Prove It Or Lose It

Remember Syracuse's big win over St. Francis (N.Y.)? Unless you're wearing orange, you're lying. Even the sexiest fall matchup reveals only so much

It's all those hard-fought, dead-of-winter wins that tell us a team has what it takes to play deep into March. So ring out the silly season--and ring in conference play.

WRIGHT'S STUFF
As bulletin board material, it would be hard to beat the doctored newspaper photo that hangs at the Jaybowl bowling alley inside the Kansas Union. In the picture, Julian Wright, the Jayhawks' multitalented sophomore forward, attacks the basket with the ball in his massive right mitt. After a December offday during which Wright rolled for close to seven hours, his friends at the alley graffitied up the image, tagging the orange roundie Big Bully, the name of Julian's recently purchased bowling ball. Above his head they scribbled a question: "Why can't I shoot 200?!"

Granted, it's not a question that consumes the Allen Fieldhouse faithful. They see a 6'8" stud with a Magicmeets-KG game and a mouth that never stops, who starts the Jayhawks' break with a block and finishes it with a flush. And they hear what his teammates have to say. "If you're having a bad day, that's the guy you want to hang out with, because he definitely makes you feel better," says starting point Russell Robinson. So they want an answer to a question that reaches far beyond his ability to knock down pins. Because following two straight NCAA first-round upsets, not to mention a couple of messy early-season losses to Oral Roberts and DePaul, they know that their young team is about to enter this Big 12 season in need of … something. Coach Bill Self calls it a junkyard dog, the kind of player who won't let you lose or even have a bad practice. So Jayhawk Nation wants to know:

Can Julian Wright be that guy?

His coach sure thinks so. "He's one of the few guys who dominates a game while scoring eight points," Self says of his powerful big, who actually averages 12.3 (with 8.1 rebounds). Candid yet conscientious, Wright is definitely the most vocal Jayhawk. "Sometimes I think he talks in his sleep," says junior Darnell Jackson. Wright admits he gets a lot of "Shut ups" and "What you talkin' abouts" from teammates. But as his game continues to improve, he's more comfortable speaking his mind.

In late November, Wright initiated a players-only meeting after a shaky win over Ball State in the Las Vegas Invitational. KU was clearly struggling, and with No. 1 Florida on tap the next night, Wright took it upon himself to fire up the Jayhawks. "Coach had been telling us where we're at," he says. "I tried to tell them where we could be at."

JuJu backed up his speech with a then-career-high 21 points—plus 10 boards and three steals—while matched up against Joakim Noah and Al Horford. Self calls the 17-point first half from that game the best of Wright's career, maybe the best half anyone's ever played for him. "He was in attack mode every time he touched the ball, getting other guys shots, forcing help," says Self. "He did it every way imaginable." KU beat the Gators by two points in overtime.

That performance piqued the interest of scouts, who think the big man is an NBA star in training. Some go so far as to say Wright would be the No. 1 pick if the draft were held today. That doesn't change a thing; Wright has already announced that he's coming back for his junior season, intending to get his degree before he pursues employment in the league. Self says, "When I ask him who I should be recruiting, he says, 'No one at my position.' "

As for this season, Wright remains optimistic even after those early gutter balls. "Guys are aware this is a long process," he says. "The object is to be good by March." He is quick to point out that last season, KU rolled off 10 straight after starting 1—2 in the Big 12—a streak that began, not coincidentally, when Wright and fellow freshman Mario Chalmers broke into the starting lineup. And although it ended with an ugly road loss in Austin that had Longhorns fans chanting "Worse than Baylor," KU eventually tied Texas for the regularseason championship, then took them down in the conference tournament final. That game featured two huge dunks by Wright, including a YouTubequality 360.

And then came the second straight March meltdown. Wright thinks all that late-season success made the Jayhawks tight in the NCAAs. "All of a sudden, we were in the conversation," he says. "We weren't used to the expectations."

