Fantasy daily notes for October 2
Click through for information on specific matchups, injuries and weather for the day's games.
Starting pitcher rankings for October 2
| Name | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | R.A. Dickey | R | @MIA | 8 | 20-6 | 2.69 | 1.05 | 2-2 | 3.03 | 1.21 |
| 2 |  | Gio Gonzalez | L | PHI | 9 | 21-8 | 2.89 | 1.13 | 3-1 | 2.25 | 1.21 |
| 3 |  | Jake Peavy | R | @CLE | 7 | 11-12 | 3.37 | 1.12 | 1-2 | 4.50 | 1.17 |
| 4 |  | Doug Fister | R | @KC | 7 | 10-9 | 3.38 | 1.17 | 2-1 | 2.60 | 0.94 |
| 5 |  | Matt Harrison | L | @OAK | 7 | 18-10 | 3.26 | 1.26 | 3-1 | 2.54 | 1.20 |
| 6 |  | Dan Haren | R | @SEA | 8 | 12-12 | 4.32 | 1.29 | 2-2 | 3.47 | 0.99 |
| 7 |  | Mat Latos | R | @STL | 8 | 13-4 | 3.52 | 1.16 | 1-0 | 2.51 | 1.01 |
| 8 |  | Tommy Hanson | R | @PIT | 7 | 13-9 | 4.38 | 1.45 | 1-1 | 4.60 | 1.34 |
| 9 |  | Chris Carpenter | R | CIN | 7 | 0-1 | 3.27 | 0.91 | 0-1 | 3.27 | 0.91 |
| 10 |  | James Shields | R | BAL | 6 | 15-9 | 3.62 | 1.21 | 1-1 | 2.75 | 1.22 |
| 11 |  | Miguel Gonzalez | R | @TB | 6 | 8-4 | 3.45 | 1.24 | 2-0 | 2.79 | 1.29 |
| 12 |  | Chris Capuano | L | SF | 6 | 12-11 | 3.69 | 1.21 | 1-1 | 4.91 | 1.57 |
| 13 |  | Barry Zito | L | @LAD | 5 | 14-8 | 4.19 | 1.40 | 3-0 | 2.95 | 1.47 |
| 14 |  | Hisashi Iwakuma | R | LAA | 5 | 8-5 | 3.32 | 1.28 | 2-1 | 2.95 | 1.25 |
| 15 |  | Jacob Turner | R | NYM | 3 | 2-5 | 4.94 | 1.29 | 1-2 | 2.50 | 1.22 |
| 16 |  | David Phelps | R | BOS | 5 | 4-4 | 3.34 | 1.21 | 1-0 | 2.30 | 1.15 |
| 17 |  | Bud Norris | R | @CHC | 4 | 6-13 | 4.82 | 1.39 | 1-1 | 3.55 | 1.03 |
| 18 |  | Jon Lester | L | @NYY | 5 | 9-14 | 4.94 | 1.37 | 0-3 | 4.62 | 1.30 |
| 19 |  | Justin Masterson | R | CHW | 6 | 11-15 | 5.03 | 1.47 | 0-3 | 6.55 | 1.77 |
| 20 |  | Kevin Correia | R | ATL | 4 | 11-11 | 4.33 | 1.31 | 1-3 | 4.63 | 1.24 |
| 21 |  | Jeremy Guthrie | R | DET | 2 | 7-12 | 4.82 | 1.41 | 0-0 | 3.00 | 1.14 |
| 22 |  | Jhoulys Chacin | R | @ARI | 5 | 3-5 | 4.78 | 1.67 | 1-0 | 5.50 | 1.83 |
| 23 |  | Anthony Bass | R | @MIL | 6 | 2-7 | 4.50 | 1.30 | 0-0 | 2.57 | 0.71 |
| 24 |  | Patrick Corbin | L | COL | 1 | 6-8 | 4.77 | 1.35 | 1-1 | 8.36 | 1.79 |
| 25 |  | Chad Jenkins | R | MIN | 7 | 0-3 | 4.67 | 1.37 | 0-2 | 5.40 | 1.30 |
| 26 |  | Tyler Thornburg | R | SD | 1 | 0-0 | 5.00 | 1.50 | 0-0 | 2.25 | 0.75 |
| 27 |  | Anthony Swarzak | R | @TOR | 4 | 3-5 | 4.91 | 1.41 | 0-1 | 3.48 | 1.65 |
| 28 |  | B.J. Rosenberg | R | @WAS | 9 | 1-2 | 6.86 | 1.29 | 0-0 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| 29 |  | Chris Volstad | R | HOU | 3 | 3-11 | 6.64 | 1.68 | 1-1 | 8.66 | 2.38 |
| 30 |  | Travis Blackley | L | TEX | 3 | 5-4 | 4.16 | 1.22 | 0-1 | 17.18 | 3.82 |
Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher's opponent for the day. QR: "Quality Rating," or the starting pitcher's matchup rating -- separate from the author's ranking -- which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. OPS is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. W-L: Pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher's average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.
