Buy High ... Ask Questions Later

The Yankees own the "hot pitcher" market. Results? Eh.

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"Put the money in the glove. Oh, thought you were someone else."

There's a difference between raw wealth and sound investing, and the Yankees, today and historically, are a prime example of the former. Not content to scour the market for a hidden gem, they have the tendency to simply let a stock rise, then pay full or more than full value for that player from their overflowing coffers. In today's marketplace, CC Sabathia is already locked up and Derek Lowe, A.J. Burnett, Ben Sheets and probably Sidd Finch are getting offers.

But if they sign, how will it pan out? Let's see.

The signing: According to Elias, with CC Sabathia having signed with the Yankees, he is the 11th pitcher to join the team coming off a season of 15 or more wins since Catfish Hunter did so following the 1974 season. (Ed's note: This includes trades.)

The catch: No other team has acquired more than six of these players during that time. This means that against the entirety of baseball over a near 35-year period, the Yankees snag up over 60% of these types. The lesson has been to simply have a big season and wait for the Yankees to call.

That's where it gets dicey. We called Scott Randall in ESPN Research for those names. The 10 previous pitchers before CC were Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Randy Johnson, Esteban Loaiza, Roger Clemens, Kenny Rogers, Scott Sanderson, Rick Rhoden, Tommy John and Ed Figueroa.

The verdict: For each success, such as milking 17 wins for two straight years out of a 40+ pitcher in Randy Johnson, there are failures, such as Wright or Pavano, who promptly went out and won 5 and 4 games respectively. Rhoden and Sanderson are the mixed types. In each case, the Yankees invested more in cash or prospects for the risk of milking some wins out of a guy late in his career. Each won 16 games (none in the playoffs) in their first year for the Yanks, then tailed off the next year before leaving. Each retired soon after.

One thing is clear. The Yankees have proven they'll pay a premium overe the market to get a few more good years out of aging players most teams see as risks risks on the injury-front.

The Yankees have proven they'll pay a premium over the market to get a few more good years out of aging players that most teams see as risks on the injury-front. Jorge Posada may have gotten $15 million more from the Yankees last off-season than any other team would have even considered offering. Mariano Rivera cashed in similarly.

Today, we'll see if a 36 year-old workhorse like Derek Lowe or the soon-to-be 32 year-old A.J. Burnett also cash in. Each could add to the Yankees list, and likely their mixed results. Burnett has only come close to a full quota of starts in two of nine full seasons in that role, and Lowe wants what Johnson wanted—that last fat deal. Lowe throws for 200 innings seemingly every year, but for how long?

The bigger concern for the Yankees, the team with the highest of all standards, is that the only a few guys listed above pitched meaningful World Series ball. One was Kenny The Gambler, who got shelled in two innings against the Braves in 1996. Tommy John also had a big win in 1981, but the Yanks lost to LaSorda's Dodgers.

And then there was Clemens, who signed with the Yankees at age 36, perhaps looking for that last big contract. He pitched much longer and more effectively than many of us expected, of course, and also befriended Andy Pettitte.

But that's another story.

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