ESPN AFL

Sunday, April 1, 1:30 p.m. ET
ESPN2, ESPN360
After a slow start, both of these teams are picking up steam and starting to live up to what was expected of them in 2007. Los Angeles is coming off a a tough but surprisingly successful road trip that led to unexpected wins at Orlando and New Orleans. This team is playing with a lot of confidence right now. Chicago is winning, but not dominating teams like you would expect from the defending AFL champion.

Both teams have playmakers on both sides of the ball, and both defenses are capable of taking over a game. Los Angeles will not be intimidated by the loud Rush crowd and this game likely could be decided by which QB plays the cleanest game.

When Los Angeles has the ball
QB Sonny Cumbie has played close to perfect in the first month and he has yet to throw an interception. His decision making has been excellent and he has two quality receivers to go to in Kevin Ingram and Lenzie Jackson. He even has a running game that will keep the Chicago defense on its toes.

The key for Chicago is to put pressure on Cumbie. The Rush has an effective pass rush, led by DE E.J. Burt, and can rotate four solid pass rushers. But the Los Angeles line that seems to get better each week in pass protection, so this will be a battle to watch. The Chicago secondary is solid, but it is only as good as the pass rush. If Cumbie has time to throw, he will have good matchups and will put up a lot of points. If he is under a lot of pressure, he could force the ball into a secondary that will make plays and create turnovers.

The wild card for the Avengers is their run game with FB Lonnie Ford. Not only are they willing to run the ball (even outside of the red zone), but they face a Chicago run defense that has been surprisingly bad versus the run. It would not be surprising at all to see Los Angeles try to attack the interior of the Rush defense and establish a physical tone for the game.

When Chicago has the ball
As strange as it sounds, the Rush almost need to slow this game down and avoid getting into a high-scoring shootout versus a hot Los Angeles offense. They must be very efficient with their passing game and find another weapon besides WR Bobby Sippio. Chicago has two other quality receivers in Andy McCullough and Ahmad Merritt, and QB Matt D'Orazio needs to develop confidence in them. Chicago has improved its offensive consistency in the last couple of weeks but is still not overly explosive.

Los Angeles matches up well defensively against the Chicago passing game. First of all, the Avengers have a shutdown defensive back in Damen Wheeler, who likely will try to take Sippio out of the game. Their two other DBs, Arnold Parker and James Bethea, also have excellent range and cover skills. This secondary can play any style, including aggressive man-to-man or zone schemes, and are tough for opposing quarterbacks to attack because they don't know what to prepare for. It gets even tougher for Chicago if the pass rush pressures D'Orazio.

It would not be shocking to see the Rush try to run the football themselves to slow down the pace of the game. FB Bob McMillen is excellent but has been underused and could be effective versus a suspect Los Angeles run defense.

Los Angeles keys to success
• Cumbie must play a clean game: Chicago feasts on offenses that get sloppy. That's when the Rush defense creates turnovers and changes the complexion of the game. They have a deep pass-rush group, led by Burt, which leads to a good pass defense scheme. Cumbie has been almost perfect so far, but he cannot force the ball versus this defense.

• Matchup Wheeler on Sippio: Wheeler does a great job at jumping routes and breaking on the ball, and he can play man-to-man press or off schemes. He is also adept in zone coverages. If he can take Sippio out of the game, or at least frustrate him, it will really put a lot of pressure on D'Orazio, who doesn't have another offensive weapon that he really trusts.

• Build an early lead: The Avengers already have posted two tough road wins (Orlando and New Orleans) and are full of confidence right now. They know how to handle pressure. Playing in Chicago is a tough environment, but when the Avengers score early and force their opponent to play catch-up, they really seem to take off. If that happens, it could force the Rush into a sense of panic and cause them to make mistakes.

Chicago keys to success
• Stop the run: The Rush really have been hurt by physical offenses that commit to the run and the Avengers play just that style. They are not afraid to pound the ball with Ford. Even though Chicago is effective on the edges, the Rush are susceptible up the middle. The Rush need to make a couple of key defensive stops, and playing well in the red zone is critical versus an explosive Los Angeles offense.

• Be patient with the passing game: The Los Angeles defense has an excellent matchup secondary. They can play man-to-man or zone schemes, and they make it very difficult for receivers to get separation. D'Orazio must be patient, pick his spots and not force the ball to Sippio. He might have to resort to a short passing game without a lot of explosive plays.

• Tighten up kick return defense: The Rush are near the bottom of the league in kick return defense, and they gave up a big return for a touchdown last week versus Columbus. They definitely don't want to give the Avengers good field position, or even worse, let them score on special teams. Chicago needs to slow this game down and make Los Angeles work for every score.

Prediction
Winning at Orlando and New Orleans has given Los Angeles a huge boost of confidence, and that really diminishes the home field advantage for Chicago. Los Angeles' Cumbie has been near perfect so far, but he faces a Rush defense that can apply a lot of pressure and create turnovers. Both teams have excellent kickers, if it goes down to the wire, and both are used to handling the pressure of a tight game. If Los Angeles' Wheeler can have a big game covering Chicago's Sippio, it would take a lot of sting out of the Rush offense. Look for Cumbie to out-duel D'Orazio and look the Avengers' secondary to have a big game as Los Angeles upsets Chicago to wrap up a very successful three-game road trip.

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