Follow The Clues

The philosophers Salt-N-Pepa once wisely declared, "Let's get this party started--Let's get this party started right"

Indeed, let's.

Welcome to your 2007 Fantasy Guide, a glorious product of the new partnership between The Magazine and the ESPN.com fantasy team. I, The Talented Mr. Roto, would like to congratulate you on not being a moron. You see, fantasy is all about decisions, and you've made a wise one by picking up this preview. You now have about a million more calls to make, starting with whom to draft, trade, drop, start and bench. And just how much do you bid on Dice-K?

Lucky for you, ESPN is here to help all season long, starting with this guide and extending to free online updates throughout spring training, featuring longer versions of some of the stories you see here, expanded player profiles and exclusive bonus pieces. Just go to the main fantasy page on ESPN.com and sign up for the Draft Kit. For the freeness to kick in, you'll have to answer a question to prove that you own this guide, so make sure you keep it by your side.

No, you don't need us to tell you that Hanley is the fast Ramírez and Manny is the crazy one. But how we can help is by shedding light on the bigger mysteries of fantasy life, from the new (the Coors Field humidor effect) to the perennial (where to find cheap steals and saves). Oh, and this one: What the heck did Jennie Finch do in a former life to deserve getting stuck with me (see our position openers)?

So dig in. Good luck in your drafts and auctions this year, and may all your setup guys become closers.

Alfonso Soriano And The Legend Of The Contract Year

By Pete Becker

He has to make you nervous. Not that Alfonso Soriano will be putrid or anything, but in Year 1 of his new gonzo contract, you can't like the odds of his returning to his 2006 heights. Because if we know anything about what motivates big leaguers, it's that they play for the contract, right?

Maybe not. One of the challenges of tackling this contract-year myth is the relatively shallow sample size: We want to scrutinize only veteran players coming off multiyear contracts or guys heading into their first year of free agency who were then signed to multiyear contracts. (Players living contract-to-contract, year-to-year, do not interest us here.) In the past two seasons, there have been only 19 hitters and 15 pitchers of fantasy relevance who meet our contract requirements.

Let's look at the hitters first. Collectively, our 19-player sample went for an .809 OPS in the precontract year, .828 during the contract year and .796 in the postcontract year. However, eliminate Adrián "Outlier" Beltre and his staggering 2004 season, and those numbers tighten to .814/.817/.799, which is cause for pause, perhaps, but hardly a harbinger of some huge letdown. Moreover, eight of the 19 hitters actually saw their OPS rise in their postcontract year, so it's not like there's a universal effect. Put another way: Good luck playing those odds.

On the mound, the data undermine the contract-year myth more dramatically. Using WHIP and K/9 as our key indicators, we find that WHIP climbs both in contract years and in postcontract years (1.18/1.20/1.22) while K rates actually dip on the same slope (7.64/7.51/7.48). Our major outlier here is Carl Pavano, but eliminating him cures only the postcontract blues (1.18/1.20/1.20 and 7.76/7.65/7.65).

Look, there are plenty of things you need to worry about as you draft, but the contract-year bugaboo isn't one of them. Rather than ignore it, though, perpetuate it-by "warning" your rivals of the guys who just signed fat deals (Carlos Lee, Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt) and overhyping the guys playing for the big contract this year (see box at right). After all, the more heads you can twist, the more bargains there are for you. Soriano included.

The Secret Of The Shadows

By Ron Shandler, Baseballhq.com

If you owned Hanley Ramírez or Jonathan Papelbon in 2006—by luck or design—odds are you took home a title or came pretty darn close. But while luck is hard to repeat, good draft design pays off in late-round steals year after sweet year. It helps to focus on four categories of players.

1. SECOND-STRING GOLD Many players who've apparently won full-time jobs are poor bets to hold onto them, because they're either injury-prone or on a short string. So the guys next in line become intriguing possibilities. If White Sox OF Scott Podsednik doesn't recover quickly from his groin surgery, Rob Mackowiak could see additional ABs. If Toronto OF Reed Johnson can't repeat his success of 2006, Adam Lind might get an early recall. If Dodgers C Russell Martin endures a sophomore slump, Mike Lieberthal could give you middraft production for an end-game pick.

2. DL DYNAMOS Many owners will discount guys like Morgan Ensberg, Coco Crisp, Derrek Lee and John Patterson due to their lost 2006 seasons. Likewise, Pedro Martínez will be had on the cheap with his 2007 return date in question. But these are exactly the players whose upsides could yield big profits.

3. UNDERCOVER OPERATORS Guys with poor AVGs or ERAs are often just victims of bad luck. Many will dismiss Milwaukee's Dave Bush based on his 4.41 ERA, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.36 means he's ready to take a major step forward. Baltimore's Aubrey Huff seems to have lost his ability to hit for average and power, but his highcontact stroke says he's primed for a rebound.

4. POSTHYPE PROSPECTS A pair of Jeremys—Hermida and Reed—are dropping deep in many early mock drafts. Why? We want immediate gratification, and these two are simply taking their own sweet time to shine. How dare they! But show a little love and patience and you'll be rewarded handsomely, perhaps even this season.