This year's team is surrounded by them. Problem is, they may not even be the second-best team in the conference. Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and a green but improving Texas squad are legit Top 25 teams, and Wright is impressed by archrival Missouri's fast start. Still, he feels a difference in this Jayhawks team.

"Last year was a sink-swim kind of thing," he says. "Now we know how to swim. We're not doing it yet, but we're going to sooner or later." In the pool, on the court and at the lanes, Wright knows there's always room to improve.

A few weeks ago, he bowled a 217.

-JOHN GUSTAFSON

W2W4 Feb. 10
Kansas at Missouri
Nothing says conference season like an age-old rivalry. Last winter, a horrific Tigers team (12-16) beat KU in OT at Mizzou Arena. The Tigers aren't the least bit horrific this time: they're off to a 10-2 start under new coach Mike Anderson.

The turning point for Washington hoops came in 2004, when the formerly irrelevant Huskies rallied to beat Oregon State in OT. The win enabled them to sidestep an 0-6 start to their Pac-10 season and put them on a run that propelled them to the NCAA Tournament. A loss to the Beavers, and a No. 1 seed in the next season's NCAAs never would have happened. A loss, and Nate Robinson and Brandon Roy don't become household names who get future players to notice Washington as a place to spend some time.

"When we won that game, we started to believe," coach Lorenzo Romar says. "Then the No. 1 seed cemented everything." The timing of the breakout couldn't have been better, coming just as the state was developing a bunch of talented preps, including current Husky pups Jon Brockman and Spencer Hawes. "The perception has changed," Romar admits. "We're getting more notoriety."

But fame is fleeting and fickle. Did you know that the Huskies swept last season's series against perennial Pac-10 power UCLA and split with Arizona? Or that the team has landed top recruiting classes for four years? Didn't think so. Neither do pundits, who are hesitant to put the Huskies on any national short list.

A few more big wins against ranked teams, like their Dec. 20 rout of LSU, will only help their Q rating, as would a conference run reminiscent of 2004's post-OSU tear. And after starting 0-2 in the Pac 10, they might need one.

"When you come from an area without national exposure, you have a chip on your shoulder," says Hawes, who is averaging 16.2 ppg and shooting 62% from the field. "It's our responsibility to keep the program on the radar and take it to the next level."

-ANDY KATZ

W2W4 Feb. 3
Washington at Arizona
A win in Tucson against a stacked Wildcats team with its own Pac-10 FOY candidate, forward Chase Budinger (16.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg), is just what the vet ordered for Hawes and a Huskies crew digging for a little respect.

Illinois coach Bruce Weber wasn't exactly celebrating after earning his 200th career win on Dec. 6 with a blowout of Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis. "I wish it had happened last week," he said, referring to a couple of previous come-from-ahead losses to Maryland and Arizona.

Weber entered this season with the best winning percentage in Big Ten history (84.8%) but without any of the prize recruits—Eric Gordon (Indiana), Derrick Rose (Memphis) and Julian Wright (Kansas)—he'd wooed to replace the five starters from his 2005 NCAA runner-up squad. And don't think Illini fans are about to let him slide on that either. One blogger quipped that Weber's newest list of recruits is "a class suited for Carbondale"—a not-so-subtle reference to the coach's former post at Southern Illinois.

The good news is that gunner Jamar Smith (ankle sprain) and stopper Brian Randle (groin surgery) are back. The bad news is that with the Big Ten schedule upon them, the Illini are still searching for an identity. "We've shown glimpses of being good," says Weber, "but we need to figure out who our go-to guys are." Well, at least he doesn't need stars to play his brand of lockup D.

Ready or not, it's time to compete with this season's conference powers, Ohio State and Wisconsin. The bar was set long before Weber arrived in Champaign. Now he has to jump it.

-ED McGREGOR

W2W4 Jan. 23
Indiana at Illinois
Nothing pulls a coach back from the brink of a disappointing season faster than a win against a hated rival. So Weber will be happy to welcome Kelvin Sampson—who snatched Indy prep star Gordon after he'd verbally committed to Illinois. "Indiana has never been one of my favorites," admits weber, who spent 18 years as a purdue assistant. "And they've added fuel to the fire."

