Breaking down UFC 96 main card
Josh Hedges/Zuffa, LLC Maynard would do well to rely on his wrestling and avoid his jiu-jitsu against Miller.As the calendar draws closer and closer to UFC 96 "Jackson vs. Jardine" this Saturday at the Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio, the time has come for some prognostication of what's shaping up as another quality effort from Joe Silva & Co.
Besides the headline bout between Quinton Jackson and Keith Jardine and the title implications in play for "Rampage," the show also features Shane Carwin taking on Team Link's missing link, Gabriel Gonzaga, and Gray Maynard putting his undefeated mark on the line against one half of the flying Miller brothers.
Read on and get squared up on the knowledge.
Quinton Jackson vs. Keith Jardine
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson scouting report
Height/Weight: 6-foot-1/205 pounds
Age: 30
Hometown: Memphis, Tenn.
Fighting out of: Irvine, Calif.
Team: Wolfslair Academy
Record: 29-7
The breakdown: Once upon a time, the solution to any in-cage problem for Jackson was to slam his opponent and, if said foe still had a grip on consciousness after the fact, slam him again. Although a much-celebrated overhaul by former trainer and manager Juanito Ibarra revived Jackson's stagnating post-Pride Fighting Championships career, it seems that the high-impact slams of yesteryear have been replaced by a style that emphasizes orthodox boxing.
That will be a problem when Jackson tangles with Jardine, whose leg kicks are known for their limb-splitting potency. What's worse, Jackson has long been vulnerable to leg kicks, and opponents are starting to lock in on that weakness after Forrest Griffin made them the linchpin of his strategy against Jackson at UFC 86.
Jackson needs to follow the game plan his archrival, Wanderlei Silva, used to great effect against Jardine at UFC 84: Close the gap early, and go after Jardine's suspect chin.
The X factor: The mixed martial arts world saw Jackson go from dominant to dilapidated after Griffin turned his base to mush with a single leg kick at UFC 86. Unless Jackson comes out ready to check and counter Jardine's leg kicks, be on standby for a postfight fasting ritual and vehicular public relations nightmare for UFC president Dana White.
Keith "The Dean of Mean" Jardine scouting report
Height/weight: 6-2/205 pounds
Age: 32
Hometown: Butte, Mont.
Fighting out of: Albuquerque, N.M.
Team: Jackson's MMA
Record: 14-4-1
The breakdown: Figuring out Jardine is a difficult proposition. Although he has loaded his résumé with upset wins over the likes of Griffin and Chuck Liddell, he also has a 36-second knockout loss to Silva on his ledger. And try as he might, the memory of a 48-second KO loss to Houston Alexander just will not go away.
The lesson in both those losses is that Jardine is successful when he controls the tempo and distance in his bouts. Thanks to unimpressive hand speed and a porcelain chin, Jardine needs to use his powerful leg kicks to keep Jackson at bay and create a more stationary target for his looping but powerful punches.
Considering Jackson's best punches -- the hook and uppercut -- require close-quarters combat, Jardine needs to start this fight on his horse and draw Jackson toward him before unloading well-timed leg kicks.
The X factor: Jardine loves a good scrap, and that brawler's mentality has gotten him in trouble before. Typically, Jardine is at his best when he balances his aggressiveness with tactical precision. Striking that perfect balance while under fire from Jackson will be the biggest test of Jardine's Octagon career.
The bottom line: Take your pick. Either Jardine will give Jackson a case of Gumby legs or he'll end up doing the face-up Ickey shuffle courtesy of a "Rampage" knuckle buffet. Although Muay Thai remains Jackson's kryptonite until he proves otherwise, Jardine's defense is notoriously porous and his unorthodox striking means he needs time to establish his range and rhythm.
That's time he won't be afforded, as Jackson will use deft footwork to close the gap and force Jardine into the trenches, where "Rampage" will be victorious.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Carwin
Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga scouting report
Height/weight: 6-1/242 pounds
Age: 29
Hometown: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Fighting out of: Ludlow, Mass.
Team: Team Link
Record: 10-3
The breakdown: Unless one wears some sort of antibear battle suit, it's not a good idea to get into a game of fisticuffs with Carwin. If Gonzaga wants to regain his UFC mojo, he needs to focus on making better use of his top-tier jiu-jitsu game. Although Carwin's size and wrestling background make scoring a takedown unlikely, Gonzaga should have no problem pulling guard or goading Carwin into a takedown as long as he ditches the striking in favor of the clinch.
