Fantasy World: Where Fantasy Stats Predict the Super Bowl

Who wins the Super Bowl? The stats will tell us!

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"You hold the mic, Terry. I don't have my glove."

With the Big Game at the End of the Season finally set—only a week-and-a-half of hype left!—nearly all of the analysis is going to be about one of three stories: (1) How the high-flying Cardinals offense is going to do against the stifling Pittsburgh defense; (2) How one of the most inept franchises in the NFL is going up against one of the most historic franchises in NFL history; (3) How Brenda Warner is apparently hot now.

But none of that matters. No, folks, that's all a bunch of nonsensical hot air just thrown out there to fill up some space in the 24/7 sports news cycle. What really matters, of course, is the answer to this question: Which of the two teams has had the better fantasy squad this year, and what will the final score of the Super Bowl be? Good thing you asked:

QB: Kurt Warner vs. Ben Roethlisberger
Warner was having a fantasy MVP-caliber season during the first half of the year—19 TDs in only nine games—before he returned to Earth and threw only seven TDs over the next six weeks. However, his season ended on a strong note (maybe a preview of his playoff performances?) with a strong four TD effort in Week 17 against the Seahawks. Big Ben, meanwhile, was never a fantasy threat all season, despite being, on average, the fifth quarterback drafted. He finished as the 20th quarterback in overall points and, most shockingly, had eight games where he failed to reach the 200-yard passing plateau. That's only one less than Kyle Orton.
Judgment: Warner, in a landslide.

RB 1: Edgerrin James vs. Willie Parker
Two incomplete grades here, but for two very different reasons. Parker's middling injuries kept him out of six games and made him ineffective for a handful of others. James, meanwhile, was kept out for much of the year after simply looking slow. Both came on strong at the end—each went for over 100 yards in Week 17—and they've been handling business during the playoffs. But that does not make a fantasy season. So, while you can be somewhat lenient about Parker's injury, it's tough to forgive being benched for Tim Hightower.
Judgment: Parker

RB 2: Tim Hightower vs. Mewelde Moore
Two players who took over after their respective starters were relegated to the bench, both Hightower and Moore began their new roles with much aplomb. Hightower had a 22-carry, 109-yard, one TD day in his first action as a starter, and Moore followed up a 17 carry, 99-yard day with a 20 carry, 120-yard, two TD start that probably won a lot of waiver-wire bottom feeders their week. So, to find the winner of this category, we must see how they finished out their seasons: Moore was once again given a backup role after Willie Parker came back, while Hightower was benched when it was apparent he couldn't average more than 2.8 yards a carry. It's tough to side with an owner of that damning stat.
Judgment: Moore

WR 1: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Hines Ward
Pretty cut and dry here. Best receiver in fantasy football? (His 210 fantasy points were 13 higher than Andre Johnson's secnd-place season.) Or a resurgent veteran who gave you top-15 WR production despite being picked in average drafts as the 21st WR overall? While Fantasy World loves a good bargain, you can't dispute the greatness of Larry Fitzgerald.
Judgment: Fitzgerald, far and away.

WR 2: Anquan Boldin vs. Santonio Holmes
This one's even more of a wipeout, seeing as Boldin finished as the seventh best WR in terms of fantasy production and Holmes was a relative disappointment, chosen as the 14th WR overall yet finishing with less points than Muhsin Muhammed.
Judgment: Boldin, by far.

RB/WR Flex: Steve Breaston vs. Nate Washington
Not to take anything away from Washington's decent season (he reached career highs in almost every category except touchdown catches), but there just wasn't enough to go around in Pittsburgh's below-average passing attack. Breaston, meanwhile, was one of the surprises of the year, putting up a 1000-yard season (despite having only three TDs) and showing the Cardinals brass enough for them to most likely invest their Boldin money in something else next season. Say, a running back.
Judgment: Breaston

TE: Leonard Pope/Ben Patrick/Jerame Tuman vs. Heath Miller
Kind of a waste of a category since the Cardinals didn't exactly feature the tight end in their passing schemes. The triumvirate of large, soft-handed men in red uniforms brought in 23 passes all year, 25 less than Miller caught alone. Which isn't to say Miller had a great year—for the seventh TE drafted, he put up 15th TE numbers—but there really isn't much competition here.
Judgment: Miller

K: Neil Rackers vs. Jeff Reed
Insanely similar numbers from the two kickers. Rackers converted 18-of-20 field goals inside the 40; Reed knocked through 18-of-19. Rackers knocked through all six of his tries between 40-and-50 yards; Reed made eight while attempting ten. Outside of the 50, both kickers went 1-for-2. What it comes down to, then, are the extra points. Rackers knocked in all 44 of his point-after attempts; Reed went 36-of-37. And, ultimately, this is why Rackers scored one more fantasy point than Reed this season.
Judgment: Rackers

D: Cardinals vs. Steelers
Most of the above sections favor the Cardinals, so this is where the Steelers need to make up the most ground—and they certainly do. Pittsburgh was a dominant fantasy force this year, finishing second to the Ravens defensive unit only because of Ed Reed's insane nose for the end zone; the Ravens D put up six defensive TDs against the Steelers three. Both in points-per-game and yards-per-game, the Steelers gave their historic defenses of the 70s something to be proud of, finishing first in both categories. The Cardinals, meanwhile, did their darndest to stay respectable by scoring three defensive TDs, intercepting 13 balls and grabbing a league-high 17 fumble recoveries. But you're not going to get much respect from anyone if you give up more points than any team not named the Lions, Rams, Broncos or Chiefs.
Judgment: Steelers

Concluding Judgment:
But is the defensive prowess of the Steelers going to be enough? While conventional thinking has always been "defense wins championships" we're going the other way here in Fantasy World for two reasons: (a) defense does not win fantasy championships; and (b) if the Cardinals win, I'll be seen as a genius, whereas if I pick the Steelers I'm just one of many.

Therefore: Cardinals 20, Steelers 19. (Reed misses an extra point.)

Player on My Team of the Week: McNabb again, but unfortunately, that might not be enough. His three TD passes were enough for my team to keep pace—I can't say the same about David Akers' unfortunate day—but my closest opponent has both Larry Fitzgerald and Big Ben going for him in the Super Bowl. Oh yeah, and the Steelers defense. So really the only way I can still win is if the Super Bowl doesn't happen. Let's go apocalypse!

How to Heckle One of My Players of the Week: "Hey David Akers, it's probably time to start taking those extra points seriously."

The Culinary Memorial Award of the Week: To Robert Decareau who died last week in Nashua, New Hampshire at the age of 82. Without Decareau's accomplishments helping invent the microwave, we'd have to wait forever to eat Hot Pockets.

Buy High: The defense resting, after an Indiana grandmother accused of biting her 6-month-old granddaughter has claimed the bite marks couldn't have possibly come from her since she doesn't have enough teeth.

Sell Low: Getting a Happy Meal in the near future, after a heart-warming story about Nell Pierce-Boykin—a 72-year-old woman from Georgia who is retiring from McDonald's after working there for 39 years—is given the unfortunately nauseating title "Ketchup in her blood."

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