1. A 2002 title to a 2006 NIT firstround flop is not the right path for a coach—in this case, Maryland's Gary Williams —looking to secure a legacy. The Terps' recent slump has overshadowed early wins against Michigan State and Illinois—and foreshadows a long ACC season.
2. Jeff Capel has his big-time shot at Oklahoma, but how much time does the 31-year-old have to prove he's worthy? A Jan. 22 win at rival Oklahoma State will buy him a little more, after an unimpressive 8-3 start.
3. West Virginia's fans still credit John Beilein for the team's recent magic. But it's not too late for them to decide that the real wizards were Kevin Pittsnogle and Mike Gansey. Ask them again, if the Mountaineers don't take advantage of a down year in the Big East.
4. Five early losses sure can make a Final Four run fade fast. Just ask Jim Larranaga. George Mason will need the CAA's automatic bid for a shot at a repeat run.
5. Before the 2005 season, Trent Johnson inherited a Stanford program that started 26-0 in 2004; it's been 46-32 since.

UConn fans have been hearing about A.J. Price's potential since he signed an LOI in November 2003. Sure, it's getting old, but since suffering from a serious brain condition that almost killed him and a serious lapse of judgment over other students' laptops, Price hasn't been on the floor enough to generate buzz about anything else.

So as the Big East kicks into gear, everyone—including Price himself—is curious to see how he handles his first taste of cutthroat conference play. "I've been given a second chance," Price says, "an opportunity to make it right."

And he's been living up to his original hype, making an underwhelming (for UConn) roster of teammates better and taking the ball to the rim when points are needed. During one early twogame stretch, the sophomore had 33 points, 14 assists—and no turnovers.

Now that Jim Calhoun has seen visions of the point guard he recruited, Price's minutes will only increase. Of course, so will the expectations that were tempered by his recent past. "I feel I've come a long way," Price says. He's got a long way left to go to keep this young UConn team competitive in the Big East. Marquette, Pittsburgh and Louisville in the opening two months of conference play is a quantum leap from a cushy early-season schedule that included Quinnipiac, St. Mary's and Coppin State.

-KEN DAVIS

W2W4 Jan. 10
Marquette at UConn
Price faces his stiffest point guard competition: Dominic James (17.0 ppg, 4.5 apg). Last season, the Golden Eagles handed the Huskies the first of their four losses, and James had seven points and seven assists.

Less than 24 hours after winning the NIT Season Tip-Off, Butler was already learning a tough lesson: With success comes scrutiny.

Nobody expected Butler to outlast the tourney field in New York—not even the Bulldogs themselves. Which is why the team had to hightail it back home to Indianapolis for a game the day after the final. And after taking care of then-No. 21 Tennessee and then-No. 23 Gonzaga, the Bulldogs needed two overtimes to take care of … Kent State. Skeptics ignored the hectic travel schedule and figured Butler couldn't hack the attention.

A month later, though, Butler is still comfortably settled in the top echelon of the RPI. "We've got the whole rest of the season ahead," says guard A.J. Graves, who scored 89 points in those four NIT games to earn MVP honors. "We've just got to keep moving forward."

That will be no easy cruise. The Horizon League has produced a fair share of recent March spoilers, with its teams winning five games in the past four NCAA Tourneys. And in the conference's preseason poll, the Bulldogs were picked to finish sixth, well behind favorites Loyola-Chicago and Wisconsin-Green Bay. Yet with trained eyes now watching, Butler barely broke a sweat against its first conference "challenger." Two weeks after his Cleveland State Vikings were routed 70-45, coach Gary Waters was still scratching his head: "It's hard to get them out of sync. They know what they're trying to do."

