NFL Draft: Trading Down Makes You Go Up? In Most Cases, Yep.

When you're 0-16, you probably have some holes, right? So having more picks seems logical. We explore.

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Jerod Mayo was a beast last year for the Pats. So is it really important what number you go, or just what system you end up in?

Jim Schwartz, first year head coach of the Detroit Lions, says he learned more from Bill Belichick than anyone else.

"Watching him cross every 't' and dot every 'i', there's never a situation where his team isn't prepared." Schwartz should also know that Belichick, like other smart coaches, knows how to stay the heck away from the top of the draft. Unfortunately, that's what Schwartz is stuck with. The Lions have the first pick.

"Hopefully it's my last," said Schwartz, wistfully.

Evidence says he should be hopeful he can get out of the pick before it's his first. You can bet new Lions GM Martin Mayhew, who holds a degree from Georgetown Law, is going to take a look at every option available to slide down.

Both historically, recently and in terms of the current crop of talent, let's look at several reasons people will attempt to trade down this year, who will do it, why they should, (and why it's so hard.)

WHY YOU SHOULD TRADE DOWN

1. There's ZERO guarantee you get a better player earlier:
Look at last year, the Rams needed a defensive upgrade, and drafted Chris Long out of Virginia with the second pick. Who landed the defensive player of the year? The Patriots, who took Jerod Mayo out of Tennessee with the 10th pick, one they'd gotten from the 49ers. Last year was a weak year for defensive backs. Who got the most effective one? Dominic Rogers-Cromartie landed in the laps of the Arizona Cardinals with the 16th pick, and was instrumental in their playoff push. Who was the best rookie running back? Easily Chris Johnson, who rushed for 1,228 yards after the Titans nabbed him at #24 overall.

2. There's ZERO consensus on how the top ten will look this year:
Earlier, Schwartz forcefully hinted the Lions might like an offensive tackle with the No. 1 pick. The problem? Not only do the Lions brass not know who that player is, they don't even know which Smith it might be. Andre Smith from Alabama told us, being the top pick, and top tackle taken was "Very important to him." He didn't knock down comparisons to last year's No. 1 pick, Jake Long, saying people have told him he could be as good as Long. Then Jason Smith, a dominating tackle from Baylor told us, "If you pull my film from Baylor you'll see I'm the best." It sounds like posturing, but it's quite possibly reality. Even after these guys work out, once you add in fellow consensus top ten pick Eugene Monroe, a tackle from Virginia, to say anybody will know who is better of three before the playoffs are finished in 2010 is a joke. Experts we asked have the Lions taking everybody from one of the Smith's, to Matthew Stafford of Georgia, to Aaron Curry of Wake Forest. Unfortunately, every team near the top of the draft has multiple holes. That's why they are where they're at. With so many holes, you're just as likely to get a guy you want later.

3. The cost of blowing a high pick is financially devastating:
In the NFL, we know a No. 1 pick is no different in most cases than a No. 5 in terms of guaranteed performance, yet drafting those four places later saves you between $30-40 million in guaranteed money. Teams that draft high have to be perfect, or they can destroy their salary cap and land in the same place year after year. People assume the NFL is a league with a ton of salary equity. And it is—to a point. If you have a bad draft pick up high, you are just writing yourself a ticket back to the top ten because you'll be handcuffed in the free agent market too.

SO, KNOWING THIS, WHAT TEAMS SHOULD BE TRADING DOWN? ()

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