The big boys are coming to play on the penultimate day of the MLB regular season, as 10 Tuesday starters are owned in more than 80 percent of ESPN.com fantasy leagues, including eight pitchers owned in at least 93 percent of the ESPN universe. With so many aces toeing the rubber, wins will be hard to find, but here are five solid candidates for quality starts, all available in at least half of ESPN.com fantasy leagues:
Chris Carpenter (50 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) has a tough matchup against a Cincinnati Reds team still fighting for the best record in the majors and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. However, Carpenter has dominated this club in his career, going 14-4 with a 2.48 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 8.0 K's/9 in 23 starts versus Cincy. Since 2009, Carpenter is 11-1 against the Reds. He has looked very good in his return from the DL, with a 3.27 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in two starts. And with the way his St. Louis Cardinals team keeps winning (10-3 record, 5.4 runs per game since Sept. 16), one would think Carpenter has a great shot at beating red-hot Mat Latos in Busch Stadium. The Reds hurler has a nauseating 10.24 ERA, 1.97 WHIP and .363 opponents' BA in six career starts versus St. Louis. Start Carpenter in all fantasy leagues on Monday.
Miguel Gonzalez (8 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) continues to roll with seven quality starts in nine outings since the start of August. He's 5-2 (team is 7-2) with a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP during this stretch that has included a pair of dominant performances over the Tampa Bay Rays, his Tuesday opponent. In these two meetings with Tampa, Gonzalez allowed just two runs on eight hits in 13 innings. And although his Baltimore Orioles are playoff-bound for the first time in 15 years, his team is still chasing an AL East title, having won 11 of 14 games to tie them atop the division. James Shields is usually a tough mound opponent, but Shields has been rocked by the O's in both of his starts against them this year, allowing 11 runs (nine earned) and 20 base-runners in 12 1/3 innings. Start Gonzalez in every fantasy format on Tuesday.
Barry Zito (25 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) continues to amaze, as the San Francisco Giants have won 10 straight games that Zito has started in. The left-hander has personally earned victories in each of his past four starts, toting a 2.19 ERA and allowing just one home run in these 24 2/3 innings. Zito has also pitched pretty well against the rival Los Angeles Dodgers this season with a 2.55 ERA in four starts. On Tuesday, he'll be opposed by Chris Capuano, who has struggled in his past seven starts (5.97 ERA), a slide that began with allowing six earned runs in five innings at home against San Francisco on Aug. 22. Considering the Giants' impressive late-season push (14-4, 5.4 runs per game, .818 OPS in past 18 games), Zito is worthy of a Tuesday start in most fantasy leagues.
Hisashi Iwakuma (19 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) has allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his past nine starts, going 6-2 with a 2.29 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 6.5 K's/9 during this stretch. Three of these starts have been against the Los Angeles Angels, his Tuesday opponent, and all resulted in quality outings and victories. Iwakuma is 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 14 K's and just one walk in these 20 1/3 innings. In addition to his dominance over the Angels, Iwakuma has also been outstanding in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field this year, going 5-3 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 7.7 K/9. Iwakuma may not beat Dan Haren and the surging Angels, but he should turn in a performance worthy of a start in the majority of fantasy formats.
Jacob Turner (1 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) is coming off a fantastic month of September, where he carted a 2.63 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in four starts, three versus teams that have already clinched playoff berths -- Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves. His strikeout rate wasn't great (5.3 K/9) but his control has been outstanding for such a young pitcher, as Turner has issued just nine walks over his past eight starts. Expect another strong outing against a weak New York Mets lineup that is 3-6 in its past nine road games, scoring just 3.2 runs per game with a slash of .228/.287/.359 during this span. Turner probably won't beat R.A. Dickey, but he is likely to help out in deeper fantasy leagues on Tuesday.
