Fantasy notes for May 12-13

Starting pitcher rankings for May 12

						2012 Statistics			Past 21 Days
Rk	Team	Name	T	Opp	QR	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
1		Roy Halladay	R	SD	10	3-2	3.28	1.07	0-2	5.13	1.33
2		Matt Cain	R	@ARI	8	1-2	2.38	0.73	0-2	2.95	0.98
3		Brandon Beachy	R	@STL	8	3-1	1.62	0.95	2-0	2.00	0.93
4		Adam Wainwright	R	ATL	10	2-3	5.61	1.28	2-0	2.70	1.05
5		C.J. Wilson	L	@TEX	7	4-2	2.61	1.04	2-1	2.82	1.03
6		R.A. Dickey	R	@MIA	7	4-1	3.76	1.20	2-0	2.14	0.81
7		Mat Latos	R	WAS	9	2-2	4.93	1.44	2-0	2.33	1.09
8		Ricky Nolasco	R	NYM	5	4-0	2.72	1.11	2-0	1.69	0.94
9		Jordan Zimmermann	R	@CIN	6	1-3	2.29	0.99	1-2	3.44	1.31
10		Brandon McCarthy	R	DET	6	2-3	2.96	1.38	2-1	2.18	1.40
11		Trevor Cahill	R	SF	7	2-3	3.26	1.16	1-3	4.26	1.22
12		Shaun Marcum	R	CHC	7	1-1	3.41	1.24	0-0	3.38	1.50
13		Doug Fister	R	@OAK	9	0-0	0.00	0.75	0-0	0.00	0.57
14		Edinson Volquez	R	@PHI	5	1-2	2.98	1.23	1-1	2.13	1.03
15		Matt Harrison	L	LAA	4	4-2	5.11	1.43	2-2	7.83	1.65
16		Phil Hughes	R	SEA	7	2-4	6.67	1.48	1-2	6.60	1.13
17		J.A. Happ	L	@PIT	4	2-2	5.24	1.57	1-2	6.04	1.79
18		Josh Tomlin	R	@BOS	3	1-2	4.67	1.24	0-1	4.50	1.33
19		Chris Sale	L	KC	10	3-1	2.73	1.03	2-0	2.53	1.03
20		Felix Doubront	L	CLE	3	2-1	5.29	1.55	2-1	5.24	1.48
21		Charlie Morton	R	HOU	4	1-3	4.61	1.46	1-3	4.43	1.48
22		Aaron Harang	R	COL	2	1-2	5.24	1.57	0-1	5.09	1.53
23		Juan Nicasio	R	@LAD	2	2-1	5.35	1.63	1-1	4.58	1.81
24		Chris Volstad	R	@MIL	2	0-4	6.55	1.39	0-3	7.36	1.50
25		Luke Hochevar	R	@CHW	3	2-3	9.00	1.82	1-2	9.68	1.92
26		P.J. Walters	R	TOR	3	--	--	--	--	--	--
27		Drew Hutchison	R	@MIN	1	1-1	6.65	1.62	1-1	6.65	1.62
28		Brian Matusz	L	TB	1	1-4	5.91	1.81	1-2	4.84	1.66
29		Hector Noesi	R	@NYY	1	2-3	6.30	1.40	1-2	6.63	1.42
30		Matt Moore	L	@BAL	1	1-2	5.71	1.64	1-1	5.82	1.66

Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database.

Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher's opponent for the day. QR: "Quality Rating," or the starting pitcher's matchup rating -- separate from the author's ranking -- which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. OPS is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. W-L: Pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher's average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Mass' Rankings Notes: Saturday

Roy Halladay rebounded from his disastrous eight-run outing versus the Atlanta Braves with a quality start against the New York Mets. We're willing to call the Braves game an anomaly and expect Doc to improve on his 3-1 career mark and 2.05 ERA against the San Diego Padres.

Matt Cain has held the Arizona Diamondbacks to a .233 batting average in 14 appearances at Chase Field. He'll get the second slot ahead of Brandon Beachy, who has thrown five straight quality starts but is going up against Adam Wainwright, 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA lifetime against the Braves.

R.A. Dickey held the Miami Marlins to just three hits in his April 25 win at Citi Field, and now he gets to go into a stadium that has severely depressed home run totals so far. That's been Dickey's biggest bugaboo this season (22.6 percent HR/FB rate), so the location of this game should help him immensely.

Mat Latos is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA lifetime against the Washington Nationals. We'll give him a slight nod over Ricky Nolasco, who has a 5.03 ERA when facing the New York Mets, though the Marlins pitcher has been stellar so far in 2012.

Jordan Zimmermann could use some run support. He's lost two straight despite quality starts in both appearances. However, the 5.26 K/9 rate does diminish his value a bit in 5X5 and points leagues.

Brandon McCarthy was scratched from his last start with a sore throwing shoulder. After a successful bullpen session, he says there's no reason for concern, but that doesn't mean we're not going to be a bit cautious in our Saturday recommendation.

Stats for streamers: Trevor Cahill is 3-0 with a 1.30 ERA against the San Francisco Giants. Doug Fister, making his second start since returning from a stint on the disabled list, is 5-3 with a 2.55 ERA against the Oakland Athletics. Troubled Phil Hughes went 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA against the Seattle Mariners in 2011.

Young guns: Eric Stults takes the mound to give Philip Humber an extra day of rest. If he does well, he may stick as the team's No. 5 starter, and the Kansas City Royals are hitting just .229 versus lefties. P.J. Walters had a 2.70 ERA in Triple-A this season. He'll make his first start of 2012, replacing Francisco Liriano in the Minnesota rotation. His career ERA in the majors is a gaudy 7.24 ERA.

