ESPN Mixed Martial Arts

If you wanted to be a wiseguy, you could make a crack at the expense of heavyweight Roy "Big Country" Nelson, who faces off with former UFC heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski in a featured bout on the EliteXC card topped by Kimbo Slice and Ken Shamrock on Saturday.

If you were safely out of range of the heavy-handed IFL refugee (maybe on an MMA message board) you could ask, "What kind of shape is Roy Nelson going to be in on Saturday?"

The wiseguy answer to that would be: "Roly Poly."

It's safe to say that Nelson will never be a supplement-using, carb-counting, six-pack boasting athlete. The 6-foot Las Vegas resident owned the IFL's heavyweight title belt when the league ceased operations, and has a 13-2 record since turning pro in April 2004.

Any foe who hadn't scouted Nelson and has made the mistake of judging him solely on the 270 pounds he packs on to his frame probably wished they had seen a tape or two of the fighter.

If they did, they would've seen a man who looks like many a Joe Sixpack manning barstools in taverns coast to coast, but they'd also see one who possesses a pair of heavy hands, a couple of nifty submission moves and more stamina than his physique suggests.

Can Big Country strike a blow for the two-thirds of American adults who are lugging extra junk in the trunk, and topple Arlovski (13-5) -- the same Arlovski who won the UFC crown when he beat Tim Sylvia at UFC 51 in February 2005?

Nelson says he can and he isn't fearful of bringing his XL frame out on a limb to advertise his confidence. His website, RoyNelson.com, features a top-10 list of who Nelson deems are the best heavyweights in MMA today. Arlovski is slotted at No. 8, three spots behind Nelson (a modest No. 5).

Nelson rates Fedor Emelianenko as the top dog in the heavyweight ranks, followed by Antonio Nogueira, Josh Barnett and Randy Couture.

Nelson explains his rating criteria.

"I put myself ahead of Arlovski for the pure fact that I bring a more complete package," says the 32-year-old striker. "He's great at what he does. He's a phenomenal striker, but lax at grappling."

So should we expect Nelson to yank the 29-year-old Arlovski to the mat and work for his fifth win via submission?

Analyst Frank Shamrock has seen plenty of both men; he thinks most of the action will take place standing up.

"It's a good stylistic match-up," says Shamrock (who'll be rooting for brother Ken against Slice, in hopes of a Shamrock vs. Shamrock collision down the road). "These [men] are pure strikers rather than finesse guys. Whoever controls the distance with the jab and changes levels will win. It's a wildcard fight, anyone could get clobbered. But this is Nelson's "Rocky" moment, he's got to believe it and go for it."

Both fighters are tied in with the Affliction MMA brand and have been "loaned" to EliteXC to round out the card. Elite XC head of operations Jeremy Lappen sees Arlovski as the clear favorite, but sees potential in Nelson, in his personality as much as his fighting skills.

Lappen pushed as hard or harder than anyone to bring in Slice, and he understands his organization has to find niches to capitalize on to stay funded and not go the way of the IFL.

If Nelson can upset Arlovski, his "Larry the Cable Guy" persona could find more followers.

"He's very charismatic," Lappen says. "He's beaten some good guys, but this is clearly his biggest test." Antoine Jaoude (KO win Dec. 2007) is the biggest name Nelson's tamed, while Arlovski has downed Tim Sylvia, Vladimir Matyushenko, Fabricio Werdum and Ben Rothwell, who beat Nelson. The edge in experience goes to Arlovski, and he's been sharpening his pugilism under the watch of Freddie Roach, one of boxing's upper-echelon coaches.

With that being said, will Nelson be coming into Saturday's bout slim, trim and ready to win, with his signature belly shrunken, perhaps shocking Arlovski and the crowd with a six pack?

Not likely, unless Nelson goes on the cut to surpass all cuts and sheds about 80 pounds over four days.

"My physique works for me," he says. "I consider myself like 75 percent of the Americans out there. I give 100 percent. And I like food."

With a win, Nelson hopes he'll be able to cut back on the personal MMA training and security work he does on the side.

"I'm looking for that big endorsement, like Taco Bell, Pizza Hut or McDonald's." he says. "Maybe after this fight, I'll do a cookbook."

Arlovski won't be as easily devoured as a Big Mac, however. No matter the outcome, you can be sure that a bunch of MMA fans will tune in on Saturday, watch Nelson stroll into the cage,and take an immediate liking to Big Country. They'll raise a toast with their beverage can, salute Nelson with a wave of their slice of pepperoni pizza -- hopefully not dripping grease on the carpet -- and think, "That could be me. That looks like me!"

Michael Woods, the managing editor of TheSweetScience.com, has written for ESPN The Magazine, GQ and The New York Observer.