Fantasy World: The Over/Under

The most overrated and underrated fantasy players in MLB.

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The most underrated fantasy player in the ESPN 100?

Show me a list, and I'll show you a dozen people who think it sucks.

No matter if the list is Hottest Actress from Charmed, Scariest Star Trek Villain or Funniest Mr. Show Sketch, there's going to be a few bones of contention. It's the nature of the beast. And really, the best part of lists in the first place. (That, and using up a good part of your work day reading them.) So when I saw the Top 100 fantasy players in this month's issue of The Mag, I just knew I'd have a few "professional disagreements." Not many, mind you—these are some pretty smart guys making the list in the first place—but enough to write a column about.

On with the Gentlemen's Quarrel!

Overrated

Alex Rodriguez (Ranking: 1)
Even before we learned today that Sir Alex would be out for a while as he recovers from hip surgery, we had some issues. No doubt that when healthy A-Rod's going to put up numbers, but being the first overall pick carries a lot of weight. Last year's 35 HRs were a disappointment, but if you look at his three Yankee seasons before his Zeus-like 2007 year, he was averaging 39 HRs, 115 RBIs, 21 SBs and a .299 average. All fine numbers, but he's about to enter his age-33 year, meaning a downtick is to be expected. That means Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols jump over him, leaving A-Rod on the second tier with the left side of the Mets infield. And again, the injury clouds it all.

CC Sabathia (Ranking: 18)
You just can't expect that second-half dominance to continue because of two important facts: (1) He's now pitching in the toughest division in baseball; (2) He's pitched an ungodly 512 innings over the past two seasons. Expect numbers along his first-half campaign with the Indians—3.83 ERA and a strikeout-an-inning—which is fine, but drops him to about the 10th best pitcher out there, right around John Lackey, who's 46th on the list.

Ryan Howard (Ranking: 20)
Yes, he belted out 48 HRs. Yes, he knocked in 146 RBIs. But look at that dropping slugging percentage over the past three years: .659, .584 and last year's .543, the lowest in his career. He drew less walks than ever while striking out just as much. If he continues on this path, you're looking at an Adam Dunn clone. Not bad, but not in the top 50.

Ichiro Suzuki (Ranking: 21)
"You can't steal first base," the saying goes. All of Ichiro's glorious base stealing abilities mean nothing if he doesn't have a chance to use it. Last year, his .310 batting average was the second lowest in his career, his .361 OBP was the third lowest and his .386 SLG was by far the worst. There's a theory that his lower averages are because his 35-year-old body is losing speed; he's no longer able to leg out those infield hits. If that's the case, Ichiro becomes nothing more than David Eckstein with a bigger following.

Matt Holliday (Ranking: 27)
Everyone knows his numbers are going to tumble after leaving the zero gravity environment of Denver, but his stolen base totals will take a massive drop as well. Last season's 28 were a nice bonus for Holliday owners (his previous high was 14), but besides a natural regression, he's also dealing with a team that doesn't run much. Oakland attempted 109 stolen bases last year, good for 19th in the league, while Colorado tried the second-most base-thieveries with 178. Expect Curtis Granderson-type numbers, who's ranked at number 50.

Underrated

Felix Hernandez (Ranking: 59)
It's kind of amazing you could underrate King Felix after all of the hype, but that's exactly what's happening. His 3.45 ERA was the lowest in his past three seasons, his strikeout rate remained roughly the same, and he's allowing fewer HRs than ever before. But people are scared off by his 9–11 record and the fact that the Mariners shouldn't be much better this year. Luckily, at this point in human evolution we all know that wins and losses tend to fluctuate year-to-year and have little to do with the quality of the pitcher. Pencil him in for 12 wins—a total he could far exceed —and he's on the same level as Jake Peavy, currently ranked 36th despite playing for an even worse team.

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His doubles could become homers.

Alexei Ramirez (Ranking: 63)
Give him a full 650 at-bats and he'd have ended last year with 28 HRs and 17 SBs. As a second baseman, that puts him in the second tier alongside Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips and Brian Roberts, depending on how much you value SBs. But now that he's moved across to shortstop, he's the 4th highest SS on my list, right under Jimmy Rollins, who's ranked 10th overall.

Stephen Drew (Ranking: 82)
The prize prospect finally showed why he put scouts in such a tizzy, knocking out 21 HRs and slugging a massive .502 for the year. He's still only 26 years old, hit .326 after the break and knocked out 44 doubles last year, tying him with Albert Pujols and Aramis Ramirez. If some of those doubles start leaving the park, which can easily happen in the dry heat of Arizona, you're looking at the only shortstop not named Hanley Ramirez with 30-HR power.

Jay Bruce (Ranking: 89)
Anyone down on Bruce will immediately point to his schizophrenic batting line from his rookie year, when he hit .286 against right-handers and just .190 against those who throw from the sinister side. Don't buy it. Bruce has legit power to go along with decent speed. (Expect about 10 SBs.) Since they have the same initials, think of Bruce as a younger Jason Bay, who's ranked all the way up at 37.

Troy Tulowitzki (Ranking: 96)
A kid hits that usual sophomore slump and suddenly he's down to the eigth-highest shortstop on the board, below Michael Young? Those who believe he's a Bobby Crosby-esque one-hit-wonder need look no further than his final month of the year, when he hit .318. And doesn't playing half your games in Colorado mean anything anymore?

Player On My Team of the Week: Brandon Marshall, who was obviously doing nothing wrong when cops busted him for disorderly conduct, since the charge was immediately dropped. And while Roger Goodell, in his infinite wisdom, may want to suspend him for a few games to start next season, I can say, as a Marshall owner in a keeper league, that I'm sure the young receiver has learned his lesson. Really.

How to Heckle One Of My Players of the Week: "Good to see you're already in midseason form, Milton Bradley."

The Death Defier of the Week: Mike Nelson, of Mystery Science Theater 3000 and Riff Trax fame, after getting through most of the month of February on a diet of bacon alone.

Buy High: All the steroid-induced numbers being eventually stricken from the record books after Dr. Jeffrey Steinberg made the claim that his fertility institutes can custom design a baby's hair and eye color. It's only a matter of time before "Power Hitting Second Baseman" is one of the options.

Sell Low: Greg Oden's depression after Portland has been named the "unhappiest city in America."

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