Starting pitcher rankings for May 13

						2012 Statistics			Past 21 Days
Rk	Team	Name	T	Opp	QR	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
1		Justin Verlander	R	@OAK	10	3-1	2.63	0.94	2-0	3.12	1.15
2		Lance Lynn	R	ATL	10	6-0	1.40	0.85	4-0	1.35	0.90
3		Cole Hamels	L	SD	9	4-1	2.45	1.02	3-0	1.93	0.93
4		Jered Weaver	R	@TEX	7	5-0	1.60	0.79	3-0	1.20	0.73
5		Ricky Romero	L	@MIN	8	4-0	3.56	1.15	2-0	3.45	1.15
6		Wandy Rodriguez	L	@PIT	7	3-3	2.14	1.08	3-1	2.25	1.07
7		Ted Lilly	L	COL	7	4-0	1.41	0.88	3-0	1.80	1.00
8		Jeff Samardzija	R	@MIL	6	4-1	3.03	1.19	2-0	0.84	0.84
9		Neftali Feliz	R	LAA	10	2-1	3.38	1.16	1-1	4.05	1.20
10		Bronson Arroyo	R	WAS	5	2-1	2.75	1.17	1-1	2.55	1.53
11		Tommy Hanson	R	@STL	7	3-3	3.63	1.39	2-1	3.57	1.41
12		James Shields	R	@BAL	4	5-1	3.23	1.23	3-1	3.12	1.27
13		Carlos Zambrano	R	NYM	7	1-2	1.98	1.02	1-2	1.24	0.90
14		Daniel Bard	R	CLE	10	2-4	4.83	1.52	2-2	4.95	1.40
15		Jarrod Parker	R	DET	8	1-0	1.80	1.15	1-0	1.80	1.15
16		Jeff Suppan	R	@PHI	1	2-0	0.90	1.20	2-0	0.90	1.20
17		Edwin Jackson	R	@CIN	4	1-1	3.49	1.01	0-0	2.75	1.17
18		Jake Arrieta	R	TB	4	2-3	4.23	1.07	1-3	5.55	1.23
19		Andy Pettitte	L	SEA	8	--	--	--	--	--	--
20		Joe Saunders	L	SF	4	2-2	2.50	1.13	1-2	3.51	1.21
21		Jonathon Niese	L	@MIA	4	2-1	4.01	1.22	0-1	5.14	1.38
22		Philip Humber	R	KC	6	1-2	6.83	1.48	1-2	8.06	1.43
23		Barry Zito	L	@ARI	4	1-1	2.21	1.25	0-1	3.05	1.69
24		Justin Masterson	R	@BOS	4	1-2	4.89	1.56	1-1	3.86	1.68
25		Marco Estrada	R	CHC	5	0-2	4.50	1.13	0-2	5.00	1.06
26		Scott Diamond	L	TOR	5	1-0	0.00	0.71	1-0	0.00	0.71
27		Drew Pomeranz	L	@LAD	6	0-2	4.70	1.74	0-1	3.38	1.55
28		A.J. Burnett	R	HOU	4	1-2	6.08	1.44	1-2	6.08	1.44
29		Blake Beavan	R	@NYY	1	1-3	4.32	1.23	0-2	5.40	1.40
30		Danny Duffy	L	@CHW	1	2-2	4.00	1.59	1-1	5.65	2.09

Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database.

Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher's opponent for the day. QR: "Quality Rating," or the starting pitcher's matchup rating -- separate from the author's ranking -- which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. OPS is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. W-L: Pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher's average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Mass' Rankings Notes: Sunday

Our top five pitchers for Sunday are a combined 14-0 over the last three weeks. Save for Lance Lynn, who has never faced the Atlanta Braves before, the remaining quarter all have solid histories versus their opponents on Sunday. Justin Verlander has a 2.68 ERA against the Oakland Athletics, Cole Hamels is 7-2 with a 2.22 ERA facing the San Diego Padres, Ricky Romero is 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA battling the Minnesota Twins, and Jered Weaver has a 3.41 ERA versus the Texas Rangers.

Ted Lilly is 9-2 with a 3.77 ERA lifetime against the Colorado Rockies, and has an 0.90 ERA at home this season. With 23 strikeouts in his last 21 1/3 innings, you have to like the chances of Jeff Samardzija against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have the fourth-most strikeouts in the majors so far this year.

Neftali Feliz has made 22 relief appearances against the Los Angeles Angels, and has an ERA of 1.21 and 15 saves in those games. Starting is a horse of a different color, but certainly that history bodes well.

Justin Masterson has a 9.00 ERA on the road this season, while Daniel Bard has only a 3.75 ERA at Fenway Park. This one is pretty much a gut call that flies in the face of the standings, but one we feel comfortable making.

James Shields is 2-1 but with a 5.50 ERA at Camden Yards since 2010. He falls out of our top 10 for the day, but that just speaks to the depth of the pitching pool. Even Edwin Jackson at No. 17 is a decent play, with a 1.69 ERA lifetime versus the Cincinnati Reds, for example.

Andy Pettitte takes the mound for the first time since 2010. Don't expect more than five innings, at best, as the New York Yankees are not likely to push the veteran too hard even if he has a strong return.

Scott Diamond threw seven shutout innings in his 2012 debut, but that did come against an Los Angeles Angels lineup that, after that start, had been blanked seven times in 31 games. The Toronto Blue Jays have only been shutout once this season, so Diamond may find things a bit more rough this time around.