Up In The Air Totally

This March seems even more mad than usual. So who will get to Atlanta? Our numbers don't lie

We want to believe, we really do. But we've been burned so times already. Five teams have held the top spot in the polls but none has been careful with our hearts. One old flame, Florida, was barely reliable enough to escape its own weakened conference. Just when UCLA had us thinking it was the one it faltered and then bowed out early in the Pac-10 tourney. Our current steady is Ohio State —it's been two weeks! But the difference is a problem. And don't get us started on our one-week stands with the Heels and Badgers. There have been 47 ranked teams this year—the most since 2002—and it's hard to fall for any of them. So let's keep emotion out of it. A clear-eyed look at the past five NCAA champs reveals that each one was built from the same stock: a relentless big, a garbage man, a fearless gunner, a penetrator and a stopper. (Okay, Syracuse didn't have all the pieces, but it did have Melo, and that counts for more.) We developed a scoring system based on those types, with the current players who best fill each role earning points for their squads. Because we couldn't ignore intangible factors that influence March runs, we also awarded or docked points for variables such as coaching experience, geography and armpit hair (read on, it will all make sense). After tabulating the results, we found ourselves staring at a pretty seductive Final Four (or five). It may not be exactly NASA-level math, but it sure beats following your heart.

Don't underestimate the value of a legit low-post threat who draws double-teams but still makes room to leave his mark

NICK FAZEKAS, F, NEVADA
Fazekas must feel as if he's in a time warp. For the third straight WAC season, he went for 20 and 10 and took home the conference's POY award. Nor has his draft projection—early second round—changed, which means his decision to return as a senior cost him a season of dough. On the plus side, his loss is Nevada's gain.

Fazekas has sticky C-Webb hands and crafty Kevin McHale post moves that are the envy of every big who wants to fill it up. But his demeanor is what makes him a guy you don't want to face. "The thing I like most about him is that he's a little nasty; he's got a dirty side to him," says New Mexico State coach Reggie Theus. "He's dirty enough to get what he wants."

And what he wants is just what Nevada needs. Fazekas' stellar stats might be comparable to those of previous seasons, but his game has taken a noticeable step forward. "He's really improved his ability to pass and make other people better," says Nevada coach Mark Fox. "The only thing you can do to defend him is be as physical as possible," says Theus. Most often, that means doubling him and leaving the Wolf Pack's other four starters with open looks. That's a choose-your-poison scenario, because those starters all happen to be hitting 38% or better from three. Clearly the Wolf Pack, who are 28—4, are making the most of their big's generosity.

As long as they keep winning, maybe he won't mind being suspended in time. NEVADA EARNS 5 POINTS

JULIAN WRIGHT, F, KANSAS
"He might be 6'8", but he plays like he's 6'11"," says Missouri assistant Matt Zimmerman of the Jayhawks soph. "He creates a lot of mismatch problems for defenses." It doesn't hurt that he's also incredibly athletic and a dexterous passer. "He plays both forward spots, so he can use his size against smaller guys and his quickness against bigger guys," says Kansas assistant Tim Jankovich. And that makes containing him a tall order. KANSAS EARNS 4 POINTS

ROY HIBBERT, C, GEORGETOWN
You can't learn size, but you can learn the game. And the 7'2", 278-pound junior finally has. During Big East play this season, he averaged 13.3 ppg and 2.19 bpg and set a conference record with an uncanny 71% FG. "He's gotten a lot better this year," says Marquette guard Wesley Matthews in a giant understatement. "He takes up so much space, it's difficult to find ways to maneuver around him." GEORGETOWN EARNS 3 POINTS

AARON GRAY, C, PITT
Talk about Gray's 14.1 scoring average. Rave about his 9.6 boards a game, third in the Big East. Slobber over his field goal percentage (56%). Yaaaawn! The seven-foot senior takes pride in the small stuff that makes him big-time. "There are a lot of things I do that people don't realize," he says. "I like to set screens and pass out of the double-team." And if there were an award for floor burns, "I'd probably lead the league," Gray says. "I do what it takes. The little things are the fun things." PITT EARNS 2 POINTS

ANY TEAM WITH A RELENTLESS BIG EARNS 1 POINT
CHEAT SHEET: USC (SURPRISING FROSH TAJ GIBSON) STANFORD (TWIN TOWERS BROOK AND ROBIN LOPEZ)

A college basketball game can get pretty messy. But a one-man cleanup crew can set it all straight.

