Fantasy notes for September 28
Click through for information on specific matchups and injuries for the day's games.
Starting pitcher rankings for September 28
| Name | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | Cliff Lee | L | @MIA | 9 | 6-8 | 3.18 | 1.13 | 2-1 | 1.23 | 1.02 |
| 2 |  | Clayton Kershaw | L | COL | 10 | 12-9 | 2.68 | 1.04 | 0-1 | 0.75 | 1.33 |
| 3 |  | Yovani Gallardo | R | HOU | 8 | 16-8 | 3.59 | 1.29 | 2-0 | 2.19 | 1.09 |
| 4 |  | Adam Wainwright | R | WAS | 9 | 13-13 | 4.02 | 1.26 | 0-1 | 3.79 | 1.26 |
| 5 |  | Tim Hudson | R | NYM | 8 | 16-6 | 3.61 | 1.22 | 3-1 | 2.77 | 1.12 |
| 6 |  | Jered Weaver | R | @TEX | 8 | 19-4 | 2.74 | 1.00 | 3-0 | 1.77 | 0.79 |
| 7 |  | Jeremy Hellickson | R | @CHW | 7 | 9-10 | 3.20 | 1.27 | 1-0 | 1.74 | 1.26 |
| 8 |  | Ryan Vogelsong | R | @SD | 8 | 13-9 | 3.58 | 1.25 | 1-2 | 6.91 | 1.47 |
| 9 |  | Hiroki Kuroda | R | @TOR | 6 | 14-11 | 3.34 | 1.13 | 1-1 | 5.50 | 1.33 |
| 10 |  | Ian Kennedy | R | CHC | 6 | 14-11 | 4.14 | 1.30 | 2-0 | 2.11 | 1.13 |
| 11 |  | Chris Tillman | R | BOS | 2 | 8-2 | 3.08 | 1.14 | 1-0 | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| 12 |  | Ryan Dempster | R | LAA | 5 | 12-7 | 3.07 | 1.15 | 2-1 | 4.76 | 1.41 |
| 13 |  | A.J. Griffin | R | SEA | 10 | 6-1 | 2.80 | 1.05 | 2-1 | 4.03 | 1.43 |
| 14 |  | A.J. Burnett | R | CIN | 4 | 16-8 | 3.53 | 1.23 | 1-3 | 2.88 | 1.20 |
| 15 |  | Homer Bailey | R | @PIT | 6 | 12-10 | 3.92 | 1.30 | 2-1 | 2.93 | 0.98 |
| 16 |  | Drew Smyly | L | @MIN | 6 | 4-3 | 4.24 | 1.29 | 0-0 | 4.05 | 1.35 |
| 17 |  | Jonathon Niese | L | @ATL | 6 | 12-9 | 3.49 | 1.18 | 2-1 | 2.95 | 1.25 |
| 18 |  | Will Smith | L | @CLE | 1 | 6-8 | 4.88 | 1.53 | 2-1 | 2.84 | 1.53 |
| 19 |  | Scott Diamond | L | DET | 3 | 12-8 | 3.64 | 1.26 | 1-2 | 5.89 | 1.53 |
| 20 |  | Travis Wood | L | @ARI | 5 | 6-12 | 4.23 | 1.18 | 2-1 | 2.22 | 0.90 |
| 21 |  | Mark Buehrle | L | PHI | 5 | 13-13 | 3.84 | 1.19 | 1-1 | 4.79 | 1.06 |
| 22 |  | Blake Beavan | R | @OAK | 4 | 10-10 | 4.64 | 1.27 | 1-1 | 1.29 | 1.21 |
| 23 |  | David Huff | L | KC | 2 | 2-0 | 2.25 | 1.00 | 2-0 | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| 24 |  | Edwin Jackson | R | @STL | 4 | 9-10 | 3.77 | 1.18 | 0-1 | 5.00 | 1.22 |
| 25 |  | Gavin Floyd | R | TB | 5 | 10-11 | 4.56 | 1.39 | 1-2 | 4.58 | 1.08 |
| 26 |  | Andrew Werner | L | SF | 6 | 2-2 | 4.64 | 1.27 | 1-1 | 6.60 | 1.60 |
| 27 |  | Jeff Francis | L | @LAD | 3 | 5-6 | 5.54 | 1.48 | 0-2 | 4.58 | 1.47 |
| 28 |  | Aaron Cook | R | @BAL | 2 | 4-10 | 5.13 | 1.40 | 1-1 | 4.96 | 1.47 |
| 29 |  | Edgar Gonzalez | R | @MIL | 4 | 2-1 | 3.94 | 1.13 | 1-1 | 5.06 | 1.13 |
| 30 |  | Chad Jenkins | R | NYY | 4 | 0-2 | 4.24 | 1.29 | 0-1 | 4.26 | 0.95 |
Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher's opponent for the day. QR: "Quality Rating," or the starting pitcher's matchup rating -- separate from the author's ranking -- which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. OPS is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. W-L: Pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher's average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.
