Fantasy World: MLB Free Agency

Free agency will help some players, but hurt others.

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A move to the AL East typically won't help pitching numbers.

As the snow melts and the winter jackets are hung up in the closet for another year of fending off moths—did I mention I'm writing this in Los Angeles, where it's currently 83 degrees?—the fantasy seasons change from pigskin to rawhide. So let's use this first baseball column of the season to decide what some of the bigger moves—CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira…John Smoltz—could mean to your fantasy hopes and dreams. In honor of the Academy Awards, I'm going to dole these out old school Siskel & Ebert style.

(Keep in mind, the thumb ratings are based on what you should expect from them this year in relation to last year's numbers. Case in point, if Ryan Howard were to hit 40 home runs next year, an admirable number no doubt, that's still a thumb pointed south. He was better last year.)

C.C. Sabathia to the Yankees
Last Year: 17-10, 2.70 ERA, 251 Ks
Verdict: Thumbs down! While expecting him to approach 20 wins again might be a bit much even with the potent Yankees lineup behind him—he'll be competing in the fierce AL East, after all—an ERA in the mid-to-high 3s and a truckload of strikeouts should still be guaranteed. Keep in mind though, while there's no reason to expect an injury with Sabathia, it should be noted that (a) he's human; and (b) he's pitched 241 and 253 innings in the past two years, and (c) he tends to roll (pun intended) into camp around 290 lbs.

Mark Teixeira to the Yankees
Last Year: .308, 33 HRs, 121 RBIs, 102 Rs, 2SBs
Verdict: Thumbs up! As good as last year was for Teixeira—especially during his short stint with the Angels—you have to upgrade him just because he's going to be hitting in a lineup with more powerful woodsmen than this year's slate of "Male Performer of the Year" nominees at the AVN Awards. (Oh, and the Yankees are also going to sign Manny to be part of that lineup. Just you wait and see.)

A.J. Burnett to the Yankees
Last Year: 18-10, 4.07 ERA, 231 Ks
Verdict: Thumbs down! There's just no way Burnett is going to stay healthy for all of 2009. These are the number of innings he's pitched in the past five years: 120, 209, 135, 165, 221. Think that most recent number might cause a bit of wear-and-tear on an arm that isn't known for its stability? I do. This year, expect something along his 2006 line: 10-8, 3.98 ERA, 118 Ks in 135 innings.

John Smoltz to the Red Sox
Last Year: 3-2, 2.57 ERA, 35 Ks
Verdict: Thumbs up! This verdict's almost a cheat since it's almost impossible for him to duplicate last year's injury-plagued numbers, so don't expect any outrageous 2005-2007 seasons from Smoltz. But if he can stay healthy (a not-so-insignificant "if") putting up 10 wins, 150 Ks and an ERA in the low 4s shouldn't be out of the question. Keep an eye on him for now though, since his shoulder surgery may keep him out until May or June. (He's also never given up an earned run in 20+ innings at Fenway. Weird.)

Takashi Saito to the Red Sox
Last Year: 18 saves, 2.49 ERA, 60 K
Verdict: Thumbs way down! Closers tend to lose a lot of their value when they're no longer serving as closers.

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He hits and he floats. But he also gets hurt.

Milton Bradley to the Cubs
Last Year: .321, 22 HRs, 77 RBIs, 78 Rs, 5 SBs (in 126 games)
Verdict: Thumbs down! You're not going to find a bigger Milton Bradley fan than myself—even if he has lost some of his appeal after signing with the Cubs—but there's just no way you can expect him to play 126 games next year. That was the second-highest total in his career, and highest since 2004 when he played a whopping 141 games. To say that now, in his age 31 season, he's suddenly going to put a halt to those lingering injuries that keep him out of every other game takes a big leap of faith. You have to downgrade him. That said, if he does somehow end up having a healthy year, hitting in the diminutive confines of Wrigley will only help.

Pat Burrell to the Rays
Last Year: .250, 33 HRs, 86 RBIs, 74 Rs, 0 SBs
Verdict: Thumbs up! Really, there's no reason to expect any change in Burrell's stats with a move to a comparable stadium and a comparable lineup (but with less comparable defensive responsibilities), but since Joe Maddon likes to run, you can expect at least one extra stolen base. Hence the upgrade.

