Fantasy notes for April 14-15

Starting pitcher rankings for April 14

						2012 Spring Training			2011 Statistics
Rk	Team	Name	T	Opp	QR	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
1		Shaun Marcum	R	@ATL	8	0-0	0.00	0.67	13-7	3.54	1.16
2		Yu Darvish	R	@MIN	8	1-0	3.60	1.33	--	--	--
3		C.J. Wilson	L	@NYY	7	3-0	1.33	0.79	16-7	2.94	1.19
4		Vance Worley	R	NYM	8	1-3	4.50	1.45	11-3	3.01	1.23
5		Ted Lilly	L	SD	8	2-1	5.00	1.11	12-14	3.97	1.16
6		Jhoulys Chacin	R	ARI	6	1-2	4.84	1.57	11-14	3.62	1.31
7		Tommy Milone	L	@SEA	6	1-1	4.97	0.95	1-0	3.81	1.23
8		Gavin Floyd	R	DET	5	1-1	6.64	1.62	12-13	4.37	1.16
9		Jeremy Hellickson	R	@BOS	6	0-2	9.00	1.90	13-10	2.95	1.15
10		Clay Buchholz	R	TB	7	2-2	5.23	1.02	6-3	3.48	1.29
11		Edwin Jackson	R	CIN	4	2-3	6.51	1.59	12-9	3.79	1.44
12		Lance Lynn	R	CHC	9	1-0	2.61	0.97	1-1	3.12	1.04
13		Homer Bailey	R	@WAS	5	1-2	7.98	1.84	9-7	4.43	1.28
14		Carlos Zambrano	R	HOU	6	0-3	6.23	2.03	9-7	4.82	1.44
15		Barry Zito	L	PIT	6	2-1	7.91	2.28	3-4	5.87	1.40
16		Joe Wieland	R	@LAD	6	0-2	5.89	1.36	--	--	--
17		Jonathan Sanchez	L	CLE	7	0-2	8.74	2.03	4-7	4.26	1.44
18		Josh Collmenter	R	@COL	7	0-4	9.95	1.74	10-10	3.38	1.07
19		Jonathon Niese	L	@PHI	4	1-1	5.73	1.36	11-11	4.40	1.41
20		Henderson Alvarez	R	BAL	5	3-0	3.00	1.13	1-3	3.53	1.13
21		Bud Norris	R	@MIA	4	3-2	4.00	1.17	6-11	3.77	1.33
22		Phil Hughes	R	LAA	6	0-1	1.56	1.10	5-5	5.79	1.49
23		Jason Hammel	R	@TOR	3	0-0	3.18	1.18	7-13	4.76	1.43
24		Adam Wilk	L	@CHW	3	0-0	7.50	1.75	0-0	5.40	1.28
25		Charlie Morton	R	@SF	4	0-2	7.07	1.57	10-10	3.83	1.53
26		Mike Minor	L	MIL	1	0-1	2.25	1.17	5-3	4.14	1.49
27		Chris Volstad	R	@STL	2	1-0	4.30	1.16	5-13	4.89	1.42
28		Nick Blackburn	R	TEX	1	0-1	2.12	0.88	7-10	4.49	1.60
29		Hector Noesi	R	OAK	4	0-0	1.80	1.20	2-2	4.47	1.51
30		Jeanmar Gomez	R	@KC	1	1-1	1.37	1.07	5-3	4.47	1.51

Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database.

Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher's opponent for the day. QR: "Quality Rating," or the starting pitcher's matchup rating -- separate from the author's ranking -- which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. OPS is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. W-L: Pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher's average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Mass' Rankings Notes: Saturday

Shaun Marcum has an 8.3 K/9 rate against the Atlanta Braves, who are hitting just .212 so far this season. He'll take top honors for Saturday.

Yu Darvish struggled in his major league debut, but once those first-inning jitters went away, he settled down and actually earned the win. With no butterflies, the second time out should go far more smoothly.

