ESPN AFL

Monday, April 30, 8:00 p.m. ET
ESPN2, ESPN360
Chicago (6-1) was rusty last week versus undermanned Grand Rapids before waking up in the third quarter and scoring 34 consecutive points. That's typical of a veteran group that seems to play to the level of its competition. The Rush now play a Philadelphia team that is reeling from three consecutive losses. The Soul has quarterback problems, and their once great pass-blocking front is starting to break down.

Philadelphia (4-3) has marginal confidence and very little explosiveness on offense, and needs the defense to make big plays. The Rush have all sorts of confidence and a great playmaker in WR Bobby Sippio. In front of a national audience on Monday night, they should play up to their capabilities. That is not a great scenario for the struggling Soul.

When Philadelphia has the ball
Veteran Arena League QB Clint Stoerner was signed last week to replace injured Tony Graziani. He had to start against Columbus with only 28 practice snaps during the week. He will face a veteran Chicago defense hat is starting to play well. The Rush created seven turnovers last week against Grand Rapids, which led to 42 points. They have an active defensive line that can rush the quarterback and arguably the best secondary in the league, with Jeremy Unertl, Jonathan Ordway and Dennison Robinson. All three do a great job of breaking on the ball.

This game is a big challenge for a good pass-blocking Soul line, but they quietly missed the blocking of FB Wes Ours last week and now are without OC Mike Mabry. With Stoerner holding the ball too long, the pass protection that once was a strength is now falling apart. You would expect the Soul to use a short passing game to negate the Chicago pass rush, but that will allow the defensive backs to come up and play tight press schemes, almost daring Stoerner to go deep.

The Soul could try to run the football more, but with their lack of explosiveness, they might not have that luxury. If Philadelphia doesn't do a better job of converting on third and fourth down -- it was terrible last week -- it will have an uphill battle to stay in this game.

When Chicago has the ball
Right now the combination of QB Matt D'Orazio and WR Bobby Sippio is almost unstoppable. Sippio has an amazing 32 touchdown catches on the season, and no defensive back in this league can cover him one on one. The Soul secondary has two rookie starters who have talent, but get caught out of position and turned the wrong way.

Chicago could start with a short passing game, with a lot of quick slants and comebacks, to force the Soul defensive backs to attack. That will allow the Rush to call some deep passes off double moves and pump fakes, which is where the Soul are vulnerable. As good as Philadelphia DB Eddie Moten is, he can be beaten by double moves, but Sippio must be able to get off the jam and separate from Moten.

D'Orazio will see mostly man-to-man coverages from the Soul, but his receivers must be physical to be successful. The Philadelphia defense is pressing and taking a lot of chances, because it knows the offense isn't going to score a lot of points. That leads to giving up too many big plays. If Moten can control Sippio, the Soul has a chance, but that's a tall order.

Philadelphia keys to success
• Stop D'Orazio-to-Sippio: This might be the most potent explosive tandem in the AFL right now, and the Rush doesn't even try to hide its intent to go to Sippio in every key situation. Philadelphia could try to cover him with DB Moten, who will try to get physical, but Sippio can be equally physical. The Soul likely will try to help Moten over the top in coverage, but that's hard to do in this league.

• Offensive cohesiveness and comfortable snap count: QB Stoerner has a different rhythm and cadence than Graziani, and the Soul must eliminate illegal procedure calls and confusion on routes. The Rush defense will eat them up if they aren't better.

• Be efficient versus the superb Chicago secondary: The Rush have an excellent trio of DBs who track the ball well and do an excellent job of jumping routes. The Soul cannot telegraph passes against this group, because the Rush DBs will make plays on the ball and turn an interception into a touchdown.

Chicago keys to success
• Play physical versus Philly receivers: With the exception of speedster Charles Pauley, the Soul receivers have size, are good in the red zone and know how to push off. But they are not great at separating from tight coverage. Chicago's DBs are excellent tacklers and close on the ball well . They might play some tight coverages to push the Soul receivers around and disrupt their timing.

• Make stops on third and fourth downs: The Rush are sound in their defensive schemes and really tighten up in big situations. Last week, they held Grand Rapids to 2 of 11 conversions on third and fourth downs. They know how to bring the pressure and create turnovers, and right now the Soul offense can't afford offensive mistakes.

• Find a weapon besides WR Sippio: He is so good you get the feeling the Rush are becoming too dependent on Sippio. It appears they simply don't have great trust in their other receiving weapons. But with two rookies starting in the Soul secondary, finding complementary receivers could mean also finding good one-on-one matchups.

Prediction
These are two of the most stable franchises on the AFL, with glamour players, excellent coaches and high-profile management and ownership. They also are very competitive, veteran teams who like to play a physical style. However, the mind-set for each team is drastically different.

Chicago is playing with tons of confidence, and Philadelphia is just trying to survive a tough first half of the season. Chicago can control this game on defense with its pass rush and outstanding secondary. The Soul are not going to score a lot of points against them.

The best chance for Philadelphia is to shut down WR Sippio and turn this into a low-scoring, defensive game. If Chicago is focused, which it should be in front of a national crowd, the Soul has an uphill battle. Philadelphia should right its ship in the second half of the season, when it has six of eight games at home, but it likely won't happen in this game.

Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com.