Rankings notes
The weekend is upon us and there are just six shopping days left to get your wins and strikeouts. There are plenty of great arms taking the mound on Friday night, including these five minority-owned pitchers that should help give your fantasy rotation that final kick:
Chris Tillman (19 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) is 8-2 with a 3.08 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 7.0 K's/9 in 13 starts this season, but is still available in more than 80 percent of the ESPN universe? In his past five starts, four versus top-8 scoring teams in baseball, Tillman is 3-0 with a 2.20 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, .173 opponents' BA and 6.9 K's/9. One of those outings was a six-inning, one-run gem against the same Boston Red Sox team he draws again on Friday. Considering the record of both the Sox (7-20) and Baltimore Orioles (19-10) since August 28, chances are pretty strong that Tillman will get the victory, especially with a mound opponent in the form of Aaron Cook, who sports an 8.78 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in three starts versus Baltimore this year. To all fantasy owners, pick up Tillman now and make sure he's in your rotation on Friday.
Fantasy owners are bailing on A.J. Griffin (37 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) for an 18 percent drop in ownership in the ESPN universe. That's not really fair considering his past two outings were both on the road at the Detroit Tigers and at the New York Yankees. On Friday he returns to his pitcher-friendly home ballpark, where he is 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, .189 opponents' BA and .497 opponent's OPS! Visitors to O.co Coliseum have just five extra base hits in 128 plate appearances off Griffin. The 24-year-old right-hander has a favorable matchup on Friday with the Seattle Mariners coming to town. When Griffin faced the M's earlier this month, he allowed just one run in 5 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts. Seattle is 1-6 in the past seven meetings with Oakland, scoring exactly one run in five of those defeats. And the Mariners will try to beat Griffin with Blake Beavan, who has a 6.46 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in four career starts versus Oakland. Griffin should be starting in all fantasy leagues on Friday.
Homer Bailey (42 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) is fighting for a postseason rotation spot, which gives him plenty of incentive to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday. His career numbers versus the Bucs are pretty strong, going 7-2 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 6.9 K's/9. These stats are even more impressive when he takes the mound at PNC Park: 4-0 record, 1.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and .467 opponents' slugging percentage (0 HR's in 138 plate appearances). Considering how bad the Pirates have played in September (6-18 record, .235 BA/.315 OBP/.365 SLG), and that Andrew McCutchen (knee) is not likely to play on Friday, Bailey is a great win candidate and should be started in most fantasy formats here.
Drew Smyly (5 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) returned to the rotation on Sunday, holding the Minnesota Twins to zero earned runs in 4 1/3 innings. That gives him a 2.89 ERA in two starts against them this season, and on Friday he'll get another shot at beating them as the spot starter replacing Max Scherzer (shoulder). The 23-year-old rookie has been a solid starter, posting a 4.01 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and an impressive 8.3 K's/9 rate in 17 starts. Smyly's Detroit Tigers lineup has loved hitting in Target Field this season with 6.0 runs per game, .326 BA, .390 OBP and .482 SLG in six games, winning five of those. For deep fantasy league owners, Smyly is worth a start on Friday.
Will Smith (1 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) is certainly a longshot, but if you're desperate for wins in an AL-only or mega-deep fantasy league, I like his chances on Friday against the Cleveland Indians. Smith has already faced the Indians twice this season, beating them both times with a 2.77 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 6.9 K's/9. Cleveland is a horrific 3-11 in its past 14 home games, scoring just 3.3 runs per game with a brutal .222/.293/.327 slash in front of the home crowd. Smith is also finishing his season strong with a 2.84 ERA in his past three starts, and only the Colorado Rockies are the only major-league team with a worse record against left-handed starters than the Indians have this season at 17-34.
Hitter matchup ratings for September 28
| Overall | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | 6 | 1 | 7 | 7 | | 6 | 10 | 1 | 6 | |
| | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | | 6 | 2 | 7 | 5 | |
| | 10 | 10 | 6 | 6 | | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| | 7 | 8 | 5 | 3 | | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | |
| | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | | 8 | 10 | 4 | 6 | |
| | 4 | 6 | 1 | 5 | | 6 | 4 | 6 | 5 | |
| | 7 | 6 | 6 | 10 | | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | |
| | 10 | 10 | 9 | 5 | | 6 | 7 | 4 | 7 | |
| | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | |
| | 7 | 8 | 6 | 7 | | 6 | 2 | 7 | 9 | |
| | 4 | 6 | 1 | 6 | | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| | 9 | 10 | 7 | 5 | | 6 | 7 | 3 | 7 | |
| | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | |
| | 9 | 4 | 9 | 3 | | 5 | 6 | 2 | 5 | |
| | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. "LHB" and "RHB" ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. OPS is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.