Broken Trail

By Will Carroll

So you've finally learned your lesson and you plan to stop drafting Kerry Wood. That leaves just the rest of the league to worry about. Here are all the warning signs you need to swerve the DL.

JASON VARITEK, C, BOS A cartilage tear cost him a month last year. Aging catchers and knee issues is a bad mix.

ARAMIS RAMÍREZ, 3B, CHC Chronic quad and groin problems are, well, problems. So's his weight. Now that he's got a fat new deal, he might feel a pull.

CHIPPER JONES, 3B, ATL The best Braves bat since Dale Murphy could suffer the same steep decline if his feet don't improve.

VLAD GUERRERO, OF, LAA Chronic back trouble makes him run like your gramps. Could be a DH soon.

PEDRO MARTÍNEZ, SP, NYM He'll never be Pedro again, but he can still help the Mets, especially if he returns by July. He's come back from shoulder issues before.

JOHN SMOLTZ, SP, ATL
Like Pedro, he did everything he could to stay effective last season, which could lead to more shoulder problems.

FÉLIX HERNANDEZ, SP, SEA
Supreme talent, violent mechanics. He could be the next Johan Santana—or Francisco Liriano.

JUSTIN VERLANDER, SP, DET
Mark Prior circa 2004? A big increase in IPs and a deep playoff run raise red flags.

ANDY PETTITTE, SP, NYY
Did Yanks fans notice he was hurt in two of his three years in Houston?

GIL MECHE, SP, KC
Got huge bucks despite a long history of injuries, including the dreaded labrum. As if the Royals weren't enough reason not to draft him.

BRAD PENNY, SP, LAD
Shoulder issues mean his days of dominance are over. Plus, he's got the Milano curse: No one has been as good after dating Alyssa. Seriously.

TOM GORDON, RP, PHI That curveball takes its toll. At 39, does he still have what it takes?

BRAD LIDGE, RP, HOU Psyche or elbow? Bet the latter: He's a Tommy John vet with violent mechanics and a cranking slider.

MARK PRIOR, SP, CHC He's reportedly healthy. No, really.

Curse Of The Low K Rate

By David Young

Chien-Ming Wang and Johan Santana each won 19 games in 2006, but the similarities end right there. Santana led the majors in strikeouts with 245 (9.44 K/9), while Wang recorded only 76 (3.14 K/9), tying him for 129th with Brett Tomko and Mark Redman, who won 19 games between them. In fact, omit an April start in which Wang notched 8 K's in 7 innings against the Twins, and his K/9 shrinks to a minuscule 2.90. So how did he nearly win 20 games?

First, Wang pitched for the right team: Yankees starters compiled 74 wins—second to Detroit's 75—with Wang accounting for 25.7% of those. On the Devil Rays or Royals, that same percentage would have netted him fewer than 10 W's, which would have turned Wang into, well, Tomko or Redman.

Second, without K's, Wang had to find other ways of limiting runs. All pitchers can control strikeouts, walks and home runs, but not whether a batted ball becomes a hit or an out. So if a guy can't whiff batters, he must keep his walks and homers down and hope that his teammates can turn batted balls into outs (measured by hit rate, or H%) and eliminate baserunners (measured by strand rate, or S%). For those stats in his control, Wang was strong. Among pitchers with 150 or more IPs, his 2.15 BB/9 ranked a respectable 21st, while he allowed the fewest homers (12). But he also benefited from an above-average ranking in both H% and S%, which means fortune smiled upon him. Plus, he had a groundout-to-airout ratio of 2.48, a number exceeded only by those fellow sinker ballers Brandon Webb and Derek Lowe among pitchers with 65 or more IPs. That means Derek Jeter and Robinson Canó deserve a good deal of credit for Wang's breakout season.

Maybe you think Wang belongs to a special class of pitchers who can thrive despite low K rates. Problem is, history doesn't provide many role models. In 1989, Baltimore's Jeff Ballard went 18—8 with a 2.59 K/9; the next year he was 2—11. Detroit's John Doherty in 1993 (14—11, 3.07 K/9) and Milwaukee's Ricky Bones in '93 (11—11, 2.78) and '94 (10—9, 3.01) both enjoyed some success with low K rates but then faded quickly. Perhaps the most successful starter in recent memory with a similarly low K rate was Giants lefty Kirk Rueter, who won between 13 and 16 games five times from 1997 to 2002, while his annual K/9 fluctuated between 3.36 and 5.43. When that rate consistently fell below 3.00, Rueter's career came to a quick close.

Wang lives right on that K/9 edge—a very dangerous edge. Do you really want to live on it too?

The Hunt For The Green Gem

The long view is overrated. When you draft rookies in nonkeeper leagues, you want the guys who'll help you win now. Thankfully, CHRISTOPHER HARRIS of ESPN's fantasy team gives us 2007's top first-year starters. Because, really, we're all day-to-day.

1. DAISUKE MATSUZAKA, SP, BOS Sure, there's risk involved. But Dice-K is the best rookie combo of established talent and opportunity. He's got No. 1 stuff, and at age 26, he's ready to win 15.

