be the Rays' best chance to get some of the pitching they desperately need.

Should the Jays give Vernon Wells a massive deal? It has long been rumored that the 27-year-old centerfielder wants to play for Texas. He went to high school in Arlington and still lives there. If the Blue Jays can't sign Wells before his 2007 walk year, they'll probably trade him.

Should the Marlins shop Dontrelle Willis? His salary could nearly double, to around $8M, thanks to arbitration—and his value will never be higher. The Marlins have enough pitching depth that they could deal Willis for a frontline outfielder and still contend.

3 DAMAGED BODY PARTS
Francisco Liriano's elbow If he goes the rehab route and opts against Tommy John surgery, the 23-year-old Twins lefty could pitch next year, though he'd be a high risk to break down. If Liriano chooses the knife, he might not pitch until 2008.

Randy Johnson's back The Big Unit's herniated disk needs fixing, and he may open next season on the DL. At age 43, he's 20 wins shy of 300 and has one year and $16M left on his Yankees deal. Those are the facts. Here's the big question: Can he ever be dominant, or even close to it, again?

Jonathan Papelbon's shoulder The guy is a monster talent, and his right shoulder popped out of joint in the simple act of throwing a pitch. That's not too much of a concern for the Red Sox. He's headed back to the rotation, where he excelled in the minors. It's a healthy decision.

3 BOLD PREDICTIONS
Barry Bonds won't get a job In a recent poll of baseball fans, 48% said they hope Bonds doesn't get the 22 homers he needs to pass Hank Aaron; just 33% are rooting for him. Bud Selig would like the whole topic to disappear, so which team is going to step up?

The Red Sox won't make major moves They missed the playoffs after three straight appearances, but Manny Ramírez will still be batting behind David Ortiz in 2007.

The use of performance-enhancing drugs will rise dramatically Long before the feds nabbed Jason Grimsley, players were figuring out how to get and use human growth hormone, the undetectable drug of choice for cheaters.

5 COMMON REFRAINS RE: SCOTT BORAS
" "No way he's got as many offers as he says he has."
" "All he cares about is money."
" "That %$#*&$ hasn't returned my call."
" "Scott, thanks for calling back! Oh, no problem. I know you're busy."
" "You want us to FedEx the check to you, or do you want me to fly it out personally?"

2 GMS on the hot seat

Jim Hendry His new Cubs boss says the goal is to win the World Series in 2007, which might be a little lofty for a fundamentally challenged cellar dweller 98 years removed from its last title. Dusty Baker and Andy MacPhail are gone; Hendry could be next.

Theo Epstein He quit and came back last off-season, but he only recently signed his contract. Pretty ironic, since Red Sox Nation now has a Yankee mind-set: Win it all, every year, or else. Theo will tinker, but Manny's contract will be hard to move, and LHP Jon Lester's illness and RHP Craig Hansen's struggles have limited the GM's flexibility.

1 PRESCRIPTION FOR RELIEF
A shoddy bullpen killed the Indians this year. To shore it up, GM Mark Shapiro is combing his backyard. In addition to looking for the usual free agent sleepers, Shapiro intends to invite some of the organization's best young arms to big league camp. "We need to bring in some pitchers who were not part of the trauma last year," Shapiro says. Tony Sipp, a hardthrowing 23-year-old lefty from Moss Point, Miss., is one of the no-name candidates. The former 45th-round pick, who struck out 80 in 60IPs at Double-A Akron, spent October bearing down in the Arizona Fall League. "I'm trying to make my case," Sipp says. Opening arguments begin in March.

3 TEAMS THAT ARE 3 MOVES AWAY
Jays They need to retain Vernon Wells in center, find an everyday shortstop who can hit (Julio Lugo?) and bolster the pen. Then they just have to pray that starters Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett and Gustavo Chacín can stay healthy.

Angels If they get a big bat to protect Vlad Guerrero—say, A-Rod, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee or Miguel Tejada—shift Howie Kendrick to his natural spot at second base and identify an everyday first baseman, the West is won.

Orioles They should trade Tejada for pitching, throw some cash at Lee or Soriano and pad the middle relief. And it would help if Peter Angelos would let his execs do their jobs with less deliberation. (Okay, never mind.)

3 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR NO. 13
A-Rod tells Oprah that after the Game 4 ALDS loss to the Tigers, four teammates wearing turtlenecks, pin-striped masks and World Series rings (Y2K vintage) gave him a wedgie.
" A-Rod rents a 10-story sign in Times Square to display his career stats side by side with those of Derek Jeter.
" A-Rod announces he's staying with the Yanks, saying that, contrary to popular belief, he doesn't care what anybody else thinks. "And besides," he adds, "I'm going to prove you all wrong and make it work here."

3 VETERANS WHO MAY CHANGE UNIS
Pat Burrell The Phillies tried to dump him at the deadline, but he can veto any deal. Despite having two years and $27M left on his contract, he may face a stark choice: Agree to a trade or ride the pine.

Freddy García GM Kenny Williams wants to make room in the White Sox rotation for Brandon McCarthy. García, even though he's married to Ozzie Guillen's wife's cousin, is the most likely to go.

A-Rod He can't do anything until next October to change his choker label (at least in New York). And if he stays, the A-Rod show might turn into Son of Chuckie Knoblauch. It's better for everyone if he moves on: The Yanks can get a front-line pitcher (Jake Peavy? Ervin Santana?), and A-Rod can get a fresh start.

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