Not coincidenally, Wright's best game ever was a low-water mark for Carolina. In a November loss to Gonzaga, Tyler Hansbrough was swarmed into a ninepoint effort, and the Heels misfired all day. But Wright hung an impossibly quiet 21 and 13. "You look up, and he's got a double-double," Zags coach Mark Few said afterward. "I don't know how you account for that."

It's the compliment you want your complementary player to get. Props and passes should go to the go-to guy. Let the garbage man get his without ruffling the flow of the offense. It's an especially important role in the Heels' system, where plays often start (and sometimes end) with an entry pass to Hansbrough. Another set of post-up plays for Wright would bog down the O.

Instead, he put up his ACC ROY numbers by converting when set plays went awry. He erases a lot of missteps with that 88-inch wingspan and 37-inch vert; when Hansbrough misses, Wright barely has to rise for putbacks. "I don't have to be as accurate when I'm throwing to him as when I'm throwing to Tyler," says teammate Ty Lawson. "If it's anywhere from the top of the box to the rim, he's gonna catch it."

Not that Wright doesn't have some moves, too. "There are so many ways he can score; it isn't just because he doesn't have to jump," says Lawson. "PeopIe say that, but I don't think it's fair,". No what's unfair—to opponents, anyway—is Wright's jump hook. And an improving 15-footer has Wright converti nces. That's hardly a load of junk. UNC EARNS 5 points

AL HORFORD, F/C, FLO
Horford rolls his eyes when he talks about being l abeled a garbage man. "I think I'm a little more versatile than that," he says. "But as long as what I do helps my team, I don't care what you call me."The junior was third in the SEC in rebounding (9.1 pg) and first in field goal percentage (61%). "He's so much more than a garbage man," confirms UCLA's Arron Afflalo. "He's big and strong, and scores with his back to the basket. He doesn't get enough credit." Afflalo should know. Horford p h the UCLA D in last season's NCAA Final. FLORIDA EARNS 4 points

JOEY DORSEY, F, MEMPHIS
Dorsey thinks he belongs in our stopper category but is willing to concede to being more of a generalist. "Whatever it takes to get the job done, I'm doing it," Dorsey says. "People say that because it sounds good, but I really mean it."The junior leads C-USA in rebounds (9.6 pg) and is second in blocks (2.3 pg). On the floor level, he leads the Tigers in dives and saves. Opponents can't figure out how he does it. "I don't know," says Tulsa forward Jamel McLean. "Dude's just always in the right place at the right time." MEMPHIS EARNS 3 POINTS

DAVEN HARMELING, F, WASHINGTON STATE
Despite averaging only 9 ppg and 3 rpg this season, Harmeling is one of only three players to be named Pac-10 Player of the Week twice. Credit his ability to fill the stat sheet when it matters. In Washington State's first-ever sweep of the Arizona schools, Harmeling averaged 17.2 ppg on 53% shooting. "That guy can do a lot of things to beat you," says UCLA guard Darren Collison. "He's a real good shooter, rebounder and defender. A lot of people sleep on Harmeling." Keep your eyes peeled. WASHINGTON STATE EARNS 2 POINTS

ANY TEAM WITH A GARBAGE MAN EARNS 1 POINT
CHEAT SHEET: OREGON (PAC-10 BOARDS BEAST MAARTY LEUNEN) KANSAS (VERSATILE DARRELL ARTHUR)

These days in college hoops, a winning team has to have a guy who not only can rain threes but believes his next jumper is money even if the last one was a blank check.

LEE HUMPHREY, G, FLORIDA
Midway through last season, Humphrey hit a curb on his bicycle, flew over the handlebars and separated his left shoulder. From then on, "not if Hump's driving" was the running gag. Clearly his fellow Gators weren't serious: The team was happy to ride his outside shooting (six threes against South Alabama, 10 in the Final Four) all the way to the title.

Humphrey nailed an unfair 51% of his treys in SEC play. Credit his nightly personal shooting regimen: at least 25 threes from each of eight different spots on the floor. How much of a sure thing is he? Billy Donovan often breaks the huddle with a simple directive: "Dunks, layups and Lee Humphrey."

There are worse mantras. With bigs who can score or pass and guards who can shoot, the Gators average 16 apg, making their inside-outside game a nightmare for foes who are left scrambling, rotating to an open Hump. "Very often we're able to overcome dominant big guys by doubling down," says Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl. "But Florida does the best job of anybody I've ever coached against of making you pay for that."

