Why does it always seem that one game a week has a ridiculous line? We investigate.

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"But we were minus 2.5!"

[Ed's note: Magazine senior deputy editor Chad Millman wrote a book called The Odds, about gambling culture. He also oversees The Mag's coverage of sports gambling, among other subjects. In a new feature for The Mag.com, he will take a look at the lives behind those making sport's biggest bets.]

Last week I logged onto espn.com's Pigskin Pick 'Em and I saw this line: Eagles minus-2.5 over the Giants. It hung there like a meatball. I was so sure it was a mistake I refreshed. Twice. How often do you see a spread and know it's a bet-what's-left-of-your-savings lock? The answer is never. Locks are reserved for Vegas wiseguys making serious bank betting pigskin, not guys taking the 9:06 train into Penn and sitting in a cubby-hole. Most of the time I'm guessing with as little surety as I had taking the SATs, except "C" is never the fallback.

But this Iggles-Jints game was a no-doubt lock. Everyone had to see that, even those mope Philly fans. How did the bookmakers get it so wrong?

I called my buddy Bob Scucci, who runs eight Nevada sports books for Boyd Gaming, to find out. I met Scooch nine years ago while writing a book about sports bettors in Vegas, aka wiseguys. He was bookmaking at the Stardust, a relic stuck at the wrong end of The Strip catering to blue hairs and locals and making cameos as a sad-sack casino in Swingers. In a town full of epic storytellers, Scooch is a heavyweight. The guy can flat out sling it, and when he's done he'll laugh like he just got away with something. He also knows how to make lines, which is why, before the Dust shut down in 2006, Scooch and his old boss Joe Lupo were setting the spreads in every sport that all other bookmakers—in Vegas, online and off shore—followed. He could teach an Ivy League course in bookmaking theory.

I said to him, "Scooch, what's up with that line? It seems like a gift."

He laughed that laugh. "I know. From the moment we put it up we got feedback from every square in the world, asking how we could make the best team in the world dogs. Even my dad called and asked, 'Is that line right?' "

"But here was our reasoning: Based just on our power rankings, the Giants were two-point favorites. However the game was in Philly. When it comes to the spread, homefield advantage is huge in the NFL. That's a four-point swing. Then we shaded it up a bit, knowing the public likes to bet favorites at home. And, all season, we've been getting a lot more action on the Eagles than the Giants. We figured squares would lay the points with the Eagles and wiseguys would take the points with the Giants. Honestly, we thought the Eagles needed it more. It wasn't a throwaway game for the Giants, but they are rolling in that division. For the Eagles to lose, it's like a two-game swing. We just didn't give the Giants enough credit. And we got killed."

This was what the bookies like to call a trap game: They think the public at large will see a good team needing just a few points to win at home and will be seduced into betting it. Big. Bookmakers aren't trying to guess who will win; they're trying to guess who the public wants to win. They don't have a rooting interest until the game is played.

This week's trap game could have been the struggling Packers, who are favored at home against the Bears. But with Chicago mum about whether Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman will play, a lot of Vegas books haven't even put the game on their boards. So, what's the game Scooch will be watching? Titans minus-2.5 at the Jags.

"The Titans are 8-1 against the spread and they are rolling right now. They have the division locked up. That's what the public knows. They see this great team needing only a field goal to beat a sub-.500 team. But they're going into a hostile environment and this is a must win for Jacksonville. It's almost an identical situation as the Giants-Eagles. Only, this time, hopefully we've been a little smarter."

Then he laughed.

Bet you've got a great gambling story. Email Chad.

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