Fantasy daily notes for October 1

Starting pitcher rankings for October 1

						2012 Statistics			Past 21 Days
Rk	Team	Name	T	Opp	QR	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
1		Matt Cain	R	@LAD	10	16-5	2.77	1.04	3-0	0.90	1.10
2		Felix Hernandez	R	LAA	10	13-8	2.86	1.10	0-1	5.00	1.39
3		CC Sabathia	L	BOS	6	14-6	3.42	1.16	1-1	2.38	0.88
4		Josh Johnson	R	NYM	9	8-14	3.81	1.28	0-3	3.79	1.26
5		Shaun Marcum	R	SD	8	6-4	3.74	1.25	1-0	4.71	1.33
6		C.J. Wilson	L	@SEA	10	12-10	3.86	1.33	0-1	6.23	1.62
7		Paul Maholm	L	@PIT	5	13-10	3.71	1.23	1-1	4.08	1.19
8		Wade Miley	L	COL	4	16-11	3.32	1.20	1-2	5.82	1.65
9		Jaime Garcia	L	CIN	7	6-7	3.99	1.38	2-1	3.27	1.27
10		Wei-Yin Chen	L	@TB	5	12-10	4.11	1.27	0-1	4.58	1.53
11		Alex Cobb	R	BAL	7	10-9	4.18	1.28	1-1	3.45	1.28
12		Bronson Arroyo	R	@STL	3	12-9	3.70	1.20	0-2	4.05	1.30
13		Clay Buchholz	R	@NYY	5	11-7	4.22	1.29	0-2	2.83	1.22
14		Aaron Harang	R	SF	5	10-10	3.68	1.43	1-2	2.93	1.63
15		Jarrod Parker	R	TEX	7	12-8	3.44	1.26	3-0	2.25	1.00
16		Hector Santiago	L	@CLE	7	3-1	3.69	1.45	0-0	3.60	2.10
17		Clayton Richard	L	@MIL	4	14-13	3.91	1.23	2-1	5.40	1.38
18		Kyle Kendrick	R	@WAS	4	10-12	4.08	1.30	2-2	4.79	1.21
19		Jeurys Familia	R	@MIA	9	0-0	8.64	1.44	0-0	8.53	1.11
20		Chien-Ming Wang	R	PHI	2	2-3	6.60	2.03	0-0	2.84	1.58
21		Martin Perez	L	@OAK	1	1-3	5.03	1.59	0-2	6.43	1.71
22		Bruce Chen	L	DET	3	11-13	5.13	1.35	1-1	3.20	1.47
23		Aaron Laffey	L	MIN	4	4-6	4.52	1.35	1-1	5.11	1.54
24		Fernando Abad	L	@CHC	1	0-6	5.12	1.64	0-3	4.50	1.40
25		Rick Porcello	R	@KC	2	9-12	4.68	1.54	0-1	5.79	1.71
26		Jason Berken	R	HOU	1	0-2	6.00	2.07	0-2	5.14	1.71
27		Corey Kluber	R	CHW	1	2-4	5.02	1.52	1-1	5.40	1.43
28		Drew Pomeranz	L	@ARI	3	2-9	5.01	1.51	1-1	5.40	1.73
29		Esmerling Vasquez	R	@TOR	4	0-2	5.88	1.62	0-1	5.31	1.57
30		Jeff Locke	L	ATL	1	0-3	6.35	1.41	0-2	7.11	1.63

Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database.

Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher's opponent for the day. QR: "Quality Rating," or the starting pitcher's matchup rating -- separate from the author's ranking -- which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. OPS is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. W-L: Pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher's average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Rankings notes

There are just three days left in the regular season, and Monday provides a rare full slate of games. Although there are just a handful of aces taking the hill to start the work week, it was definitely a struggle to find decent waiver-wire options among this unimpressive group of starters, 10 of which sport an ERA above 5.00. Here are the four best options owned in less than 50 percent of leagues:

Paul Maholm (45 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) was roughed up a couple times in September, but he has settled down and thrown back-to-back quality starts (1.35 ERA, 11 K's, 1 BB in 13 1/3 IP). Expect this streak to continue when he faces the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates, his former team, at PNC Park. Like most pitchers, Maholm has thrived in this ballpark in the past two years, posting a 3.12 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 17 starts in Pittsburgh. That includes two starts this season, where he's 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, and he has held the Pirates to a .250 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh is coming off a horrendous September (7-20 record), which includes a 3-8 mark at home. In these past 11 PNC Park games, the Bucs are batting just .198 and slugging .287, which is why they have 2.1 runs per game during this home slump. Start Maholm in all fantasy formats Monday.

Wei-Yin Chen (28 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) will face the Tampa Bay Rays for the fifth time in his rookie season. Although his initial start versus his division rival was poor (5 2/3 IP, 5 ER), he has thrown three straight quality starts against them since then, going 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 6.9 K's/9. His last outing at Tropicana Field on Aug. 4 was a 4-0 win, in which Chen threw seven scoreless frames. This was the first of five straight Baltimore Orioles wins in this season series, as the Rays have totaled six runs in 51 innings during this skid versus the O's, batting .196 with a .268 slugging percentage. With the Orioles scoring 5.7 runs per game during a 10-3 surge, Chen is a great win candidate and should be used in the majority of fantasy leagues Monday.

Bronson Arroyo (31 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) continues to impress, going 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his past nine starts. His record during this run should be even better, but his Cincinnati Reds have totaled two runs in his past three outings. Arroyo hasn't always enjoyed facing the St. Louis Cardinals in his career -- he's 8-12 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 32 appearances (30 starts, 2 relief) against them -- but he did limit them to three runs in eight innings, tallying five strikeouts and no walks in his lone meeting with the Redbirds this year. The Reds have beaten the Cards in five of the past seven meetings, holding St. Louis to three runs or fewer in all five of those defeats. Cincinnati is also 10-4 in its past 14 road games, making Arroyo a decent play in NL-only formats Monday.

Aaron Harang (12 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) has not allowed more than three runs in a start since August began, a stretch of nine straight outings, in which his ERA is 3.47. Although his K-to-BB ratio is a dismal 32-to-28 in these 49 1/3 innings, the biggest reason Harang is worth a start in deep fantasy leagues on Monday is his recent dominance of the San Francisco Giants. Since 2008, Harang is 4-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in eight starts versus the Giants, throwing quality starts in seven of these eight outings and striking out nearly five batters per game. And with the way his Los Angeles Dodgers are mashing the baseball during their four-game win streak (.340 BA/.386 OBP/.531 SLG), Harang has a remote possibility of beating Matt Cain on Monday.