2. ALEX GORDON, 3B, KC Power, speed and plate discipline elevate the 23-year-old Gordon, whose 40-HR pop likely sends incumbent Mark Teahen to the outfield. David Wright, anyone?

3. DELMON YOUNG, OF, TB Is he forever doomed to be a poster child for entitled athletes? No, not forever. He's just 21 and has 40/40 potential. If he reels in his temper, he's a dominator.

4. MATT GARZA, SP, MIN A bit of a push (he started '06 in A-ball), but the Twins need him now. His mid-90s heat and excellent slider give him good upside. He's not an ace, though he can be a No. 2.

5. CHRIS B. YOUNG, OF, ARI He's the starting centerfielder and potential leadoff man in one of the best hitter's parks. Although his AVG is likely to hover around .270, he's got 20/20 written all over him.

6. KEI IGAWA, SP, NYY No, he's not the Dice Man, but this secondary Japanese import is guaranteed a rotation spot. He needs to be fine with his control, but if Jaret Wright could win 11 here, Igawa can too.

7. TROY TULOWITZKI, SS, COL Forget about that weak September cup of joe. He reestablished himself with a .329/.398/.468 performance in the Arizona Fall League. Just 22, he'll probably start at short.

8. KEVIN KOUZMANOFF, 3B, SD This 25-year-old banger could be good for 30 HRs, but be careful: He's injury-prone, and he has always been old for his level in the minors.

9. CHRIS IANNETTA, C, COL He's better than Yorvit Torrealba, but Iannetta won't be an elite fantasy catcher this season. He could be a good sleeper, though; he's got 15-HR potential and can hit .290.

10. AKINORI IWAMURA, 3B, TB On a roster crowded with "maybe" guys, he could fit in at second or third and hit well enough to play a lot. At 28, his adjustment period should be short.

11. JASON HIRSH, SP, COL Assuming the humidor is still plugged in, the 6'8", 250-pound Hirsh will do just fine. He'll make the rotation, and in the long run, he'll be far more dominant than Jason Jennings.

12. DUSTIN PEDROIA, 2B, BOS He needs to stroke grounders to be effective; in September, he swung for the fences too often. Gritty, gutty, fundamentally sound, he can hit .280 and score a lot of runs.

Conspiracy Of Youth

Heads up, keeper leaguers: Which of the top reallife "tools guys" have the best chance to help you win in 2008 and beyond? JIM CALLIS, co-editor of Baseball America's invaluable Prospect Handbook , plays lead upside inspector.

1. BRANDON WOOD, SS/3B, LAA Hammered 68 HRs in the minors the past two years, and his spring move from short to third opens his path to the majors. He'll advance as quickly as he can adjust.

2. PHILIP HUGHES, SP, NYY Despite his big league fastball and power curve, the Yanks are taking it slow with their prodigy. He'll probably spend most of '07 in the minors, as long as Carl Pavano is healthy. Hmm.

3. HOMER BAILEY, SP, CIN Touched 98 at the Futures Game and dominated Double-A in the second half. He's a lot better than projected starters Kyle Lohse and Kirk Saarloos, so he may force the issue.

4. JAY BRUCE, OF, CIN Outperformed Justin Upton, '05's No. 1 overall pick, in the Class-A Midwest League last year. He has exciting potential with the bat and may steal a few bases, too.

5. CAMERON MAYBIN, OF, DET A better athlete than Bruce, though a bit more raw at the plate. He'll push Curtis Granderson to an outfield corner spot in a couple of years.

6. JUSTIN UPTON, OF, ARI Hit only .263 with 12 HRs in his first pro season, but he was just 18 playing in a low A-league that favors pitchers. If he works harder, he has the tools to be the next Ken Griffey Jr.

7. ANDREW MILLER, SP, DET The consensus top prospect in the '06 draft, he nearly made the World Series roster. The Tigers have plenty of young arms, but they'll make room for him in late '07 or early '08.

8. EVAN LONGORIA, 3B, TB A force at the plate for Long Beach State, he hit .315 and reached Double-A in his pro debut. His 18 HRs in 62 games was a surprise; he could be a .300, 30-HR guy.

9. YOVANI GALLARDO, SP, MIL Enjoyed a breakout '06: first in the minors in K's (188 in 155 IPs) and third in ERA (1.86). A Double-A ace at 20, he'll soon join the front of the Brewers rotation.

10. ANDREW MCCUTCHEN, OF, PIT A former big-time Florida high school football prospect at wide receiver, he has plenty of speed—and at 20, he's developing power to go with it.

11. REID BRIGNAC, SS, TB Here's the guy who ensures B.J. Upton won't return to short. Brignac is capable of hitting .280 to .300 with 25-plus HRs, and he's no more than a year away.

12. BILLY BUTLER, OF, KC A career .344 hitter with 55 HRs in 314 games, he won a batting title in the Double-A Texas League (.331) last year at 20. The Royals are in no rush, but Butler is nearly ready to help.

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