Boston's Breakdowns

Betting expert Alan Boston gives you his CBB picks.

(Each week Alan Boston gives Chad Millman his take on a good bettor's game. Chad takes it from there.)

Peaks and valleys, that's the game. Last Saturday was a very bad day for me betting-wise but the work was very good. In the ebb and flow of a season you know when a team is ready to blow up and give max effort and when a team will have a clinker. Take Wake Forest against Virginia Tech. The Deacons were primed for a letdown in this game, which is why I bet big on Virginia Tech. Similarly when a team hits rock bottom, if they have any heart or good coaching they will come up with a big effort at some point, and you need to be paying attention to see it.

Last Saturday Creighton was at Wichita State, which was 0-6 in conference. But their coach, Gregg Marshall, is terrific. And I knew with the class of his team's conference coming to town and his team being winless, he'd have his kids ready. He has a lot of new players and a complicated system and it takes them a while to get it. But I told myself that they would be ready for a max effort. We made a big bet on it and we happened to win it. It felt so good. It didn't stop me from losing a million ugly games at the wire, but that one game made me very happy.

Thursday night special

(Note: We had planned on putting all of Boston's picks on Insider. Then he got mad at me for trying to squeeze money from people off his hard-earned knowledge. He's a man of the people. So, from now on, you'll get Boston's specials gratis. Enjoy. And buy the man an egg-white omelette next time you see him in Vegas.)

Georgetown minus-6.5 over WVU

I'm gonna make this a simple math game. Both these teams played UConn. Typically a homecourt advantage is worth four points. When UConn played at WVU on Jan. 6 the closing line was WVU minus-3.5. Since homecourt advantage is worth four points, if these two teams played on a neutral court WVU would be half a point underdog.

Now, on Dec 29 Georgetown played at UConn and closed a 6.5 point underdog. Again, without the four point homecourt advantage, on a neutral court they'd be 2.5-point dogs

Now tonight WVU visits Georgetown. In theory, based on how both teams would have fared on a neutral court against UConn (WVU being a half a point dog and Georgetown being 2.5 point dogs) WVU should be a two point favorite against Georgetown. Add in the four point homecort bump and Georgetown should be givng two points to WVU. But Georgetown is favored by 6.5. My power rating has Georgetown minus-3, so I am making a very serious bet on WVU plus-6.5. Bookmakers are reacting to WVU losing big at Marquette, but one game does not a season make and I won't get sucked in by that. I'd take WVU plus-5 if it was offered.

[Ed.'s Note: Chad screwed up the transcription when he filed an earlier version of this story. For anyone who saw that post, Boston knows what he's doing. Chad just can't type all that well. Apologies.]

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