Fantasy World: Draft Lessons

What is learned when ESPN's fantasy experts gather for a draft?

Getty Images

Does Matt Kemp wield Jedi powers over fantasy owners?

Last week, I participated in two mock drafts with the ESPN Fantasy collective. While the experiment had its downsides (having to actually set an alarm, being forced to part with my sure-to-be-extraordinary teams, etc.) it taught us a few very important lessons in regards to what to expect in your own upcoming drafts, lessons I'm going to teach you right now for the low, low price of nothing! As usual, if you're in one of my leagues, please feel free to do the exact opposite of what I advise.

(Note: In both cases, it was 12-team, 5X5 Roto leagues. For the complete draft results, head over here for the AL-only version, and here for the NL-only.)

AL-only Lessons

The hype surrounding Matt Wieters has gotten out of hand.
Wieters, the Baltimore catcher who has yet to see a major league pitch and will most likely start the year in the minors, was drafted 74th overall, the third catcher taken after Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez. While there's no doubt Wieters will make some kind of impact this year, there's no reason to use a pick this high on him unless you're in a keeper league. And even then, there will be fools in keeper leagues using a first or second round pick on him. Unless you're his father, or in a league with fans who haven't cracked a newspaper in a year, it's best to let this one get away.

Ichiro's name is the most valuable thing about him.
Don't get me wrong. Ichiro is a fine player and a great ambassador to the game, whatever that means. But it's time to accept the reality: He's no longer an elite player. Sure, he's going to score his 100 runs, put up his .300 average and steal 40 bases, but since his power is non-existent, he's nothing more than a three-category threat. Oh yeah, and he's 35. Taken eighth overall in our draft, he may not even be the eighth best outfielder.

Someone is going to steal A-Rod, might as well be you!
There's still plenty of mystery regarding how long Alex Rodriguez is going to be out; the rough estimate right now is that he'll miss about 23 games. Since he was expected to have a pretty great year like usual, here are his projections taking into account only playing in 139 games: 34 HRs, 102 RBIs, 100 Rs, 17 SBs and a batting average of .304. In other words, he's worth a lot more than just the 19th pick in an AL-only league. If you don't trust him to come back from injury fully healthy, or think this "injury" is a bit too convenient following his steroid admission, fine. But if you think A-Rod is still going to be productive, he shouldn't last past the top 10.

The shine is officially off Clay Buchholz and Phillip Hughes.
Remember last year when these two were going to be the Next Big Things, destined to face off against each other in dozens of Instant Classic pitching duels over the next decade? This year, they were both taken in the 17th round, Hughes at 194 and Buchholz at 199. It's honestly tough to recommend either of them too much, since they both have to wait for an injury before getting a shot at the rotation. But with A.J. Burnett and Joba Chamberlain in the Yankees rotation, and Brad Penny in Boston, they'll both get their chances soon enough.

NL-only Lessons

Closers are not to be trusted.
As opposed to the AL-only version where Brian Fuentes was the fifth closer taken, at pick 52, Francisco Rodriguez was the first off the board in the NL-only league, also at pick 52. In all, seven closers were taken in the first 100 picks in the AL league, while only four in the NL. The lesson is simple: The AL league has more consistent closers worth a high pick; if there's a run on them early, you better got on board quickly or be prepared to forfeit the category. In NL leagues, feel free to wait awhile and gamble late.

Stephen Drew can no longer be considered a sleeper.
This is kind of disappointing from a personal standpoint, as I was hoping to use a middle-round pick on Drew, who I expect to have a stellar year. Instead, he went 38th overall. You can partially blame this on the fact that shortstops are the stars of the NL league this year (the Powerful Triumvirate of Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins were all taken in the top seven picks), meaning the position is shallow right off the bat, forcing owners into action more quickly than in the AL league. However, what makes it more disconcerting is that he was taken before Troy Tulowitzki, J.J. Hardy and Miguel Tejada, players I was hoping owners would choose in front of Drew based on their star power.

The price of pitching is way down.
This was shown by ESPN fantasy force Tristan Cockroft who drafted Tim Lincecum in the first round but then didn't take another pitcher until Carlos Villanueva in the 15th. What he illustrated is that pitching in the NL is crazy-deep this year. Here's just a few starters available after the 15th round: Todd Wellemeyer, Kyle Lohse, Randy Wolf, Sean Marshall, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer, Anibal Sanchez, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm, Braden Looper, Jon Garland. No doubt none of them are world-beaters, but all can readily fill out a roster.

When a player speaks, somebody listens.
Days after Matt Kemp told reporters he's capable of putting up a 40-40 season, he was taken with the 20th overall pick in our draft, the seventh outfielder drafted. While Kemp's "projection" might be a bit out of reach—his current season highs are 18 HRs and 35 SBs—if a few of his 38 doubles from last year turn into home runs, he certainly has the talent to take the leap to a 30-40 year.

Print Article . Email Article. Subscribe to The Magazine