Kerry Wood to the Indians
Last Year: 34 saves, 3.26 ERA, 84 Ks
Verdict: Thumbs down! But not by much. Wood is bound to put up lesser numbers now that he's no longer pitching for the best (regular season) team in the NL. But a lot of that should be off-set by having a full year of closing experience under his belt. Which in turn will be off-set by the odds that he'll go through another year injury-free. See how complicated this job can get?

Francisco Rodriguez to the Mets
Last Year: 62 saves, 2.24, 77Ks
Verdict: Thumbs way down! Forget about the record-breaking save total for a moment; we all know he's not going to reach that again. Just look at his dipping strikeout numbers (98, 90, and 77 in the past three years), the fact that he's giving up more hits-per-inning then ever before in his career (.794), and that his average fastball is down to 92 miles per hour, lowest in his career. Just as most actual GMs were thinking, let someone else in your league spend way too much on him.

Randy Johnson to the Giants
Last Year: 11-10, 3.91 ERA, 173 Ks (in 184 innings)
Verdict: Thumbs up! It's tough to predict what a 45-year-old power pitcher is going to do; Johnson is pretty much in a category all his own. He did put up a 2.41 ERA after last year's All-Star break, is now pitching in the worst division in baseball and is, by all accounts, healthy. So, yeah. Why not?

Brian Fuentes to the Angels
Last Year: 30 saves, 2.73 ERA, 82 Ks
Verdict: Thumbs up! While his actual pitching stats might take a hit while playing in the AL—even though he no longer has to pitch half his games in the Humidor—when you're looking for a closer only one thing matters: saves. Here are K-Rod's save opportunities for the past four seasons: 50, 51, 46, 69. That's an average of 54. Let's say Fuentes blows five saves next year (his average since he's held the Rockies closer job), then that's still a save total in the high 40s. Hence the upgrade.

Jason Giambi to the A's
Last Year: .247, 32 HRs, 96 RBIs, 68 Rs, 2 SBs
Verdict: Thumbs down! Let's go down the list, shall we? He's no longer hitting in an outrageous Yankees lineup, is now playing in the pitcher-friendly Coliseum and just celebrated his 38th birthday last week. Giambi's kind of like the high school sweetheart you end up marrying. You shouldn't feel overly bad about settling for him if you need to, but isn't someone with a whole lot of upside.

Edgar Renteria to the Giants
Last Year: .270, 10 HRs, 55 RBIs, 69 Rs, 6 SBs
Verdict: Thumbs up! Putting up close to career lows in just about every category always makes a great case for a bounce-back year, especially when that person is now playing in the worst division in baseball.

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Player On My Team of the Week: Donovan McNabb, once again, whose 217-yard 2 TD game (one passing, one rushing) and the fact that he's playing in a 3rd playoff game is making my Pick-a-Bunch-of-Eagles plan in my playoff fantasy league look like the work of a genius. Thanks, Chunky Soup!

How to Heckle One of My Players of the Week: "Hey Carolina defense! Jake Delhomme didn't do you any favors, but you might want to think about, I don't know, covering Larry Fitzgerald. You know, that guy catching all of the balls while Anquan Boldin sits on the bench? Just a suggestion."

The Reason For You To Prematurely Wear Diapers Award of the Week: Last week, astronomers in Long Beach heard a "strange cosmic noise" from deep space. They have no idea what it was. My guess: It's a morning radio show from the other end of the galaxy broadcasting a burp as part of their "Practical Joke Gruendday!" (That's "Friday" in AlienSpeak.)

Sell Low: The Power of Evil, after Jose Luis de Jesus Miranda, who claims to be the Antichrist, lost a divorce court ruling to protect his church's assets from his ex-wife.

Buy High: Your viewing pleasure over the next week, after the two best shows currently on television, Lost and Battlestar Galactica, end their long hiatuses (or is it hiatii?) and begin their sure-to-be exciting conclusions. (This is the final half-season for Galactica and second-to-last for Lost.) Of course, as always, be sure to prepare yourself for horrible disappointment. Both shows have a lot of questions to answer in a relatively short time span.

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