Destroyers will struggle to keep pace
Scouts Inc.'s Gary Horton takes an in-depth look at the National Conference Championship.
This is not the matchup that everybody expected to see. Columbus earned the right to play Georgia by pulling off the most shocking upset in recent AFL memory, beating Dallas in Dallas last week. Georgia seems to be the best team remaining in the playoffs as it easily disposed of Philadelphia to get to this game.
Both teams play underrated defense with excellent pass rushes, but the real difference here is the superior explosiveness of the Georgia passing game. Columbus will be hard-pressed to match that output and it faces a Force team that is undefeated at home and brimming with confidence. It is a huge uphill climb for the Destroyers.
When Columbus has the ball
The Destroyers do not have an overly explosive offensive attack, but they usually play with consistency and do a nice job of taking care of the football. Quarterback Matt Nagy does an excellent job of reading defenses and making good decisions, and now he gets to do it versus his former team, Georgia. The Destroyers are forced to rely too much on WR Damien Groce, who is basically a third of their offensive production. He is a tough matchup, but Georgia can try to push him around at the line of scrimmage, while getting some secondary help over the top if he escapes the jam. The only other viable option in the passing game is veteran David Saunders, but he won't require any exotic coverage schemes.
Look for Nagy to throw some underneath routes to Groce and let him run after the catch. That will require a strong tackling day by the Force defense, especially in space. Columbus might choose to run the football with FB Harold Wells to slow the game down and keep the more explosive Georgia offense off the field. Nagy must make smart decisions on third and fourth downs against a Force defense that held Philadelphia to three conversions in 10 attempts in that category last week. Columbus must pass protect well and give Nagy and his receivers time to make things happen in the passing game.
When Georgia has the ball
This is the most potent offense in the AFL with three quality receivers (Troy Bergeron, Chris Jackson and Derek Lee) who are all capable of big games. Georgia is a tough matchup for any defense, but Columbus can put a secondary on the field (Brandon Hefflin, Jerald Brown, and B.J. Barre) that will play hard and break on the ball well. The key is the Destroyers' pass rush, led by Ken Jones and Kelvin Kinney. When they get pressure off the edge, their secondary makes more game-changing plays.
If the Georgia offensive line pass protects well, it will give the team's receivers time to do what they do best -- use a lot of double moves on routes to force the Columbus DBs to bite. This is a difficult pass offense to defend because the Force receivers are so precise and disciplined in their routes. Look for Georgia to come out with a very aggressive passing attack to jump out to a quick lead and force Columbus to play catch-up. QB Chris Greisen will spread the ball to all of his receivers.
Columbus' keys to success
1. Survive an early Georgia scoring onslaught
The Force have the most explosive offense in the league and they score early and often with a very aggressive passing attack. Columbus must try to slow the game down in the first quarter and not get into a hole that they cannot escape.
2. Run the football
Columbus, one of the top rushing teams in the AFL, is not afraid to commit to the run. The Destroyers rushed 15 times versus Dallas and they have the ability to slow the game down and change the pace with Wells. Taking the ball out of Georgia's hands would be a huge plus for the Columbus offense.
3. Be creative with Groce
He is the Destroyers' ultimate big-play guy with 1,342 yards and 31 TDs. QB Nagy looks to Groce in critical situations and if Georgia shuts him down, the Columbus offense loses its explosiveness. Look for the coaches to move him around and use motion to get the right matchup.
Georgia's keys to success
1. Hit Columbus QB Matt Nagy
Georgia has the best sack unit in the AFL and its pressure is relentless. Nagy is a rhythm quarterback and making him uncomfortable in the pocket will disrupt the timing of the Destroyers' offense. His offensive line usually pass protects well, so this is an interesting matchup.
2. Play physical defense in secondary
The Force secondary is underrated and excellent at playing press schemes and disrupting receivers at the line of scrimmage. With a solid pass rush up front it allows the DBs to attack routes and take some chances. Look for Georgia to be especially physical with Groce.
3. Score early and don't turn the ball over
This coaching staff is very aggressive in their play-calling and they love to attack early and overwhelm defenses with their versatile passing game. When the Force take care of the football they are almost impossible to beat. Their goal will be to put Columbus into an early hole and break their confidence.
Prediction
It is shocking that Columbus has advanced this far in the playoffs, and after two big upset wins on the road the Destroyers come to Georgia with a lot of confidence. They don't dazzle you in any particular area, but they play consistently on both of the sides of the ball and their defense and pass rush is underrated. However, they go into Georgia and face a Force team that is undefeated at home with the most potent offense in the AFL. Columbus probably can't win a high-scoring shootout with Georgia and its best chance is to slow down the pace with a strong running attack and also make some key defensive stops. Georgia simply has too many weapons on offense and an underrated defense that will put a lot of pressure on Nagy. Georgia should control this game from the outset and earn a trip to the Arena Bowl in New Orleans.
Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com.
