Fantasy notes for June 18

Starting pitcher rankings for June 18

						2012 Statistics			Past 21 Days
Rk	Team	Name	T	Opp	QR	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
1		Matt Cain	R	@LAA	10	8-2	2.18	0.85	4-0	0.59	0.75
2		R.A. Dickey	R	BAL	8	10-1	2.20	0.94	4-0	0.00	0.55
3		Matt Harrison	L	@SD	8	8-3	3.54	1.24	3-0	1.45	0.87
4		CC Sabathia	L	ATL	8	8-3	3.70	1.27	2-1	3.86	1.43
5		Wade Miley	L	SEA	10	7-3	2.39	1.04	1-2	2.35	0.57
6		Matt Garza	R	@CHW	6	2-5	4.04	1.12	0-3	4.70	1.13
7		Mat Latos	R	@CLE	8	5-2	4.64	1.37	2-0	5.25	1.25
8		Jerome Williams	R	SF	6	6-4	4.20	1.31	1-2	5.31	1.33
9		Jonathan Sanchez	L	@HOU	8	1-2	5.93	1.85	0-0	1.80	1.80
10		Randy Wolf	L	TOR	4	2-5	5.06	1.58	0-1	3.20	1.34
11		Jake Arrieta	R	@NYM	3	3-8	5.89	1.38	1-3	9.00	1.70
12		Derek Lowe	R	CIN	3	7-5	3.78	1.53	1-2	5.60	1.53
13		Henderson Alvarez	R	@MIL	3	3-6	3.87	1.28	0-2	4.87	1.28
14		Jason Marquis	R	TEX	1	3-5	6.60	1.86	1-1	1.46	1.62
15		J.A. Happ	L	KC	3	4-7	5.33	1.60	0-4	7.17	1.88
16		Zach Stewart	R	CHC	1	1-1	5.18	1.48	0-0	8.10	1.65
17		Hector Noesi	R	@ARI	2	2-7	5.54	1.23	0-2	6.17	1.33
18		Mike Minor	L	@NYY	1	3-4	6.01	1.42	1-0	1.46	1.22

Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database.

Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher's opponent for the day. QR: "Quality Rating," or the starting pitcher's matchup rating -- separate from the author's ranking -- which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. OPS is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. W-L: Pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher's average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Rankings notes

Monday's docket provides a wide mix of talent among starting pitchers. Four of the 18 starters could be considered aces, the guys who are no-brainer fantasy plays whenever they take the hill: Matt Cain, R.A. Dickey, CC Sabathia and Matt Garza. However, eight of the remaining 14 starters have ERAs above 5.00 this season: Jason Marquis (6.60), Mike Minor (6.01), Jonathan Sanchez (5.93), Jake Arrieta (5.89), Hector Noesi (5.54), J.A. Happ (5.33), Zach Stewart (5.18) and Randy Wolf (5.06). Although Sanchez and Wolf are both coming off strong outings, this lefty duo should be started only if you're desperate and in a deep league. That leaves us with six pitchers to break down to determine if they're worth starting in standard leagues:

Matt Harrison's ESPN.com fantasy ownership has risen nearly 50 percent in the past two weeks, but he's still available in 18.5 percent of ESPN leagues. Nobody has a better matchup than he does Monday, facing the lowly San Diego Padres at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Harrison has a couple of impressive streaks going on. In addition to his 16 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings, the Texas Rangers have won each of his past five starts. Harrison is 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in this span, with 67 ground balls and just 50 fly balls. In case you didn't realize how bad the Padres offense has been, it ranks dead last in the majors in slugging (.356) and have the third-worst batting average (.229). Those numbers are even worse at home (.331 SLG, .214 BA). All of this makes Harrison a must-start in any fantasy format Monday.

Like Harrison, Wade Miley (80 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) is another young lefty on a roll. In his past two starts, facing the Colorado Rockies and the mighty Rangers in Arlington, Miley's pitching line is outstanding: 15 2/3 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 13 K's. On Monday, he'll get to face a much weaker opponent in the Seattle Mariners, who rank among the bottom five in the majors in BA (.235), OBP (.298) and SLG (.372). Miley has not allowed more than 3 ER in any of his six home starts this season, going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Although his strikeout rate is a pedestrian 6.5 K's/9 this season, Miley should be able to rack up a few K's, considering the Mariners have whiffed 86 times in the past 10 games. And his mound opponent, Hector Noesi, has been horrible on the road this season (0-3, 8.15 ERA, 1.61 WHIP). This all adds up to Miley being a good start Monday.

Mat Latos (86 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) has been wildly inconsistent this season, but his Cincinnati Reds usually provide him with good run support, going 8-2 in Latos' past 10 starts, including five straight victories. During this five-game team win streak, Latos has a subpar 4.65 ERA, but he has made up for that with 26 strikeouts and just five walks in these 31 innings. He should fare well Monday against the Cleveland Indians, the same team he held to two runs on seven hits in seven strong innings last Wednesday. Just be wary of his horrendous road numbers this year (6.12 ERA, 1.72 WHIP); those do a lot more damage than his road 10.8 K/9 rate helps you. That being said, Latos is still worth playing in standard leagues Monday.

Jerome Williams (10 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) has thrown four of his past five starts in the state of California, with mixed results: 13 1/3 IP, 4 ER in first two, 13 1/3 IP, 10 ER in most recent pair. On Monday, he'll toe the rubber at home in Anaheim again, where he has been mostly great this season (5-1, 2.93 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). In these six home starts, his control has been impeccable, with 31 K's and just 5 walks. And considering his free-swinging opponent, the San Francisco Giants, who have drawn a total of 16 walks with 59 K's in their past 10 games, Williams should be able to produce another quality home start. Just don't expect a victory, as he opposes Matt Cain fresh off his perfect game.

Derek Lowe (18 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) somehow has seven wins and a respectable 3.78 ERA this season. These stats are absolute head-scratchers considering his 1.53 WHIP, .301 Opponents' BA and 3.2 K's/9. Lowe has 28 strikeouts and 26 walks in his 78 2/3 innings this season! Don't expect his good fortune to continue against a Reds team that has been mashing the baseball during their five-game win streak (.320 BA/.390 OBP/.514 SLG). Lowe's performance at Progressive Field this season (1.37 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) could justify starting him in AL-only leagues, but you'll be better off cutting ties with Lowe now before his luck completely runs out.

Henderson Alvarez (3 percent of ESPN.com fantasy ownership) is going through a rough stretch in his past six starts, all Toronto Blue Jays losses. In this six-start span, Alvarez is 0-4 with a 5.50 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, .327 opponents' BA and 2.9 K's/9. If you think facing a National League club will help him, think again. In his two career starts against the NL, he has allowed 10 runs on 18 hits in these 12 innings. His Monday opponent, the Milwaukee Brewers are also hitting pretty well in the past 10 games with a .335 OBP and .455 SLG thanks to 33 extra-base hits. Do not take a chance on starting Alvarez on Monday.