Despite the Gators' losing three of four late in the season, Humphrey thinks they just need to get back to the ball movement that made them so deadly last March—and him so deadly every night. "When he shoots, I get ready to play defense," says teammate Corey Brewer. "If he misses, I'm like, Who moved the rim?"

No more joking: The Gators know they're not going anywhere without Hump. FLORIDA EARNS 5 POINTS

CHRIS LOFTON, G, TENNESSEE
Pick a hand, any hand. You can throw either of them in Chris Lofton's face when he's in the zone—it won't matter. "I can't miss when I'm feeling it," the junior guard says. He's really been feeling it lately: Lofton led the SEC in scoring (20.6 ppg) and has drained 93 treys on the season (42%), at least five in eight games. "Heck of a shooter," Kentucky assistant Reggie Hanson says simply. "When he gets going, he's very hard to stop." TENNESSEE EARNS 4 POINTS

DAEQUAN COOK, G, OHIO STATE
Out of high school, word was Daequan Cook was an "athletic slasher." Translation: He can't hit a jumper. This season, he's got leatherheads trotting out a new word: unconscious. The 6'5" freshman guard is averaging 10.7 ppg and is second among Buckeyes in total field goals, but he's also shooting 44.% from behind the arc. "Whether it's coming off screens or in transition he's really extended his range," says Michigan assistant Andrew Moore. "You have to make sure that even three or four steps beyond the threepoint line, you've still got a hand in his face." Here are two new words: Good luck. OHIO STATE EARNS 3 POINTS

MICHAEL JENKINS, G, WINTHROP
Jenkins wants his coaches to know it's all good. Let them gripe about his taking deep treys while wearing a defensive blanket; the 6'3" junior knows the bottom line: "It's still going in." And 43% of the time, he's right. Jenkins was second in the Big South in trifectas made (98), and while most shooters are most comfortable when they're a toenail beyond the line, the farther , N.C., native. "He's capable of making them from very deep," Texas A&M assistant Alvin Brooks says.
WINTHROP EARNS 2 POINTS

ANY TEAM WITH A FEARLESS GUNNER EARNS 1 POINT
CHEAT SHEET: TEXAS (STREAKY/DANGEROUS A.J. ABRAMS) NOTRE DAME (COLIN FALLS, IRISH CAREER LEADER IN THREES)

When these slashers push it down the lane, all opponents can do is cut their losses.

DARREN COLLISON, G, UCLA
He's gotta be the fastest man in college basketball. It doesn't matter what the stopwatch says: When you see him on TV, cartoon zoom lines follow him through the paint. You can't even talk about the guy without using modifiers like "speedy" or "gnatlike." In his first season as a Bruins starter, Collison (12.6 ppg, 6 apg, 2.3 rpg) has been much more than an adequate replacement for the methodical Jordan Farmar.Thisyear'smodelhas much more pop. "He's always slashing into the paint and creating stuff for us," says Arron Afflalo.

But what makes Collison the best penetrator in the game is his jumper more than his hustle. It may come as a surprise that Collison—surrounded by guns like Afflalo, Josh Shipp and Michael Roll—is the Bruins' best outside shooter (45% 3PT). Opponents respect the speed, but it's his consistent shot that opens things up for both him and the rest of the Bruins. "If you play off of him, give him any opening from three, he's going to knock it down," says coach Ben Howland. "If you get up on him, he just goes around you."What's more, Collison's quickness allows him to split traps easily, which makes pressing the Bruins a waste of time. Not much time, though. UCLA EARNS 5 POINTS

TY LAWSON, G, NORTH CAROLINA
Need a bucket? Lawson will get it for you, and pronto. "I swear, he takes three dribbles and he's down the court," Tennessee forward Duke Crews says. "You look up, and he's in the lane." Killer crossover hesitation yo-yo—he'll get it there any way you want it. And those 5.5 apg, third in the ACC, show he knows if he can't get the hoop himself, he'll find the guy who can. "He'd much rather get into the lane than shoot," says Boston College assistant Pat Duquette. "That should give opponents an advantage. But he's so good at it, he makes you pay." UNC EARNS 4 POINTS

JEFF GREEN, F, GEORGETOWN
When Green won the Big East POY award, he said he'd hoped the honor would go to teammate Roy Hibbert.That makes one of us. "He's the top player in our league and one of the top players in the country," says Marquette guard Wesley Matthews, ending any debate. The 6'9" junior swing guided Georgetown to the regular-season conference title by leading the team in scoring (14.3 ppg) and placing second in rebounds (6.1 pg) and assists (3.3 pg). But it's his ability to control the pace and get his teammates involved that makes him most valuable.
GEORGETOWN EARNS 3 POINTS