From there, Carwin's brute physicality will be no match for Gonzaga's hard-earned jiu-jitsu credentials. Gonzaga has to stay mindful of controlling Carwin's posture; even a brief ground-and-pound flurry from the Colorado man-beast will be enough to prove that old nugget about black belts only covering so much of one's rear.
The X factor: Typically, Gonzaga likes to find a rhythm on the feet, and though that strategy will always work against fighters like Josh Hendricks, the same approach cost him dearly against Fabricio Werdum at UFC 80. Going off in search of a stand-up war with Carwin might earn Gonzaga the UFC's Darwin Award.
Shane Carwin scouting report
Height/weight: 6-3/265 pounds
Age: 34
Hometown: Greeley, Colo.
Fighting out of: Denver
Team: T's KO/Jackson's MMA
Record: 10-0
The breakdown: What has worked best for Carwin thus far has been pounding out opponents, standing or on the mat. The second part of that strategy has to go out the window against Gonzaga, who would love nothing more than to turn another inexperienced wrestler into a living licorice twist.
Carwin needs to use his wrestling and strength advantage to bully Gonzaga as he pressures him with constant blows from close quarters. Gonzaga is surprisingly effective from a distance thanks to his leg kicks, but he struggles when opponents get too close for comfort.
The X factor: With just 10 fights' worth of professional experience -- and all of it against the heavyweight division's lesser talent -- it's anyone's guess how Carwin will react to a Scott Bakula-level quantum leap in competition. Carwin is used to being the boss come fight time, and how he adjusts to an actual struggle will go a long way toward determining how he fares.
The bottom line: For a guy with totally unproven jiu-jitsu, Carwin actually has the right style to beat Gonzaga. In the past, Gonzaga has always struggled when opponents muscle him around and force him to work harder than he wants. That's the exact strategy Carwin will use to announce his presence in the suddenly relevant UFC heavyweight division.
Gray "The Bully" Maynard scouting report
Height/weight: 5-8/155 pounds
Age: 29
Hometown: Las Vegas
Fighting out of: Las Vegas
Team: Xtreme Couture
Record: 6-0 (1 NC)
The breakdown: Arguably the premier product from Season 5 of "The Ultimate Fighter," Maynard has built his success on his Hughesesque combination of high-impact wrestling and suffocating top control. Employing both against Miller will be pivotal, as Miller's top game is a rare combination of wrestling wisdom and submission savvy.
Jiu-jitsu remains the great unknown for Maynard, and testing the limits of his game against Miller would likely end with one of his limbs matching his already mangled ears. A steady diet of takedowns and top control may not be the most scintillating of strategies, but neutralizing Miller's aggressiveness and offensive dynamism is the only way Maynard will knock the lightweight half of the Miller brothers off course.
The X factor: It seems as if Maynard's time at Xtreme Couture has led to his becoming a more conservative fighter who focuses more on takedowns and top control than on scoring points with actual damage. If Maynard starts accumulating referee restarts during this fight, it may only be a matter of time before Miller lands a takedown of his own and puts Maynard in a position in which playing it safe means tapping out.
Jim Miller scouting report
Height/weight: 5-8/155 pounds
Age: 25
Hometown: Sparta, N.J.
Fighting out of: Whippany, N.J.
Team: AMA Fight Club
Record: 13-1
The breakdown: Miller should see a counselor to make sure he's mentally ready to be outwrestled. Although Maynard is hardly the second coming of Cael Sanderson, he's impossibly strong and has the fundamentals to tie it all together. With that sobering reality in mind, Miller needs to channel C+C Music Factory and make Maynard sweat.
Stepping forward with strikes, keeping an active guard and making Maynard work for every takedown he gets should be the standing orders for Miller, who has the cardio and aggressiveness to make it work.
The X factor: Playing it safe will stick Miller with his first UFC loss, but he may get the same result if he goes all out. Forcing a hyperactive tempo while avoiding costly mental errors may be far from easy, but the alternative would leave him on the wrong end of a top-control special.
The bottom line: Miller is a good wrestler, but not good enough to stop Maynard from getting the better of him in that department. The real variable here is whether or not Miller's jiu-jitsu is good enough to force Maynard out of his usual ground-and-pound routine. Miller's hybrid wrestling and jiu-jitsu game is almost unstoppable when he has top position, but being stuck underneath Maynard for 15 minutes is a recipe for defeat.