Hitter matchup ratings for October 2
| Overall | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | 6 | 9 | 3 | 2 | | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | |
| | 7 | 5 | 8 | 8 | | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | |
| | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | | 8 | 2 | 10 | 10 | |
| | 4 | 7 | 1 | 5 | | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | |
| | 7 | 9 | 4 | 7 | | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | |
| | 5 | 8 | 1 | 5 | | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | 5 | 6 | 3 | 8 | |
| | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| | 10 | 9 | 10 | 2 | | 10 | 7 | 10 | 3 | |
| | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4 | | 6 | 1 | 7 | 4 | |
| | 10 | 10 | 8 | 9 | | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | |
| | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | |
| | 6 | 7 | 4 | 6 | | 6 | 3 | 6 | 3 | |
| | 7 | 1 | 7 | 4 | | 8 | 6 | 9 | 5 | |
| | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | |
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. "LHB" and "RHB" ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. OPS is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.
• Entering Monday, Alex Rodriguez is just 10 for 39 (.256) with 10 strikeouts against the Red Sox this season. In his career against Tuesday's starter Jon Lester, Rodriguez has only 7 hits in 39 at-bats (.179) with 10 strikeouts.
• Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen is only 1-for-7 (.143/.333/.143) against Atlanta starter Tommy Hanson. Additionally, in Hanson's only other start against the Pirates this season, he pitched six innings while only giving up one earned run on six hits, on his way to earning the victory.
• Nelson Cruz is batting .316 against left-handed pitching through Sunday this season and only .245 against right-handed pitching. He faces Oakland lefty Travis Blackley on Tuesday night, against whom he is 4-for-7 with two doubles in his career.
• Shin-Soo Choo has 18 career at-bats against White Sox starter Jake Peavy, hitting .444/.524/.611, with a home run and two RBIs.
• R.A. Dickey has dominated the Marlins throughout his career, going 10-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 14 games (12 career starts) against them. This includes his ownership of them this season, where he is 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA in five starts against them.
• Andre Ethier is 7-for-41 (.171) with nine strikeouts against Barry Zito.
Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees: He's expected to return to action on Monday for the final series of the regular season versus Boston. He has been out since re-injuring his calf on Sept. 8.
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers: He suffered a strained left shoulder on Sunday, and it is unclear how long he'll be out of action.
Erick Aybar, SS, Angels: He strained his right quad on Sunday, but will probably play through the pain for the final series of the regular season.
Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds: He exited Sunday's game early with an injured groin, which occurred when he stumbled running around second base. The injury appears to be minor at this point and Phillips is not expected to miss more than one game.
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals: He left Sunday's game with a minor groin injury, but is not expected to miss any of the final three games this season.
Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies: His season is over after he broke his toe on Thursday when he dropped the lead pipe used for practice swings on his foot in the on-deck circle.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks: He did not play Saturday or Sunday due to a strained back, and it is unlikely that he'll play again this season.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals: He was diagnosed with a slightly torn rotator cuff and is likely done for the season.
Neil Walker, 2B, Pirates: He will not play for the rest of the season due to a herniated disc in his back.
Alcides Escobar, SS, Royals: He left Thursday's game with a strained right shoulder trying to make a diving play in the field, and has not played since. It doesn't appear likely that he'll play in the final series of 2012.
Mike Adams, RP, Rangers: A shoulder/neck injury called thoracic outlet syndrome will keep him off the mound for the rest of the regular season and possibly the playoffs as well.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies: He hasn't played since Sept. 23 due to inflammation behind his knee and likely will be shut down for the season.
Josh Willingham, OF, Twins: He injured his left shoulder after he slammed into the outfield fence on Sept. 24 and hasn't played since. He's not likely to play again this season.
Carlos Quentin, OF, Padres: Because of soreness in his surgically repaired left knee, Quentin will likely be used as strictly a pinch-hitter for the remainder of the season.
Jose Molina, C, Rays: He strained his right quad running to first base on Sept. 25, and it is unclear when he will be ready to return to the starting lineup.
Dexter Fowler, OF, Rockies: He has not started since Sept. 22 due to tendinitis in his left wrist. Although an MRI came back negative, his season is likely over.
