Picking the Conference Championships

Here's who we're taking against the spread.

I was driving from Jersey to the home office in Bristol the other day and listening to Mike and Mike on the radio. Greeny was making the case that, right now, Donovan McNabb is playing as well as he's ever played and that he's also in the midst of a Hall of Fame career. He had the numbers to back it up: Five NFC title games in 10 seasons. One Super Bowl. Already more career touchdown passes than Troy Aikman, while throwing more than 50 fewer picks. In the next year or so, Greeny went on to say, if McNabb stays healthy, he'll catch Steve Young in career passing yards. All of this was surprising. I've never thought of McNabb as an all-time great.

While Greeny was making McNabb's case I kept thinking to myself, Why isn't he mentioning Kurt Warner? He's got MVP awards. A Super Bowl title. The greatest narrative in football history and numbers that will go down in history. If McNabb deserves a bust, doesn't Warner? Finally, after a couple segments promoting McNabb, Greeny said it: "McNabb will be going up against another likely Hall of Famer in Kurt Warner this weekend."

That, my friends, is what makes the NFC title game such a hard game to bet on. You've got two QBs who can play as well as anyone who has ever played the game. Only they are the same two QBs who make you squirm and wonder, how can anyone consider these guys two of the greatest QBs who ever played the game?

Too bad you didn't come here to watch me wriggle my way out of making a pick against the spread, because I could try to avoid it all day. But, since you insist, here goes:

Take the Ravens plus-6 against the Steelers
I know what the bookmakers are doing: The Steelers get a couple points because they are home. They get a couple points because they are completely healthy and the Ravens have a couple injuries, especially Terrell Suggs, and they get a couple points because the Steelers are a public team and so many people like to bet them. But I don't like it.

Both of the games these two teams played came down to the wire. They both have huge playmakers on defenses that run hot, feeding the rest of the team. And ask Ben if he thinks a young QB who manages a game but makes enough plays when asked can't hurt you (Hi, Joe). Shoot, I wouldn't be surprised if this game started on Sunday and ended on Monday, the first 20 overtime game in NFL history. That's how tight it is going to be.

If I were a betting man, I'd look at that plus-six as a post-holiday gift from the bookmakers. But I'm not. I have too much respect for money.

Take the Cardinals plus-3 against the Eagles
Honestly, if I were writing this column 20 minutes from now, I might jot down, "Take the Eagles minus-3 against the Cardinals." That's how confused I am.

I've laid out the QB argument. But how about the Cards D? Everyone talks about Jim Johnson's blitzes, but for two weeks straight the Cards made two of the league's hottest backs—Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams—irrelevant. They also made Matty Ice, everyone's new fave, look like a pre-Super Bowl Eli. And poor Jake Delhomme. Was he playing for the Cardinals?

I think in a game like this, which has been a long-time coming for Arizona, being played at home, with a hot D and a receiver in Larry Fitzgerald who could catch the moon right now, you have to think it's going to be tighter than even the three the bookmakers are offering. They could even win.

After all, they've got a future Hall of Famer.

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