The Soul tries to survive an injury while others try to survive the quick hook
When watching the film, Gary Horton noticed how quick hooks are becoming the norm, a guarantee is in danger of not being fulfilled and one team in particular is looking dangerous.
Last Man Standing: Episode 6
Looking back on a few things that caught our eyes as we head into Week 4.
How can good teams just not show up?
Two teams who looked ready to join the league's elite sleep walked in losses to inferior opponents on the road in Week 3. Tampa Bay couldn't stop the New Orleans offense and Los Angeles was embarrassed with a poor defensive effort at Georgia and showed no ability to stop the Force. Georgia manufactured four tackles for loss and two sacks making it two weeks in a row that the guys up front for the Avengers have not done their jobs. The Storm fumbled seven times versus the VooDoo (losing six), their QB was sacked four times, New Orleans had five tackles for loss and they just didn't play with any sense of urgency. These are good teams, but in this league you can't have very many off weeks because the competitive balance is so close. Teams need to win the games they are supposed to and these two teams did not.
Introducing Danny Wimprine
He is one of the true feel good stories of the 2008 season. He is a New Orleans native with limited professional football experience and now, with an injury to starting quarterback Steve Bellisari, Wimprine has his dream job. Through two games (both wins), he looks like the real deal. He's 49 of 84 for 615 yards and 14 TDs. He has yet to throw an interception and has a sparkling 121.7 QB rating. New Orleans is a good football town with excellent fans and might have found a guy that they can build this franchise around in Wimprine. However, the VooDoo's upcoming schedule is brutal. After playing 3-0 Cleveland at home on Friday, they visit Colorado and then play San Jose and Dallas. That stretch will show is Wimprine is as good as he's shown so far.
Will Philadelphia get through the next month?
With QB Tony Graziani out for several weeks with a knee injury, Matt D'Orazio takes over and the Soul have a challenge to remain an elite team until Graziani is back. They have a tough road game Thursday at Los Angeles with a short work week. Then they take on powerhouses Tampa Bay and San Jose in Weeks 5 and 7, respectively. They probably need to win two of those three games to keep pace in their division with Dallas, but that is why they signed D'Orazio in the offseason. He is much more accomplished than most backup AFL QBs and will run their explosive offense well. He's good enough to carry the Soul through this challenge and keep them among the league's best.
Role reversal in Orlando
We are so accustomed to seeing the Predators win with a very smart and efficient offense, and a defense that creates turnovers and big plays. In 2008, that is not happening and it may be the reason the Predators are struggling with a 1-2 record. Through three games, they are 16th in scoring defense and last in pass defense. Part of the problem is a secondary that lacks speed and explosiveness and their defensive backs are not good matchup defenders versus speed receivers. Plus, the pass rush that has not really developed yet. Offensively, they are second in pass offense and scoring offense and moving the ball has not been a problem. If they can just tinker with their defense and make two or three more stops a game, they can be competitive.
Look out for Chicago
The Rush are flying under the radar a little bit right now because of their Week 2 loss to Philadelphia as well as the fast starts by the Soul and Desperados, but they are about to become a very dangerous team. As the new players start to gel (especially QB Sherdrick Bonner and WR Damian Harrell), they should put up good offensive numbers, but the real key is their favorable schedule. They don't play Dallas until Week 17 at home and their toughest road trips may be at Tampa Bay and Cleveland. They will be favored in every home game until Dallas and this is a veteran team that will not have a lot of flat performances. The Rush will cruise through the easy Central Division and their biggest roadblock in the American Conference to getting to the Arena Bowl could be San Jose, a team they have already beaten.
Little help, please
Utah remains winless and look to be in real trouble, but you cannot blame their problems on QB Joe Germaine. He is playing at an extremely high level, throwing 20 TDs with only three interceptions and a 122.6 QB rating. The problem is on the defensive side of the ball, where the Blaze have given up 198 points in three games, which is last in the league. They are also 15th in pass defense. After a busy offseason, they were supposed to be much improved on defense, especially the upfront pass rush, but the results so far have been less than spectacular. This defense doesn't have to be great, but it must make two or three more defensive stops a game to be competitive. As good as Germaine is, he can't be asked to win every week by putting up over 60 points. Unless things change and Germaine and the offense gets some help from the defense, Utah is in for a long season.
The new Jack Linebacker rule
Most experts expected offensive scoring to be down in 2008 with the new rule that allows the Jack LB to play out of the box and get involved in coverages. While we are seeing more zone coverages and it's changing the defensive philosophy of a lot of teams, scoring is still up and we don't see the Jack LB taking over the games. Still, it is fun to watch the chess game between the QB and defensive coordinators in terms of coverages and where to attack the defense.
The guarantee in Arizona
Much has been published about the ownership of the Rattlers promising season ticket holders refunds if the team didn't make it to the payoffs -- a cost of almost $2 million -- but now that promise is starting to look shaky. Even though 12 of the 17 teams in the AFL make the playoffs, Arizona is in trouble. They face a tough schedule, inconsistency at QB, and shaky pass blocking. This team could be in a deep hole by midseason that would be tough to climb out of and that could lead not only to refunds, but also apathy among the fans. The Rattlers really needs to turn things around in the next month and get back on track because this has always been an excellent franchise.
Where is all the patience?
It seems like that in the past the AFL was a league that didn't have a lot of change, in regards to personnel, and coaches were very patient in developing players and letting them learn the indoor game. Now we seem to have coaches who have a quick hook on replacing players who are not performing up to expectations. Of the 17 AFL teams, six have already made quarterback changes (some due to injury), kickers are being replaced, and veteran players are being cut. Maybe it's the pressure on coaches because of high profile owners. Or maybe it's the increased media exposure and television coverage. But whatever the reason, the AFL is now a league that equates job security with production.
Gary Horton, a pro scout for Scouts Inc., has been a football talent evaluator for more than 30 years. He spent 10 years in the NFL and 10 years at the college level before launching a private scouting firm called The War Room.