SEAN SINGLETARY, G, VIRGINIA
"We call him The Motor," UVa assistant Rob Lanier says of the six-foot junior. "When he gets going, he gets people on their heels." Against Arizona, the Cavs were down 19 in the first half before turned on the and - turned the around. "He's a great half-court penetrator and tough to defend," says Arizona associate head coach Jim Rosborough. "In the second half, Sean was just putting his head down and getting it done in the lane. He's one of the best we've played in the past three years." VIRGINIA EARNS 2 POINTS

ANY TEAM WITH A PENETRATOR EARNS 1 POINT
CHEAT SHEET: MARQUETTE (MR. FOOTWORK, DOMINIC JAMES) TEXAS (GRITTY PINBALL D.J. AUGUSTIN)

Whether he's clogging the lane, locking up a slasher or just lurking on the weak side, every team needs a guy who can shut 'em down when the game is on the line.

GREG ODEN, C, OHIO STATE
If he didn't have a bulldog's forehead or Gumby's wingspan, the 84 inches of Oden would still have challengers rethinking a trip to the rack. The combination, though, is downright menacing: The Buckeyes have given up almost eight fewer points per game since their big man's belated December debut. Think of what he could do with two good paws. What we do know is that long, imposing frontliners like, say, Marcus Camby have altered the course of previous Marches. The reason is obvious. "He makes you change shots," says Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan. "That brings your shooting percentage way down." Oden in the middle also allows OSU to play more aggressive perimeter D. No one is better at taking care of his teammates if they get beat. "Now that he's more confident in himself," says guard Mike Conley Jr., "we're all more confident in what we do."

With renewed swagger bolstering intuitive blocking skills, Oden has remapped the Buckeyes' fate. Since a January loss to Wisconsin, the superfrosh has logged eight games with four or more blocks, and OSU has gone undefeated in 17 straight. Before the run, opponents averaged 13.5 trips to the line; with Oden keeping foes out of the paint, the number has dropped to 10.1. In the Feb. 25 rematch against the Badgers, Oden picked up his usual four swats, and Wisconsin took just six free throws. "The more you try not to think about him," Badger Jason Chappell warns, "the more you think about him."

As if everyone weren't worried enough already. OHIO STATE EARNS 5 POINTS

JAMON GORDON AND ZABIAN DOWDELL, G'S, VA. TECH
VirginiaTech is dancing this year because of the sticky fingers of their senior backcourt. Gordon's 2.69 steals a game earned him the ACC Defensive POY award and coach Seth Greenberg's endorsement as "the heart of the team." But beating him off the dribble is only half the unwinnable battle. Dowdell finished right behind him with 2.16 steals per. "Zabian uses his long arms to take the ball before you even know what hit you," says Greenberg, "and then he's off in transition." Like any lockdown expert, Gordon and Dowdell think a good swipe is the best medicine. "Anytime you get a steal," says Dowdell, "it crushes the other team." VIRGINIA TECH EARNS 4 POINTS

JOAKIM NOAH, F/C, FLORIDA
Noah just loves that look, that "oh crap" look on a driver's face the moment he realizes that the dreaded Gator is waiting at the rim. "It makes me feel like I'm their daddy!" he says with a menacing laugh. With 60 blocks, he's grounded plenty of wannabe finishers. "If they kept an altered-shot stat, he'd lead the country," says 'mate Corey Brewer. That stat may not show in record books, but it's written all over opponents' faces.
FLORIDA EARNS 3 POINTS

TONY YOUNG, G, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
When will Tony Young's man fall? The Salukis have been placing bets on that before each game since the six-footer's freshman year. "He puts on so much heat that some guy goes down every game," says assistant Rodney Watson. Adds Evansville assistant Jason Zimmerman, who watched Young strip his team three times in an SIU win: "He's one of the best on-the-ball defenders I've ever coached against." Maybe too good. "His freshman year, we had a senior point, and we had to take Tony off him in practice," says Watson. "He was demoralizing the guy." SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARNS 2 POINTS

ANY TEAM WITH A STOPPER EARNS 1 POINT
CHEAT SHEET: ARKANSAS (SWATTER STEVEN HILL) VCU (SWIPER ERIC MAYNOR)

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