Matt "The Hammer" Hamill scouting report
Height/weight: 6-1/205 pounds
Age: 32
Hometown: Loveland, Ohio
Fighting out of: Utica, N.Y.
Team: Team Renzo Gracie
Record: 5-2
The breakdown: In a mirror image fight in every sense of the phrase, Hamill will have to take on another converted wrestler who loves to maul. However, Hamill's dirty boxing and trench-war mentality give him a marked advantage on the feet against the still one-dimensional Munoz. Hamill needs to seize on that advantage by stuffing Munoz's inevitable takedown attempts and, more importantly, forcing him to step outside of his usual game and into a losing battle.
The X factor: While Joe Rogan jumps all over every opportunity to overstate Hamill's wrestling pedigree, Munoz is the far more accomplished collegiate competitor. How Hamill handles being in the cage with someone fully capable of taking him down will say a lot about just how much stock we should put in him from here on out.
Mark "The Philippine Wrecking Machine" Munoz scouting report
Height/weight: 6-0/205 pounds
Age: 31
Hometown: Yokosuka, Japan
Fighting out of: Sacramento, Calif.
Team: Ultimate Fitness
Record: 5-0
The breakdown: Awesome nickname aside, Munoz has an awful lot to prove considering that he's going from the scrap heap -- the World Extreme Cagefighting light heavyweight division -- to the mutant shark tank that is the UFC. Although the deck seems stacked against him, Munoz has a natural affinity for ground-and-pound that makes him dangerous against opponents who can't stop his shots. As long as he can turn into an irresistible takedown force come fight time, he has the game to make Hamill the first in a potentially long line of victims.
The X factor: Once a coddled prospect in the comfy confines of the WEC, Munoz now has to graduate to full-fledged contender if he wants to stick around in the UFC. How Munoz handles that pressure and the question of whether or not he's even ready for this match will be the best measure of his future in the fight game.
The bottom line: Munoz will give Hamill trouble if he puts him on his back. Whether Munoz can finish a quality opponent in his UFC debut is another question. Expect Hamill to win a rough one by stopping most of Munoz's takedowns and forcing him to play a striking game that Munoz is just beginning to learn.
Pete Sell vs. Matt Brown
Pete "Drago" Sell scouting report
Height/weight: 5-11/170 pounds
Age: 26
Hometown: Bayshore, N.Y.
Fighting out of: Westbury, N.Y.
Team: Serra Jiu-Jitsu
Record: 8-4
The breakdown: Seems no one has a clue why this fight is on the main card. However, it does represent a chance for Sell to rediscover the mojo he has lost since he pulled out that miracle guillotine choke and beat Phil Baroni at UFC 51. To that end, ditching the "Macho Man" Randy Savage routine and actually using his supposedly strong jiu-jitsu game against Brown will be critical. Staying disciplined and focusing on advancing position is basic for any jiu-jitsu fighter; whether or not Sell realizes that remains to be seen.
The X factor: It's no secret that Sell fancies himself as the Long Island, N.Y., incarnation of Rocky Balboa, and that fantasy has gotten him knocked out on more than one occasion. When Sell fights with his head, he becomes a much better competitor. Unfortunately, he often lets opponents use his head for target practice instead.
Matt "The Immortal" Brown scouting report
Height/weight: 6-0/170 pounds
Age: 28
Hometown: Xenia, Ohio
Fighting out of: Cincinnati
Team: Team Jorge Gurgel
Record: 8-7
The breakdown: This fight boils down to Brown's ability to lure Sell into a losing battle. Turning that brawling mindset against "Drago" needs to revolve around Brown seizing takedown opportunities, staying behind a jab and landing counterpunches whenever Sell gets too bold. Staying out of the fistic spectacle Sell craves may not win Brown many fans, but it could earn him a comfortable victory.
The X factor: Brown will suffer from a distinct size disadvantage, as Sell was once a healthy-sized middleweight who now makes the cut to 170 pounds. Keeping that handicap from defining the fight will be the biggest problem Brown has to negotiate against Sell.
The bottom line: All things considered, Sell has shown some maturation of late, and his bout with Josh Burkman at UFC 90 proved he can be quite effective when he stays composed. Look for more of the same, as Brown fails to match up against Sell's punching power and jiu-jitsu.
Tomas Rios is a contributor to Sherdog.com.
