Breaking down the Strikeforce card
Getting To Know Brett Rogers
Strikeforce and M-1 Global stare down the UFC and draw a line in the sand Saturday as heavyweight kingpin Fedor Emelianenko anchors the promotions' CBS debut from the Sears Centre Arena in Hoffman Estates, Ill. In making such a stand, it helps to have the most indestructible Russian since Rasputin on your side, along with an opponent who looks like a mutated version of Mr. T.
Besides the must-see intrigue that comes with Emelianenko stepping into a cage against Brett Rogers, the night will see Strikeforce crown a middleweight champion when jiu-jitsu demigod Jake Shields takes on Jason "Mayhem" Miller. And although light heavyweight champion Gegard Mousasi won't put his strap on the line in his bout with Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, anytime guys nicknamed "The Dreamcatcher" and "The African Assassin" fight, we owe it to ourselves to watch.
Fedor Emelianenko versus Brett Rogers
The breakdown: More than six years into his reign as the T-1000 of the heavyweight class, Emelianenko faces a familiar challenge in Rogers: a ginormous brawler blessed with the punching power needed to starch a cyborg emperor. However, putting fist to face appears to be the only threat Rogers poses to Emelianenko, who has a full toolbox of skills thanks to his legendary international Sambo career and the kind of ground-and-pound that can give the heartiest onlooker a migraine.
If anything works in Rogers' favor, it could be that Emelianenko seems to go along with whatever his opponent wants to do out of an almost reckless confidence that he can succeed in any situation. It has yet to cost him a fight, but it has gotten him in trouble before, and Rogers only needs one Emelianenko mistake and one punch to leave lots of bookies in tears.
Considering that both fighters rely on wide, looping punches, the openings will be there for them to play "Shatter the Skull." Of course, this assumes Emelianenko does not drag Rogers to the mat and dismantle him like a stack of Legos. Although no one has seen Rogers' ground game, it seems safe to assume that he won't do anything except tap out if Emelianenko pulls him into the deep end of the pool.
The X factor: Emelianenko has weaknesses, but his opponents always end up laid out before they get a chance to do anything beyond looking overmatched. Rogers has the ability to exploit Emelianenko's mediocre chin, but that means putting himself directly in the Russian's wheelhouse.
Rogers won't be afraid to collapse the pocket, but no heavyweight can walk through Emelianenko's punches. Taking a few of those shots will be the price of admission for Rogers.
The bottom line: Everyone from Andrei Arlovski to Semmy Schilt had a striker's chance against Emelianenko, and they all discovered why they were better off leaving the quiet, dead-eyed Russian alone. That lesson will be written across Rogers' face as well, when Emelianenko takes advantage of his aggressiveness and greets him with an overhand right midway through the opening round.
Strikeforce middleweight championship Jake Shields versus Jason "Mayhem" Miller
The breakdown: Thanks to Cung Le's Hollywood B-movie dreams, Shields and Miller now get the chance to settle up for the vacant middleweight title. The match itself essentially comes down to a case of two grapplers, with one (Shields) being markedly better than the other. Miller, however, has proven slick and even managed to keep his limbs and airways intact after 15 minutes on the mat with Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza.
By the same token, Miller was thoroughly dominated in that bout, and Shields presents the same problems as Jacare. A superior wrestler who remains vastly underappreciated as an elite jiu-jitsu technician, Shields suddenly has developed a mean streak after spending most of his career as an anthropomorphized blanket. That combination of suffocating top control and a newfound killer instinct will make life painfully difficult for Miller, whose appeal to the state commission for quality of entrance to be included in the judging criteria was denied.
The X factor: If you want to point to a weakness in Shields' game, historically it has been his conditioning. To be fair, Shields isn't the type of fighter who starts gasping for air halfway through introductions, but he does fade late in fights if his opponent can force him to work from the opening bell.
Miller has proven himself to be as active as any fighter in MMA, and he has become borderline impossible to stop thanks to his own masochistic love of punishment. Fighting someone who can smile through a dislocated elbow surely is an unsettling experience, and if Shields can't keep up with Miller, he'll discover he isn't the only grappler out there who likes twisting limbs and smashing faces.
The bottom line: This looks like a bad matchup for Miller. Worse yet, his army of Mayhem Monkeys won't be allowed to pull a Bobby Heenan and save him when the going gets rough. Nasty will be the adjective that best describes this fight, as Shields muscles down Miller early and batters him every step of the way. Sooner or later, the referee's compassion switch will flip and Miller's grill will live to bling again.
Tomas Rios is a contributor to Sherdog.com.