Despite suiting up no player taller than 6'7", the Bulldogs, with their physical D and unselfishness, are the type of team that traditional powers fear. At the same time, their overnight success has made them a target for fellow mids looking to make their own mark. Sixthyear coach Todd Lickliter is confident that his gritty Bulldogs, who are currently ranked 15th, will stay grounded. "It's human nature to relax," he says. "But I think we can demonstrate character as champions and continue to improve."

If his team gets much better, the Bulldogs, who didn't even nab an NCAA bid last season, will make at least one bracket pretty nervous in March. "I'm not embarrassed," says Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl about the Vols' November loss. "We got beat by a good basketball team."

A good team that stands up to inspection.

-MIKE OGLE

W2W4 Jan. 25
Butler at Loyola
Chicago
The Ramblers were picked to run away with the horizon, but the Bulldogs are stealing their limelight. If graves and point guard Mike Green can contain 6'7" preseason all-America guard Blake Schilb (15.1 ppg, 3.4 apg and 4.8 rpg), Butler could take them out on their home floor.

Don't waste time trying to explain the old Robert Burns line "The best-laid schemes of mice and men often go awry" to Alabama senior Jermareo Davidson. Before November, the perennial draft flirter finally thought he had a fail-safe plan: have a senior season that makes it impossible to be overlooked in the draft. That was before, in one tumultuous week, his brother was shot, and he and his girlfriend were in an accident that killed her.

Through it all, a rattled Davidson is sticking to the path he has laid out. "I've worked hard, and I'm here to make sure it pays off," he says. The hard work began in the off-season. For the first time since the 6'10" power forward arrived in Tuscaloosa, he stayed on campus to train. He first tested the draft waters as a sophomore and gave them another long look last spring. But at 200 pounds, he was too slight to be an NBA 4 and too inconsistent outside the lane to play anywhere else. So Davidson tacked on an extra 16 pounds, honed a jump-hook and extended his range to 17 feet. In July, he trotted out a new skill set at the Nike Camp in Indy, where he was a counselor, in scrimmages against LSU's Glen Davis. "I've been plotting on him since the first time I played him," says Davidson. "I shocked him a couple of times."

It was just as the season was starting that his brother Dewayne Watkins was shot, in Atlanta. Days later, after visiting Watkins at Grady Memorial Hospital, Davidson's girlfriend, Nikki Murphy, lost control of the SUV carrying her and Davidson. She was pronounced dead at the same hospital that housed his paralyzed brother. Almost immediately after the two tragedies, seven of Davidson's hardearned pounds slipped off. "You could see it," says coach Mark Gottfried. "The weight was one of the ways you knew it was all taking its toll."

Still, working through his grief has forced Davidson to refocus. He was back on the court the day after Murphy's funeral, and even played a game three days after his brother finally died. And he has been relentless (14.6 ppg, 9.8 rpg). When he withdrew from his first-semester classes before finals (he'd missed so many lectures while he mourned), he spent the extra time in the weight room to bulk back up. And teammates took to teasing "Coach Davidson" for jogging the sideline on pace with their plays when he wasn't officially allowed to practice.

Now he's regained his eligibility—the SEC was moved by the severity of the circumstances surrounding his withdrawal—and he's headed for rematches against the conference's marquee posts, Davis and Joakim Noah.

"With everything that's happened," says Davidson, "doing well against them is an urge now." It's all part of the plan, even if it's not the one he drew up.

-ELENA BERGERON

W2W4 Feb. 14
Alabama at Florida
Cupid himself couldn't have arranged a better hookup. Before last season, Florida had won the previous five meetings, but behind double-doubles from Davidson and Richard Hendrix, the unranked tide dropped the then-no. 12 Gators. Now both squads are in the top 10, so everybody has a chance to have a broken heart.

Meet Georgia Tech's two-headed phenom. There's Thaddeus Young, the 6'8" prep All-America who's strong enough to dominate inside, skilled enough to nail threes and quick enough to finish the break with the Suns. Then there's Young Thaddeus, a freshman who's still figuring it all out. His handle is too lefty, his frame and D too skinny and his shot selection too throttled by a need to fit in with his new teammates.

