Originally Published: March 21, 2007

Noticing the trends after three weeks of games

Some trends -- like bigger receivers and better fullbacks -- are emerging after a few weeks, writes Gary Horton.

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Horton By Gary Horton
Scouts Inc.
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Although the Arena Football League is considered a passing league, there are several teams running the ball a lot this season and with good success. In Week 3, powerhouse teams Dallas and Orlando each ran the ball 18 times -- and both won -- and Nashville beat Utah with a time-consuming run game that produced five rushing touchdowns.

In Week 1, Kansas City beat a superior Chicago team with the run game and now leads the league with 10 rushing touchdowns. And don't forget about Philadelphia, which can run the ball effectively seemingly at will.

With the free substitution rules, we have bigger and more physical offensive linemen that fit in red-zone jumbo packages. Conversely, defenses are stocked with smaller and more athletic upfield rushers, which doesn't always bode well against a power run game close to the goal line. Also, offenses are discovering that they can control the flow of the game and negate the more-explosive opposing offenses by running the football and keeping the other defense on the field.

Damian Harrell
Dale Zanine US PRESSWIREDamian Harrell and Colorado meet Dallas in a hug early season clash on Thursday.
• Week 4 features matchups between four glamour franchises and potentially an early look at the playoff race. Colorado at Philadelphia on Thursday (ESPN2, 7 p.m. ET) and Dallas at Orlando on Monday (ESPN2, 7 p.m. ET) involve arguably the four best teams in the league right now. The only dominant team missing is Georgia.

• Two teams with reputations as offensive juggernauts, Utah and Austin, are learning that in this league you must play some defense. The Blaze and the Wranglers usually get by winning high-scoring offensive shootouts. But when those offenses suffer a hiccup or an off day, neither has a defense that can compensate for it. It is no coincidence that the top three teams in the AFL -- Dallas, Philadelphia and Georgia -- all play sound and aggressive defensive schemes that create turnovers and big plays. If their offenses are not playing well, the defenses can take over and dictate the flow of the game.

• Will we see a trend in the AFL to feature more big and physical receivers? This is a league that always has preached quickness and the ability to separate from tight coverage, but teams like Philadelphia have gone big at wide receiver and that philosophy makes it tough for defensive backs to play any type of press coverages. It also creates defensive problems in the red zone in jump-ball situations. It is an interesting trend to watch, especially in a league where flat-out deep speed on the short field is not a huge factor.

• Chicago and Colorado are both 2-1, but you get the feeling that neither is playing up to its potential. Neither runs the football very well, neither pass offense is posting the expected numbers and neither seems to be playing with its typical mental toughness and sense of urgency. Are these veteran teams that know they will be in the playoffs and are simply having trouble playing at a high level every week? Or are they not quite as good as we anticipated? Or is this truly a league of parity? One thing we do know is that both Colorado and Chicago are better than the teams that beat them (Grand Rapids and Kansas City, respectively).

• Of the three winless teams through the first three weeks of the season -- New York, Tampa Bay and Arizona -- the one with the biggest hill to climb is New York. Tampa Bay and Arizona are established franchises with a lot of pride and excellent coaches. Plus Arizona has a proven quarterback in Sherdrick Bonner and still has a high-scoring offense. The Rattlers have a suspect defense, but against the weaker teams in this league, their offense will be able to carry them to wins. Tampa Bay lacks explosiveness, but Tim Marcum is a great coach and will figure out a way to win some games, possibly including one against New York at home this week.

New York is in the most trouble because the Dragons have no answer at quarterback and lack game-changing playmakers on either side of the ball. They do have quality receivers, but with QB Aaron Garcia out they don't have anyone who can get them the ball. You don't see much of a spark from the Dragons and those problems were evident even in the preseason.

• With the free substitution rules, we might be seeing a changing of the guard at the fullback position in the AFL. In the past, when players played both offense and defense, most fullbacks were really linebackers by trade. Now, a lot of those guys are staying on defense, which opens up the fullback position. A perfect example is in Dallas. Former two-way player Duke Pettijohn is concentrating on playing defense, which has opened the door for fullback Josh White, who leads the AFL with 98 yards rushing and six TDs.

Joe Germaine
K. Horner/AFL/WireImage.comJoe Germaine may be the best QB in the AFL before long.
• Who is the best quarterback in the AFL right now? Clint Dolezel (Dallas) and Chris Greisen (Georgia) are off to great starts. They rarely make a bad throw and both are leading undefeated teams. But my early-season favorite is Joe Germaine of Utah. He is not an AFL veteran, but he is picking up this game very quickly and is coached by one of the best in the business in Danny White. Germaine has all the physical skills and makes all the throws necessary to post huge numbers. In the next year or two, he could become the benchmark for the quarterback position in this league.

• Who is the best early passing duo in the AFL? Is it John Dutton to Damian Harrell (Colorado)? Dolezel to Marcus Nash (Dallas)? Matt D'Orazio to Bobby Sippio (Chicago)? Bonner to Randy Gatewood (Arizona)? Germaine to Siaha Burley (Utah)? Shaun King to Kevin Prentiss (Las Vegas)?

My favorite duo right now is Dolezel to Nash in Dallas. Both are veterans with a lot of pride. They are on the same page and know each other very well. With a great supporting cast, they only will improve.

Early season surprises: Philadelphia, Georgia, New Orleans

Early season disappointments: Tampa Bay, Arizona, Austin

Early season underachievers: Chicago, Colorado (but will get better)

Early season dominant teams: Dallas, Philadelphia, Georgia

Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com.