Although C.J. Wilson has never beaten the New York Yankees (0-3), he had a strong first start against the Minnesota Twins, allowing just one run and three hits in seven innings of work.

Vance Worley gets a date with a New York Mets team that doesn't look quite the same without David Wright in the lineup. The third baseman may return to action, but if he's not at full strength, the Mets' potency is clearly diminished.

Ted Lilly is coming off the DL to make his first start of the season, but is 10-4 with a 2.68 ERA lifetime versus the San Diego Padres.

Jeremy Hellickson escaped serious injury after getting struck in the head by a wayward ball in batting practice earlier this week. He should be good to go against Boston.

Lance Lynn pitched into the seventh inning, allowing only two hits in his 2012 debut. The converted reliever will likely be held to a 100-pitch count, but if he's just as effective in start No. 2, he could well give you another quality outing.

With Dustin Moseley on the shelf, 22-year-old Joe Wieland will make his debut against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday. With a good history of control and a fastball in the mid-90s, he should be able to hit the ground running.

Adam Wilk will also make his debut on Saturday, replacing Doug Fister in the Detroit Tigers' rotation. He outpitched fellow minor leaguers Andy Oliver and Casey Crosby to get the call, but was far from the "obvious choice," so temper expectations.

Picks with upside: Gavin Floyd is 6-2 with a 3.68 ERA against the Tigers. Carlos Zambrano is 16-8 with a 2.72 ERA when facing the Houston Astros. Barry Zito threw a shutout versus Colorado on April 9, a far more impressive lineup than that of Saturday's opponent, Pittsburgh.

Negatives to consider: Phil Hughes has a career ERA of 6.20 versus the Los Angeles Angels. Henderson Alvarez has a career K/9 rate of only 5.4 and while he doesn't allow too many baserunners, this will be the third time he's faced Baltimore in 12 career starts. Hector Noesi allowed seven runs in three innings in his first 2012 start. That's more than enough to steer us clear of the right-hander this weekend.

Starting pitcher rankings for April 15

						2012 Spring Training			2011 Statistics
Rk	Team	Name	T	Opp	QR	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
1		Clayton Kershaw	L	SD	10	2-2	2.45	1.23	21-5	2.28	0.98
2		Cole Hamels	L	NYM	7	1-1	2.93	1.19	14-9	2.79	0.99
3		Neftali Feliz	R	@MIN	10	1-1	4.85	1.46	2-3	2.74	1.16
4		Matt Moore	L	@BOS	6	0-1	4.50	1.00	1-0	2.89	1.29
5		Ubaldo Jimenez	R	@KC	7	1-4	7.43	1.96	10-13	4.68	1.40
6		Anibal Sanchez	R	HOU	7	0-1	6.52	1.24	8-9	3.67	1.28
7		Chris Sale	L	DET	9	2-1	4.18	1.11	2-2	2.79	1.11
8		Ivan Nova	R	LAA	6	1-2	8.06	1.52	16-4	3.70	1.33
9		Ryan Vogelsong	R	PIT	9	0-0	3.38	0.75	13-7	2.71	1.25
10		Mike Leake	R	@WAS	5	0-0	5.14	1.64	12-9	3.86	1.17
11		Brandon Beachy	R	MIL	7	1-2	5.54	1.46	7-3	3.68	1.21
12		Chris Narveson	L	@ATL	5	1-1	4.01	1.34	11-8	4.45	1.39
13		Kevin Correia	R	@SF	5	1-1	7.71	1.65	12-11	4.79	1.39
14		Trevor Cahill	R	@COL	4	0-3	6.39	1.58	12-14	4.16	1.43
15		Rick Porcello	R	@CHW	4	2-0	1.59	1.12	14-9	4.75	1.41
16		Ross Detwiler	L	CIN	4	1-1	3.06	1.08	4-5	3.00	1.26
17		Jake Westbrook	R	CHC	4	2-1	1.50	0.79	12-9	4.66	1.53
18		J.A. Happ	L	@MIA	5	1-1	6.59	2.27	6-15	5.35	1.54
19		Blake Beavan	R	OAK	5	1-1	3.48	1.06	5-6	4.27	1.25
20		Drew Pomeranz	L	ARI	5	3-0	0.53	0.88	2-1	5.40	1.31
21		Paul Maholm	L	@STL	3	1-1	1.84	1.09	6-14	3.66	1.29
22		Mike Pelfrey	R	@PHI	4	1-2	7.62	1.50	7-13	4.74	1.47
23		Edinson Volquez	R	@LAD	4	2-0	3.48	1.11	5-7	5.71	1.57
24		Felix Doubront	L	TB	1	1-0	2.70	1.44	0-0	6.10	1.94
25		Graham Godfrey	R	@SEA	4	1-2	5.09	1.42	1-2	3.96	1.48
26		Jerome Williams	R	@NYY	2	--	--	--	4-0	3.68	1.36
27		Kyle Drabek	R	BAL	1	2-0	3.72	1.40	4-5	6.06	1.81
28		Luis Mendoza	R	CLE	1	4-0	0.54	0.84	2-0	1.23	1.09
29		Brian Matusz	L	@TOR	1	1-1	3.65	1.30	1-9	10.69	2.11
30		Liam Hendriks	R	TEX	1	3-1	2.84	1.14	0-2	6.17	1.50

Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database.

Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher's opponent for the day. QR: "Quality Rating," or the starting pitcher's matchup rating -- separate from the author's ranking -- which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. OPS is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. W-L: Pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher's average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Mass' Rankings Notes: Sunday

One shouldn't have to justify putting Clayton Kershaw at the top of the list, but if we did, we'd offer up his 7-3 record and 2.24 ERA versus the San Diego Padres as part of the evidentiary package.

Cole Hamels has never truly shined when facing the New York Mets (3-10 lifetime record) but this year's Mets are hitting just .233 versus southpaws. He'll get the nod just ahead of Neftali Feliz who looked great against the Seattle Mariners last time out, but he's always owned that team. Minnesota, as least, has scored against Feliz in the past, albeit only twice in eight prior outings in relief.

Matt Moore was a bit shaky in his 2012 debut, walking five and allowing a run on a wild pitch. We're hopeful he's a bit more in command in Boston.

Start one for Ubaldo Jimenez found the pitcher taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He's now served his suspension, without having to miss a start, and could find the hitless innings adding up against a Kansas City team hitting just .227 in 2012.

Chris Sale took a one-hit shutout into the sixth in his first career start. We're not sure that he'll be quite as successful against the league's best lineup, but he does have a 2.45 ERA against them in ten relief outings. Don't write him off either.

Rounding out the top 10: Although he allowed ten hits, Ivan Nova struck out seven hitters with no walks in his first 2012 start. Ryan Vogelsong looked sharp in a pair of rehab starts with Triple-A Fresno and appears set to battle the Pirates. Mike Leake is 3-1 lifetime against the Washington Nationals.

Streaming possibilities: Although he's never defeated the Cincinnati Reds (0-3, 3.50 ERA) Ross Detwiler had nothing but goose eggs on the scoreboard in his first start of the season against the then-unbeaten New York Mets. Run support might be hard to come by, but Kevin Correia certainly did his best to keep the Pirates in the game when he held the Dodgers to just one run in his first start, a no-decision.

Drew Pomeranz cruised through four scoreless innings in a Double-A tune up on Tuesday. He should be a strong candidate for Rookie of the Year honors, but early on will likely be held to strict innings count in the majors.

Jerome Williams returns from a rehab stint in Class-A right into a nationally televised affair in Yankee Stadium. He'll also be wearing No. 42 for the night, in tribute to Jackie Robinson. No pressure.

AL risks: Rick Porcello is 2-4 with a 6.91 ERA when facing the Chicago White Sox. Blake Beavan is 1-2 with a 7.56 ERA in games with the Oakland Athletics wielding the bats. Brian Matusz not only struggled in his first start of the year, but is 0-2 with an 18.56 ERA against the Toronto Blue Jays for his career.