Both players have figured heavily in the Yellow Jackets' bungee jump of a season—a 5—0 start that dived to 6—3 and came back up with four straight wins. Take the game against Vanderbilt on Dec. 9. Thaddeus Young controlled the game early, shooting 7-for-10 from the field and scoring 15 points by the midway point of the second half. Then Young Thaddeus rushed a three, got beat backdoor for a dunk, missed another open three, traveled and didn't even leave his feet as another Commodore drained a trey over him. Despite Young's 19 points and 10 boards, Tech lost its 13th straight road game and a spot in the Top 25.

Young is moving forward, though. He went for 21 points in 23 minutes in a rout of Centenary, which prompted coach Paul Hewitt to opine that he saw the fog clearing around his budding star. "He's starting to find his spots on the perimeter," Hewitt said after the game. "He made shots tonight regardless of where the opponent was. The guy can play."

Of course he can. But can he play at a consistently high level in the brutal ACC? For these Jackets, the conference schedule will be even more Darwinian than usual. Up to now, Hewitt has allowed nearly everyone on Tech's deep roster to play significant minutes, including freshman Javaris Crittenton, who has regularly outshone his touted classmate. But after the Centenary game, Hewitt said, "Guys who have watched us play, NBA scouts and coaches I trust, say my guys are too comfortable." That problem is about to take care of itself. Once the ACC battles begin, Hewitt won't be able to be nearly as liberal with his rotation. Of course, Thaddeus Young needs to stay off the bench if he intends to live up to his hype. Guess it's time, then, for Young Thaddeus to take a seat.

-LUKE CYPHERS

W2W4 Jan. 24
Georgia Tech at Maryland
Young and his unripe teammates dive headfirst into the ACC deep end with games against a trio of ranked foes: Clemson, Duke and UNC. The Jackets could easily lose all three games, making this midseason conference game against the Terps a final stand. Although both Tech and Maryland have nuzzled the cusp of the top 25, a loss here could send one of them straight to the at-large bubble.

Last season, John Thompson III brought respect back to his dad's program by riding another Hoya center into the Sweet 16. So it wasn't a big surprise when this year's squad cracked every preseason top 10 or that giant star Roy Hibbert—who got 11.6 points and 6.9 boards per game as a sophomore—was listed among the country's best big men. But while the 7'2" center's numbers have mirrored last year's (11.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg), the Hoyas' results have not. Georgetown has one more loss than it did at the same time last season and has yet to earn a win
against a ranked team.

What gives? Good teams figured out that Hibbert isn't the force many pollsters predicted he'd be. Since defenses started to pay more attention to him in the half-court, he's had trouble getting position. Plus, he's consistently overmatched by more athletic bigs. In Georgetown's November loss to Oregon, 6'9" Maarty Leunen ran Hibbert all over the court while holding him to four points.

Clearly, the Hoyas need to change their game plan. Every conference foe has a weapon to counter Hibbert (Juan Palacios at Louisville, Hasheem Thabeet and Jeff Adrien at UConn, Will Sheridan at Villanova … the list goes on). Yet Thompson continues to revolve the offense around him. The coach would be better off switching from his Princeton-style offense and setting plays for forward Jeff Green, who has been the Hoyas' best overall player (11.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.5 apg). Junior guard Jonathan Wallace can easily work off Hibbert's screens to give Green room to move. Shifting the focus to a different first option is Georgetown's best chance to prove it deserves that preseason hype.

-DOUG GOTTLIEB

W2W4 Jan. 13
Georgetown at Pittsburgh
The Hoyas' fastest route back is through the Big East's top cats, Pitt. But Aaron Gray (15.6 ppg, 10.9 rpg) is one more tree in the way of Hibbert & Co. Thompson could take a lesson from the way coach Jamie Dixon uses his shorter, tougher Panthers to protect the softer, stiffer gray.P

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