• Entering Thursday, Seattle's Franklin Gutierrez is 17 for 55 (.309 BA) with 7 extra base hits and an OPS of .886 on the road this year (.232 BA, 6 extra base hits, .642 OPS at home).
• Rays P Jeremy Hellickson has enjoyed a good month of September. In four games, he is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA.
• Brian McCann has struggled in his career against starter Jonathon Niese going 1-12 (.083) with five strikeouts.
• Cubs' slugger Alfonso Soriano has thrived against Ian Kennedy in his career going 6-11 (.545) with four extra-base hits, including three home runs, six RBI, and a 2.038 OPS.
• Adrian Beltre has struggled in games against the Angels this season, batting just 12-59 (.203) with 15 strikeouts.
• Since joining the Dodgers, Joe Blanton is 1-4 with a 5.57 ERA in 9 starts.
• Carlos Lee is 11 for 27 (.407) with 3 home runs and 8 RBI against Cliff Lee in his career.
• Yovani Gallardo is 3-0 with 2.18 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 3 games this season against the Astros.
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates: He injured his knee attempting to make a diving catch in the outfield on Thursday, and it is unclear how long he'll be out.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals: He left Thursday's game after suffering a strained right shoulder from diving for a ball. He will not likely play again this season.
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Indians: He left Wednesday's game with a strained back, and this could be a season-ending injury.
Neil Walker, 2B, Pirates: He was unable to play on Wednesday due to his lingering back problems, and the team is seriously considering ending Walker's season immediately
Alcides Escobar, SS, Royals: He left Thursday's game with a strained right shoulder trying to make a diving play in the field. It's unclear how long he will be out.
Shane Victorino, OF, Dodgers: He did not play on Wednesday because of a left wrist strain. It is uncertain when he'll be able to return.
Albert Pujols, 1B, Angels: He's been playing with a strained right calf since Sept. 22, and will likely serve as the team's DH for the remainder of the season.
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: He hasn't played since Sept. 20 due to a strained lat muscle, but hopes to return to action on this weekend.
Logan Forsythe, 2B, Padres: He was unable to play on Thursday because of a sore right knee, and is considered day-to-day.
Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers: He missed Tuesday's start due to a stiff neck, but the move was more precautionary as opposed to anything serious. Darvish should be ready for a start sometime before the regular season is done.
Max Scherzer, SP, Tigers: He will not pitch on Friday with a right-shoulder fatigue, but he could make another start before the season ends.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins: He hasn't played since Sept. 16 because of a sore oblique, but he expects to step back on the field this weekend, probably rejoining the lineup on Saturday.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies: He hasn't played since Sept. 23 due to inflammation behind his knee and will likely be shut down for the season.
Josh Willingham, OF, Twins: He injured his left shoulder after he slammed into the outfield fence on Monday and hasn't played since. He's targeting a Friday return to action.
Carlos Quentin, OF, Padres: He hasn't played since Sept. 19 because of soreness in his surgically repaired left knee, and will likely be used as strictly a pinch-hitter for the remainder of the season.
David Freese, 3B, Cardinals: He left Monday's game after rolling his ankle, but the team sees him as day-to-day, and he should return to action sometime this weekend.
Jose Molina, C, Rays: He strained his right quad running to first base on Tuesday, and could be out for a few games.
Dexter Fowler, OF, Rockies: He has not started since Sept. 22 due to tendinitis in his left wrist. He is likely done for the season.
Chris Johnson, 3B, Diamondbacks: He was hit by a pitch on his left wrist on Sept. 23, but suffered on only a contusion and no broken bones. It is unclear when he will return to the lineup.
Michael Bourn, OF, Braves: Bourn hasn't played since spraining his thumb on Sept. 22, and will likely be out until the weekend.
Michael Brantley, OF, Indians: He hurt his groin running the bases on Sept. 23, but hopes to return to action on Friday.
Justin Ruggiano, OF, Marlins: He injured his shoulder diving for a ball on Sept. 21 and will miss the rest of the season.
Coco Crisp: OF, Athletics. He has not batted since Sept. 18 due to a pinkeye-like eye condition. Speculation is that he'll return on Friday.
Ryan Ludwick, OF, Reds: He has not played since Sept. 19 with a tight left groin, but should return to action some time this weekend.
Wily Peralta, SP, Brewers: He left Thursday's game with right biceps tightness and the 23-year-old is probably done for the season.
Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Indians: He is out for the rest of 2012 with a sprained right ankle.
Frank Francisco, RP, Mets: He has not pitched since Sept. 16 due to tendinitis in right elbow, and it appears as if he will not pitch again this season.
